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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Steelers vs. Ravens Showdown slate Week 16 (Dec. 21, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a MASSIVE AFC North showdown on a Saturday afternoon as Russell Wilson and the Steelers (10-4) head down to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (9-5). This game is effectively for the AFC North title, making this an elite matchup between two elite teams. Let’s see how it plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Steelers vs. Ravens NFL DFS showdown slate on December 21. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Lamar Jackson - QB, $18,300 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 3,580 passing yards, 34 passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 117 rushing attempts, 743 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 58.95%
I’ll start this slate off with Lamar Jackson. Lamar and the Ravens came up short against the Steelers in Week 11. It was Lamar’s worst game from a fantasy perspective. Given all that's on the line, I trust he’ll bounce back tonight, and keep the momentum rolling off of his five-touchdown game last week.
Lamar Jackson: 97.1 PFF Grade on 10+ yard throws this season
1st among all QBs 🐦⬛ pic.twitter.com/NvLKv1zmcZ
— PFF (@PFF) December 20, 2024
My model projects him to throw for 234.23 yards and 1.68 touchdowns to 0.74 interceptions. He projects to add 50.04 yards on 8.16 rushing attempts and 0.29 rushing touchdowns.
Mark Andrews - TE, $9,600 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 53 targets, 45 receptions, 514 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -3.2%
I’ll look to either pivot off of Lamar with Mark Andrews or stack the two in the same lineup. After a relatively slow start to the season, we’ve begun to see “vintage” Mark Andrews, particularly in the touchdown department, as he’s caught at least one touchdown in seven of his last nine games. Ironically, one of the games where he didn’t catch a touchdown was against this Steelers team a few weeks back.
My model projects to catch 4.71 of 6.02 targets for 49.33 yards and 0.41 touchdowns in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: Derrick Henry, Russell Wilson, Pat Freiermuth, Zay Flowers
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Russell Wilson - QB, $9,800 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 1,912 passing yards, 13 passing yards, three interceptions, 30 rushing attempts, 57 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 14.75%
I’ll flip the field and take a look at Russell Wilson next. Similarly to Lamar Jackson, Wilson had his worst game of his 2024 campaign against this Steelers defense in Week 11. While Lamar is coming off a massive game, Wilson had a tough go of things against Philadelphia last week. We’ll look for him to bounce back in this one.
My model projects Wilson to throw for 233.25 passing yards and 1.52 touchdowns to just 0.44 interceptions. The Baltimore defense has been strong against quarterbacks over the last month, but they’re due for some heavy regression and I’ll bet on Wilson to turn in a strong performance.
Derrick Henry - RB, $7,600 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 254 rushing attempts, 1,474 rushing yards, 15 targets, 13 receptions, 125 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 11.38%
I’ll run back over to the Baltimore side (no pun intended) and look at Derrick Henry next. I don’t want to say that Henry is slowing down as the season is progressing as that would be unfair to say, but his volume is decreasing as the Ravens want to keep him fresh for what they hope to be a deep playoff run. However, given what’s on the line in this game, I imagine Henry will be a large part of this Ravens offense.
My model projects Henry to run for 84.24 yards on 17.4 attempts and catch 1.1 of 1.2 targets for 8.03 yards, totaling 1.02 touchdowns. The Steelers' defense did well to keep Saquon Barkley under wraps last week, but they shouldn’t be able to duplicate that performance here.
Other Flex Options: Zay Flowers, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Pat Freiermuth - TE, $5,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 56 targets, 47 receptions, 492 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 14%
I’ll look at a pair of Steelers pass-catchers in my value spots. We’ll start with Pat Freiermuth, who has turned in four consecutive solid performances after catching each of his targets for just 14 yards against the Ravens in Week 11. In his last three games, he’s caught 12 of 17 targets for 138 yards and three touchdowns.
#Steelers QB Russell Wilson praises TE Pat Freiermuth amid his 3-game TD streak.
“Pat Freiermuth’s on fire.”
Pat from his locker 🗣️ “Oh yeah, say it again!”
“He wants me to say it again. Pat Freiermuth’s on fire. … He was one of the reasons why I was excited to come here.” pic.twitter.com/hAxUMNFrpW
— Aaron Becker (@Aaron_M_Becker) December 18, 2024
In this one, my model projects Freiermuth 3.99 of 5.27 targets for 42.18 yards and 0.36 touchdowns.
Calvin Austin III - WR $5,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 47 targets, 28 receptions, 452 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 25%
I’ll wrap things up with Calvin Austin III. While my model lists Austin as the Steelers’ top receiver with George Pickens dealing with a hamstring injury, I wouldn’t necessarily consider Austin a “WR1”. Nevertheless, the hope is that Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh passing offense can take advantage of this Ravens defense that, despite playing well lately, ranks toward the bottom of the league in most stats against receivers this season.
My model projects Austin to catch 3.63 of 5.03 targets for 48.92 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. With his explosive play ability and involvement on special teams, Austin has a real chance to find the end zone in this one.
Other Value Options: Justice Hill, Mike Williams, Isaiah Likely, Van Jefferson
Have a good week, everyone!
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