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The long wait is over, RotoBallers! NFL DFS is back, and we're here to guide you through week one and find the sneakiest sleeper values to help you take down your favorite contest. If you're playing cash games, you don't have to have the top QB or RB of the week. But in Guaranteed Prize Pool's (GPP's)? The best way to go is to focus on players with the highest potential upside for their DFS price.
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS (based on DraftKings salaries) for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must.
It's crucial to prioritize players with higher guaranteed floors and consistency to increase our chances of winning cash games. No matter which game you choose, these picks will come in handy. So, without further ado, let's dive in!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Russell Wilson, DEN vs. LV| DK: $5,900, FD: $7,300
Has anyone heard anything positive about Wilson lately? Me neither, and if there was ever a time to buy low on the Denver QB, it's now. There is much to prove in Denver, and a strong opening game versus the Raiders is the place to start. Wilson could be without Jerry Jeudy but will have Courtland Sutton and tight-end sleeper Adam Trautman.
During the off-season, the Denver Broncos were putting a lot of emphasis on their running game; however, their offense also prioritizes short passes. During the second half of the 2022 season, the Las Vegas Raiders' defense had difficulties defending against quick passes on first down. Sutton and Trautman could have the opportunity to do some sneaky damage versus the Silver and Black on Sunday.
Baker Mayfield, TB @ MIN | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,300
There's a new sheriff..., er, Buccaneer, in town, and while he's no Tom Brady, he still has Brady's treasure trove of targets (ok, I'll stop). Chris Godwin and Mike Evans return as two of Mayfield's top receivers in what could become a shootout in Minnesota if Tampa Bay is playing catchup for most of the game.
Mayfield is another quarterback looking for a fresh start. After winning the starting job in Tampa Bay, he and his receivers feel confident heading into the new season. "I know how talented I am," said Mayfield, "I know what type of leader I am. Now it's time for the real thing. We're about to have the real games and everybody's excited here."
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Raheem Mostert, MIA @ LAC| DK: $5,400, FD: $5,900
Mostert and the Dolphins are facing a Chargers rush defense with a history of struggling to contain running backs. Mostert has plenty of opportunities for touches and touchdowns with a close spread (LAC -3) and an over/under of 51, allowing him to make an early statement.
Mostert added 10 pounds to his previous 205-pound frame, possibly the biggest he's been throughout his career. When asked why, he replied: "Just for my own personal use. I feel like last year I utilized my strength a little bit more, but this year, you know, I wanted to bulk up and be able to have durability for myself in the game." Miami will most likely be without Jeff Wilson, Jr. for most, if not all, of the season, making Mostert the Fins feature back for the foreseeable future.
Jamaal Williams, NO vs. TEN | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,800
Alvin Kamara is serving a suspension for the first three games of the season for his involvement in a 2022 Las Vegas altercation. Williams will be the starting running back for those three games for the New Orleans Saints. He won't be the only RB, but he should be the goal-line back these first few games.
Williams played 17 games last year, with 262 carries for 1,066 yards and scoring 17 touchdowns. RotoBaller projections have Williams scoring 12.59 fantasy points, more than enough value (2x and then some) for cash games. His possible ceiling of 19 gets you to almost 4x value, and while that's not enough to break the slate, it's a solid number for tournaments.
Miles Sanders, CAR @ ATL| DK: $5,600, FD: $6,900
The Carolina Panthers were ranked ninth in the NFL for rushing yards per game in 2022, averaging 130.0 yards and scoring 16 touchdowns on the ground. Sanders is looking to be a core contributor to the team's rushing attack, and the Panthers believe he can make a significant impact. "We do feel like Miles has the opportunity and potential to be one of our playmakers," Panthers head coach Frank Reich said.
The three-down back will also be a big part of the passing game, and the Panthers are looking for him to help with an offense led by rookie and number-one draft pick Bryce Young. Keeping Young healthy and in one piece is key to Carolina's success this season, and Sanders will be an integral part of that plan.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Zay Jones, JAX @ IND| DK: $4,500, FD: $5,600
Jones has a RotoBaller projection of just 6.33, which I suspect has to do with the fact that Calvin Ridley is expected to take a big bite out of Jones' targets this year. Jones was a red-zone favorite of Trevor Lawrence last year. The expectation is that his high numbers from last year will most certainly drop with Ridley in the picture.
This is exactly the sort of talk that makes me want to roster Jones in some of my tournament lineups this week. His projected ceiling is 18, and if he can achieve that number (4x value), he may even surpass it since reaching his ceiling indicates that he's the preferred target that day. At only 3% ownership, he's a great sleeper value this weekend.
Rashid Shaheed, NO vs. TEN| DK: $3,400, FD: $5,400
I have to target this game again because all I have read leading up to the draft is, and I'm paraphrasing, "Draft Chris Olave, all day, all the time." While I don't disagree with that point, Shaheed has quietly been building chemistry with Derek Carr, and at 2.1% projected ownership, the speedy wide receiver could go under the radar as a third piece of a Saints stack or as a runback of a Titans stack.
Shaheed had been dealing with a groin injury but is not on the team's Week 1 injury report and is now on track to suit up against the Tennessee Titans.
Nico Collins, HOU @ BAL| DK: $4,700, FD: $5,800
When scanning prices, stats, and news on Nico Collins, what I see doesn't make sense: Houston's number-one receiver is priced at just $4,700 on DraftKings. Maybe that's due to Collins dealing with injuries for part of the 2022 campaign? Nevertheless, he was able to increase his weekly production to 48.1 yards per game last year despite the offensive struggles of the Texans.
Collins showed great chemistry with CJ Stroud during the preseason and is projected for 9.69 points this weekend with a possible ceiling of 19, making him one of my favorite values at wide receiver this week.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Dalton Kincaid, BUF @ NYJ| DK: $3,100, FD: $4,800
The scuttlebutt on Kincaid is that the Bills might use Dawson Knox more for blocking and let the rookie have more pass-catching opportunities at the beginning of this year's campaign. If that's the case, Kincaid could be in for a huge beginning of the season, which could start in a possible shootout Monday night at Met Life Stadium versus the Jets.
The sneaky rookie TE is projected for 7.31 points with a possible ceiling of 13, which would be over 4x value in tournaments and a safe, low-owned bet in cash games. He'll be in several of my tournament lineups this weekend (for Thurs-Mon slates)
Jake Ferguson, NYG @ DAL| DK: $3,200, FD: $4,700
Dak Prescott is a believer in TE Ferguson. "I think he's close to becoming a big-time guy," Prescott told reporters a few weeks ago. With no Dalton Schultz this year to take targets away, the opportunities the sophomore tight-end missed last year have already shown themselves in the preseason opener when Ferguson had three catches for 38 yards.
Ferguson is projected for 7.31 points at Jerry World on Sunday night. As far as I'm concerned, he is the sleeper TE of the weekend, and this might be the last time he goes overlooked.
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