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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Titans vs. Dolphins showdown slate on 12/11/2023. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article, as we have a double-decker of games tonight. We'll start out down south as Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans (4-8) will head to Miami to take on Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins (9-3).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Titans vs. Dolphins NFL DFS showdown slate on December 11. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Derrick Henry - RB, $14,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 197 rushing attempts, 841 rushing yards, 28 targets, 22 receptions, 185 receiving yards, nine touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -1.94%
I'll start things off on the Tennessee side of things with Derrick Henry. Tonight, Henry projects to 58.58 rushing yards on 16 carries as well as 12.34 receiving yards on 1.55 receptions (2.26 targets) and 0.47 total touchdowns. The Dolphins struggle against the run, ranking 20th in DVOA, which gives the Titans' rushing offense a chance for some positive regression. I would expect Tennessee to try to control the clock with the run game, so Henry should see some serious volume here.
Tyreek Hill - WR, $18,000 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 127 targets, 93 receptions, 1,481 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns, four fumbles lost.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 37.97%
Flipping the field, I'll take a look at who else but Tyreek Hill. Not surprisingly, Hill is the highest-projected scorer on the slate. My model has him catching 8.59 of his 11.23 targets for 118.49 receiving yards and 0.72 touchdowns. He's the consensus number-one receiver among ALL games this week and takes on a Titans defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1s. I would be shocked if Hill doesn't have a massive game in this spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, DeAndre Hopkins
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DFS Flex Plays
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, $10,600 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,457 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, ten interceptions, 27 rushing attempts, 40 rushing yards, four fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 50.85%
Throwing Hill attempts with the ball will be Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is the second-highest projected player in this game, as he projects to complete 23.93 of his 35.96 attempts for 300.62 yards and 2.08 touchdowns. He'll take on a Titans defense that's just brutal against the passing game, and come into this one ranked 30th in the NFL against the pass. For what it's worth, the Titans are the best in the league in rushing DVOA, proving this to be a massive passing funnel.
Jaylen Waddle - WR, $9,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 83 targets, 57 receptions, 743 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 30.54%
With that said, I'll take a look at another one of Tua's pass-catchers in Jaylen Waddle. Waddle has kind of taken a back seat simply due to the insane year that Hill is having, but I don't think that's any reason to shy away from him here. He projects to 7.09 receptions on 7.79 targets for 88.77 yards and 0.58 touchdowns. Despite the Titans ranking 21st in the NFL against WR2s, I still think that Waddle is in a top-five matchup in this one.
Other Flex Options: De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, DeAndre Hopkins
DFS Value Plays
Miami Dolphins - D/ST, $5,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20.16 points per game allowed, 41 sacks, 10 interceptions, five fumble recoveries, three defensive touchdowns.
I'll be heavy on the Dolphins' offense in this one, so I'll be backing the Miami defense here. Sure, they struggled a bit early on in the year. However, Vic Fangio has this defense on all-systems-go at this point. The Titans are not-so-great offensively, ranking 22nd in the league in offensive DVOA. It could be a long night for Will Levis, as Miami projects to a staggering 41.28% pressure rate and 11.59% sack rate.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - TE, $4,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 55 targets, 35 receptions, 313 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 14.17%
I'll wrap things up with one of my favorite players in the league, Chigoziem Okonkwo. This is more of a matchup-based read than a projection one, as Okonkwo projects to just 2.56 receptions on 4.39 targets for 27 yards and 0.17 touchdowns. With all of that said, I just mentioned that the Dolphins' defensive line will likely be all over Will Levis. Not only that, Miami ranks 27th in DVOA against the position.
Other Value Plays: Durham Smythe, Jason Sanders
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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