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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Saints vs. Packers MNF Showdown slate Week 16 (Dec. 23, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an NFC showdown tonight as Spencer Rattler and the banged-up New Orleans Saints (5-9) head to Lambeau to take on Jordan Love and the Packers (10-4). The Packers are poised to solidify themselves as the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs, while the Saints hope to make it through the remainder of the season without any more significant injuries. Let’s see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saints vs. Packers MNF DFS showdown slate on December 23. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jordan Love - QB, $15,900 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 2,953 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 23 rushing attempts, 75 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 40.15%
I’ll start the slate off with Jordan Love. Despite the Week 14 loss to Detroit, Love and the Packers are gearing up for another playoff stretch akin to the similar run we saw out of them last year. He’ll take on a Saints defense that ranks a respectable 12th in DVOA against the pass, but it’ll be a tall task to keep this Packers offense at bay, no pun intended.
Jordan Love in his career:
Not During Toyotathon:
- 3,829 yards
- 29 TDs
- 25 INTsDuring Toyotathon:
- 3,283 yards
- 26 TDs
- 2 INTs pic.twitter.com/9kggGrXLph— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) December 23, 2024
My model projects Love to throw for 251.43 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns to just 0.56 interceptions, adding 15.83 yards and 0.1 touchdowns rushing on 3.09 attempts.
Josh Jacobs - RB, $17,400 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 265 rushing attempts, 1,147 rushing yards, 38 targets, 31 receptions, 302 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 19.78%
I’ll stick with the Pack, a trend you’ll see quite a bit in this article. While Love and the Green Bay pass catchers’ ceiling is potentially hampered by the game script, that game script will benefit Josh Jacobs greatly. Jacobs is on an absolute tear and now takes on this Saints' defense that ranks 30th against the run.
"He's almost like Wolverine. His body just keeps regenerating itself and he's good to go."
1 RT = 1 #ProBowlVote for Josh Jacobs! pic.twitter.com/wUxiCKBKa4
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 20, 2024
My model projects Jacobs to run for 90.41 yards and 1.02 touchdowns while adding 2.39 receptions on 3.28 targets for 18.15 yards.
Other Captains/MVPs: Christian Watson, Kendre Miller, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Christian Watson - WR, $8,000 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 51 targets, 29 receptions, 620 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs Other WR: 1.3%
Despite my previous comments about the potentially capped ceiling of the Green Bay passing game, I’ll look at a pair of Packer receivers in my flex spots. We’ll start with Christian Watson, a true “boom-or-bust” option in this arena. I like taking a shot on Watson here because he doesn’t need a ton of volume to make an impact in your lineup.
My model projects Watson to catch 3.82 of 5.13 targets for 58.54 yards and 0.41 touchdowns tonight.
Jayden Reed - WR, $9,000 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 16 rushing attempts, 155 rushing yards, 65 targets, 49 receptions, 727 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -29.5%
I’ll take a look at Jayden Reed next. Reed comes into this showdown as the most expensive option in Green Bay’s receiver room, and while he technically has the worst matchup among all pass catchers, I think this matchup benefits Reed more than the likes of Watson and Romeo Doubs. Reed’s ability to work as a “gadget” weapon rather than a pure receiver raises his ceiling in what could be a rout.
My model projects Reed to run the ball 2.11 times for 16.23 yards, adding 4.05 receptions on 5.98 targets for 62.33 yards and 0.47 total touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Kendre Miller, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Juwan Johnson - TE, $4,400 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 47 targets, 36 receptions, 375 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 5.7%
I’ll look at my first New Orleans option of the night in the form of Juwan Johnson. While he performed quietly against the Commanders last week, Johnson has put together a solid stretch over the past month. Johnson caught 12 of 15 targets for 116 yards and two touchdowns in the three games before Week 15.
Green Bay Packers - D/ST, $6,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 19.64 points per game allowed, 40 sacks, 14 interceptions, 12 fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown.
I’ll wrap things up with the Green Bay Packers defense. This defense has been impressive in 2024, keeping the team in games while the offense sustained growing pains (and a backup quarterback for a short stretch). They’ll now take on a Saints offense that is missing their starting quarterback, running back, top two receivers, and whatever Taysom Hill is.
Another thing worth mentioning when discussing this matchup is that not only are the Saints a southern team, they’re a dome team, too. I have to imagine the chilliness of Lambeau won’t be any sort of “warm welcome” for the Saints.
Other Value Options: Dontayvion Wicks, Foster Moreau, Brandon McManus, Tucker Kraft
Have a good week, everyone!
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