RADIO
We are close to nearing the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season already and we have also been given a better glimpse of who the contenders and pretenders are across the league, as well as the tendencies of coaches and what we can expect from certain offenses. This week the good news is the Bills, Vikings, Eagles, and Rams all come off of a bye while the Chargers and Chiefs are the only teams on a bye in Week 8. Being that Travis Kelce is on a bye and Mark Andrews already played on TNF, finding good value on the cheap at the tight end position will be paramount for us in the Sunday Slate.
Last week was another good week as far as DFS values were concerned. Some of whom I suggested were Jimmy Garoppolo (QB9), Kenneth Walker III (RB3), Travis Etienne Jr. (RB9), Ezekiel Elliott (RB10), and Gerald Everett (TE8). While the QB9 might not seem like a big deal, it was a nice boost for your lineups since Jimmy G. only cost $5,500 on FD and $7,200 on DK. The season of Ken Walker is upon us as the talented rookie has been mowing down everything in his path. I promise to do a better job on the wide receivers as that has been my point of weakness in DFS over the last two weeks.
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. If you didn't catch my Week 1 article that included some DFS tips and tricks, it can be found here. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends based on DraftKings salaries. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must and we should be looking for players with higher guaranteed floors (and consistency) to get us over the 50/50 hump in cash games. No matter which one you decide to play this week, here are some bargain players with potential in Week 8. Now let's get to those picks already!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 8
Jared Goff, DET vs MIA | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,300
An early season favorite in this column, Goff exploded in Week 4 against the Seattle Seahawks where he was 26 of 39 for 378 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT. Since then his price was no longer a bargain in DFS and the Lions' offense scored a total of 6 offensive points in their last two games. However, the Lions were on a bye in Week 6 and the Goff has been without D'Andre Swift and emerging star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, so it's understandable why some of the production has dropped off from their offense.
At this stage of his career, we know who Jared Goff is. He is a good quarterback when he has a strong supporting cast and an offensive coordinator who is good at dialing up plays for him. He is not the kind of QB who is going to solely put a team on his back, as evidenced by his less-than-stellar performances in Weeks 5 and 7. Nonetheless, the Lions have still been one of the better offenses in the league this season at full strength and we shouldn't let the past two weeks scare us off.
This week the Lions have their core of star players coming back healthy to play a Miami Dolphins defense that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. This Sunday's game is a big one for Dan Campbell, Jared Goff, and the Lions who need to rally the troops and put some wins on the board so that ownership continues to give them time to clean up Matt Patricia's awful mess that was the football equivalent of the BP Oil Spill. I like what the Lions are building even though it hasn't been reflected in the standings yet. Give them time.
Sam Ehlinger, IND vs WAS | DK: $4,000, FD: $6,000
Now before you think I've completely lost it, just hear me out, alright? Lamar Jackson has already played on TNF, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are both on a bye, and the only two expensive quarterbacks on the Sunday Slate are Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray, both of whom will be rostered on a lot of teams this week, especially in cash games. If we are going to enter a GPP (guaranteed prize pool) or DFS tournament of some kind, we always want to get a little differentiation from the rest of the market.
After starter Matt Ryan disappointed early on this season on top of separating his shoulder, the Colts decided they'd had enough. After starting 3-3-1, the Colts have now turned to second-year man, Sam Ehlinger. Colts General Manager Chris Ballard has done a good job for the most part, but ever since Andrew Luck abruptly retired before the 2019 season, the Colts have been stuck in a QB purgatory of sorts. Their roster was far too good at the time to rebuild, but they weren't able to make any moves at QB that resembled any more than putting a band-aid over the obvious problem, and here they are three years later stuck in neutral.
In steps Sam Ehlinger, a sixth-round pick of the Colts in 2021. After largely starting the better part of four seasons at Texas, Ehlinger passed for 11,436 yards and 94 TDs while rushing for a total of 1,903 yards and 33 TDs over his college career. While he isn't an amazing athlete by any means, Ehlinger is the kind of quarterback who isn't afraid to use his legs to make plays and could use that to your advantage in fantasy.
He has a decent supporting cast around him in Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and even Parris Campbell who showed some flashes as a second-round selection before injuries derailed his early NFL career. The Colts are at home and face a Commanders team who will be starting Taylor Heinicke on the other side. Geno Smith would likely have been back on this list, but D.K. Metcalf likely won't play this week and Tyler Lockett has also had a lingering hamstring issue. I'm willing to roll the dice on Sammy E this week and see where the dust settles.
Honorable Mention: Malik Willis, TEN at HOU | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,700
(Updated 10/29/2022)
Starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill was ruled out with an illness, as well as a lingering foot injury. In steps Willis, who was a 3rd Round selection of the Colts in the 2022 NFL Draft after a successful career at Liberty. Malik rushed for 1,822 yards and 27 TDs in his final two seasons at Liberty. While many scouts viewed him coming into the NFL as a prospect, when you watch him on tape he stands out.
