RADIO
We have made it to the Final 4, to Conference Title Weekend. The four best teams in the 2020 season made it to Championship Weekend, and we should be in store for some great football on Sunday. Both games have a spread of 3 with totals over 50. There should be some nice fantasy production in some close games if the desert's smart people are correct.
When initially looking at the Conference Title slate, there is value all over the place. The quarterback position has Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen's price high on DK, Mahomes, and Rogers on FD. This happens with a few players, so each site has some differing values. For QB, I will likely roster Rodgers or Tom Brady as both should be throwing back and forth on each other, whereas the KC/BUF game has a few more questions and weather involved. The RB position is all value wherever you look. The two major concerns are the rotations currently in Green Bay, which will keep me off Aaron Jones unless multi-entering and complete avoidance of the Buffalo situation as Allen will be the RB1. At WR, I will try and roster Devante Adams and Stefon Diggs everywhere I can. Both should feast, and there is plenty of value elsewhere. TE is all about Travis Kelce as Buffalo is getting torched by the TE. The position can also be used in the flex as a saving tool with Robert Tonyan or Brate. The bottom line is there is a ton of value on this slate, and you can plant your flag wherever you'd like. I am planting mine around Adams, Diggs, and Kelce.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's take a look at some DFS value plays for the Conference Championships of the 2020 NFL season.
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Aaron Rodgers, GB vs TB | DK: $6,500, FD: $8,700
It feels quite strange seeing Rodgers as a value any week, but this week he definitely is as he is priced as the third QB on DK. On FD, I would go with Brady, as Rodgers is priced up a bit more. Rodgers is the likely MVP this season and has been playing like one, scoring 25 or more fantasy points in three straight weeks and has scored 20 or more points in all but three games this season, that includes the playoffs. He will be going up against a Buccaneers Defense that ranks 15 on the season versus quarterbacks, allowing nearly two passing touchdowns per game and 20 fantasy points per game. Rodgers will be looking for payback for the Week 6 beat down in Tampa, and I expect that to happen. The Packers have a 28 point implied team total, and the Buccaneers have a strong rush defense, lining things up for a BIG Rodgers game on Sunday.
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Leonard Fournette, TB at GB | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,200
"Playoff Lenny" has entered the weekly fold when it comes to value plays, and this week he has another great matchup to make value once again. He has scored over 20 fantasy points in each playoff game this season and now faces a Packers Defense that ranks 27 on the season versus running backs. They allow 90 rushing yards per game, but more importantly, over five receptions per game to opposing backs, which turns into over 25 fantasy points per game. Last week the Buccaneers used Fournette and Ronald Jones II in a near split, with Fournette seeing 17 carries and Jones 13. The major separator was that Fournette was the main back in the passing game accounting for five receptions on six targets. That is back to back weeks with at least four targets for Fournette. In a game where the Buccaneers will attempt to keep up with the Packers, look for Fournette to be used a lot, especially in the passing game.
Darrel Williams, KC vs BUF | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,000
Williams is a great play if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out again on Sunday. With CEH out, Williams ten or more carries and four catches in each game for at least 10 fantasy points in each contest. Even if CEH is back, Williams makes for an interesting GPP play, but if CEH is out, you can lock Williams in your lineups. He will be facing a Bills Defense that, on average, has allowed over 100 rushing yards and over 25 fantasy points per game over the last four games. The Chiefs will look to move the ball early and often against a Bills defense strong against the pass but suspect against the run. Look for Williams to get his 10+ touches with ease if he gets the start.
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Chris Godwin, TB at GB | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,800
Jaire Alexander will lock down Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown is out for Sunday's game so lock in Godwin. He will be chalky but makes for excellent chalk. Godwin has seven or more targets in four straight games, four touchdowns in the last four games (did not score last week), and has double-digit fantasy points in three of four games. In the postseason, he has seen nearly 27% of the team's target share, which is likely to go up on Sunday. Lock in Godwin and move on.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Allen Lazard, GB vs TB | DK: $3,900/$4,200, FD: $5,500/$5,700
Adams is the main play when it comes to the Packers receivers, but Lazard and MVS are great values. Both saw over 35% of the team's air yards and nearly 24% of the team's target share last week versus the Rams. The differentiating factor was Lazard saw 60% of the red-zone targets compared to only 20% for MVS. In the Week 6 loss to the Buccaneers, Lazard missed an injury, but MVS saw over 43% of the team's targets, with Adams seeing 25%. Look for MVS and Lazard to both see at least 25% or more of the team's targets, maybe find the end zone and easily pay off their discounted price tags.
Gabriel Davis, BUF at KC | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,000
Most are targeting the discounted price on John Brown, looking for a bounce back. I get it, and it is not a bad play, but Davis has massive tournament appeal at an even bigger discount. Through the first two playoff games, Brown has seen nearly 22% of the target share compared to Davis's 12%, but Davis sees 22% of the red-zone targets compared to Brown's 11%. Davis has seen four or more targets in every game since Week 12, and he should be inline for more the same as the Bills will be throwing a lot with a depleted backfield and attempting to keep up with the Chiefs. Davis is on the injury report but should play; if so, he makes for a strong tournament value.
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Cameron Brate, TB at GB | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,000
Kelce and Robert Tonyan will be the two popular tight end plays, and rightfully so, but do not sleep on Brate. Brate has come on during the postseason with four catches and at least five targets in each game. He is third on the team with a near 16% target share and has a nice 10% red-zone target share. With Evans getting the Alexander treatment and AB missing the game, look for Brate to find a few more targets on his way to a solid value game for your lineups. Besides a straight-up value in your TE spot, Brate makes for a nice value if also using Kelce or Tonyan, preferably Kelce.
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