Willis showed some flashes during the preseason, but many weren't sure if he would be ready in Year One. Tomorrow is a big test for him against an inferior Houston Texans team and he could be awesome for fantasy with his dual threat ability. If you want to go with Willis at $5k instead of Ehlinger at $4k to chase the higher upside that is completely understandable.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 8
Tony Pollard, DAL vs CHI | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,300
There is a good chance that Ezekiel Elliott may not play this week, which greatly opens things up for Pollard to shine. Last week against the Lions, Pollard rushed 12 times for 83 yards while hauling in 2 passes for 26 yards. The issue with Pollard has never been with talent, but rather the amount that the Cowboys are invested in Elliott from a financial standpoint means that Pollard will likely never overtake him until the day Zeke is gone.
This season Pollard is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has 11 receptions for 105 yards out of the backfield. When he touches the ball he flies upfield and makes plays. If Zeke is sidelined he is likely to play at least 70 percent of the team's offensive snaps on Sunday, maybe more. While the Bears haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to running backs so far this season, it's likely due to the slow pace of games that the Bears have been involved in. Up until their most recent victory against the Patriots on MNF, the Bears' offense has been putrid.
Tony P feels like an absolute smash this week if Zeke isn't playing. Keep an eye on this one though. If Zeke suits up you'll likely be better off playing another RB in this spot instead.
Raheem Mostert, MIA at DET | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800
One of the most underrated fantasy additions so far this season has undoubtedly been Mostert. The 30-year-old RB has completely taken over the Miami backfield this season. On SNF versus the Steelers, Mostert rushed 16 times for 79 yards and caught 4 passes for 30 yards and a TD. The Dolphins signed Chase Edmonds this offseason to a two-year, $12.6 million contract and the expectation was that he would be the lead back on the team, but so far that hasn't happened.
Mostert was great for the 49ers during their Super Bowl run in 2019 when he rushed for 772 yards and 8 TDs and had a successful 2020 campaign before injuries kept him out for half of the year. In 2021, he played in just one game and many felt that at the age of 29 his career was over. Mostert was free in fantasy drafts this summer and yet he has played 68.5 percent of the offensive snaps!
With Tua Tagovailoa back healthy again, the Dolphins' offense has plenty of fantasy value. Miami is currently 4-3 and we know that head coach Mike McDaniel likes to ride the hot hand. As long as Mostert is healthy and playing at such a high level he is worth being in your lineup as a solid RB2 with upside every week. Even at 30 years old he is still one of the fastest players in the NFL and has the kind of speed that can break one to the house at any time. I will be starting Mostert everywhere I can. Putting players in your fantasy lineups who are playing the Lions has been a relative sort of fantasy cheat code so far this season.
D'Onta Foreman, CAR at ATL | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,400
With Christian McCaffrey now with the 49ers and running back Chuba Hubbard sidelined this week, the bulks of the carries should go to Foreman in a juicy matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. What's even crazier is that the winner of this game will likely be in first place in the NFC South. What episode of the Twilight Zone are we in?
I know what you're thinking: Foreman hasn't been a great player for fantasy and now you're asking me to start him in DFS? Opportunity has always mattered more for running backs than talent for fantasy purposes and Foreman should see plenty of the team's touches at running back this Sunday. Last week against the reeling Buccaneers' defense, Foreman rushed 15 times for 118 yards while hauling in 2 receptions for 27 yards.
Foreman had some NFL pedigree when he first came into the league with the Texans in 2017, but he ruptured his Achilles tendon four years ago and has struggled to get back to form. Last year in Tennessee he started to get back to his old self rushing 133 times for 566 yards and 3 TDs. So far this season Foreman is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on just 27 rushing attempts. If you need a bargain RB for this week Foreman fits the bill.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 8
DJ Moore, CAR at ATL | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,200
Wide receiver has easily been the most difficult of the four positions to pick from as far as DFS values go as players who are only at $5,500 and under on DraftKings qualify for the weekly column. DJ Moore has disappointed plenty of fantasy managers so far this season, but it's not his fault he's been largely held back by poor quarterback play. With CMC now traded to San Francisco, things should open up more for Moore strictly by default as he has no major competition for targets right now.
Last week Moore was able to get going a little bit against Tampa Bay where he saw 10 targets while catching 7 of them for 69 yards and a TD. While P. J. Walker appears to be the starting quarterback for the time being, the wily veteran has proven that he can move the ball downfield and isn't any worse than any of the other QBs that Moore has been stuck with.
While the QB issue may scare some people off for DFS, it's always important to remember that it's also built into his very affordable price. Luckily, the Falcons are giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season at 38.4 per game! Things couldn't be turning more in DJM's favor right now and I plan to take advantage. See what I did there?
Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG at SEA | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,900
After Kadarius Toney was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this week it has become clear that at least for right now the Giants view Robinson as the No. 1 WR on the team, which is a huge boost for his fantasy value. In the two weeks since Robinson has been back from injury, he has seen a total of 12 targets where he caught 9 of them for 87 yards and a TD. However, in Week 6 against Baltimore, he only played 23 percent of the team's offensive snaps but that number was ramped up to 69 percent last week in a victory over the Jaguars.
A second-round pick of the Giants in 2022, Robinson was the star of training camp before injuries caught up to him in Week 1. Daniel Jones has been better than he was last season, but the Giants haven't been able to get their passing game going with just about all their entire WR corps sidelined with injuries. With Sterling Shepard done for the year, the Giants have been trotting out Richie James, David Sills V, and Darius Slayton while veteran Kenny Golladay still finds himself in head coach Brian Daboll's doghouse.
Wan'Dale probably has a little bit more value in full PPR formats right now since he will likely be playing in the slot, but he could be an absolute PPR machine in the second half of the season much like Hunter Renfrow was last year. Off to a 6-1 start, the Giants have been one of the nicer surprises of the season so far, but they are going to need to get their passing game going more if they are going to beat the elite quarterbacks in the league, which is hopefully where Robinson comes in.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs NE | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,400
My favorite rookie wide receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft, Wilson broke out in Week 2 where he put up 8 catches for 102 yards and 2 TDs in a miraculous comeback victory over the Cleveland Browns. Wilson also saw a total of 14 targets in that game. However, since Zach Wilson's return to action in Week 4, the Jets haven't been passing anywhere near as much in the last month as they have been dominating opponents en route to a 4-0 win streak. It appears that good football is back in New York for both teams. Congratulations to all of you in the Big Apple who aren't Yankees fans, otherwise I want to see you suffer. Just kidding.
Over the last month with Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson has only seen a total of 19 targets and his fantasy production has diminished. In his defense, running back Breece Hall was running wild all over defenses everywhere, so there was no need for the Jets to get cute especially in the air while they are trying to teach their second-year quarterback to play mistake-free football and to get away from playing too much hero ball where he forced too many passes into double coverage that he shouldn't have as a rookie in 2021.
While the Jets slowing down the pace over the last month hasn't been great for fantasy, Breece Hall was tragically lost for the season last week with an ACL injury and veteran wide receiver Corey Davis has also been ruled out of this week's contest. These factors help to open up things more for Garrett Wilson, who has the kind of talent that is going to take over on Sundays before too long. I'm willing to give the Jets a pass for their offense over the last month and bet on talent with Garrett Wilson. He is special.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 8
Tyler Higbee, LAR at SF | DK: $4,200, FD: $6,000
The tight end position has been nothing short of a war of attrition so far this season With Kelce and Andrews shining, but not much else. This week is no exception as we would like to be as frugal as possible at the position so that we can use our resources to load up elsewhere. The Rams come off a much-needed bye week at 3-3 to face their rival San Francisco 49ers this week, who have one of the better defenses and pass rushes so far this season. Wait, that's a bad thing for fantasy right? Not necessarily.
One of the things that have been hurting Matthew Stafford's fantasy production has been his lingering elbow injury as well as the Rams' offensive line playing poorly right now. If Stafford isn't going to have much time to throw, especially against the 49ers we could see a large amount of dink-and-dunk type of passes to Higbee that we have seen earlier this season. Through the first 5 weeks of the 2022 season, Higbee saw a total of 48 targets where he caught 33 of them for 290 yards. While he is still without a TD, he is inevitably due for some positive regression in that area.
There is a chance that Higbee is asked more to block this week against the likely of Nick Bosa, which could potentially hurt his value on Sunday. Let's be honest about it though, we don't have too many options at TE this week and I'll bet on Sean McVay having his team healthier and ready to go coming off the bye.
Irv Smith Jr., MIN vs ARI | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,000
The running joke in fantasy is that you always want to play whatever tight end is playing against the Cardinals, and it's been going on for years. So far this season the Cards are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends at 16.9 points per game! While Smith has been a little slow to get out of the gates so far this season, he still feels like a great bargain at $3,500 on DraftKings and just $5k on FanDuel!
In 6 games this season Smith has seen a total of 29 targets, good for just about 5 per game. He has 18 total receptions for 140 yards and 2 TDs. Smith had a meniscus injury that kept him out of the entire 2021 season. While he is still at-best third in the Vikings' pecking order for receptions right now, we should see a shootout of sorts between the Cards and Vikings on Sunday. Minnesota is currently 5-1 under new head coach Kevin O'Connell and their offense has been great. For this reason, it feels worth rolling the dice on Smith at such a cheap price.
Thank you for reading my weekly article. Please send me a message on Twitter if you have any more DFS or Start/Sit questions. Best of luck this week!
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