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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Chiefs vs. Steelers Christmas Day Showdown slate Week 17 (Dec. 25, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back and Merry Christmas, Rotoballers! We have a fun Christmas Day showdown here between two teams that could meet in the AFC playoffs in a few weeks, as Patrick Mahomes and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) head to the Steel City to take on Russell Wilson and the Steelers (10-5).
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Steelers Christmas Day DFS showdown slate on December 25. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Russell Wilson - QB, $14,100 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 2,129 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 33 rushing attempts, 84 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 12.15%
Normally when there’s a Chiefs showdown slate, I’ll start the slate off with Patrick Mahomes. This time, though, we’ll start with the opposing quarterback, Russell Wilson. Wilson and the Steelers have hit a bit of a skid during this incredibly tough stretch, losing to the Eagles and Ravens in back-to-back weeks. Wilson was good last week, throwing for 217 yards and two touchdowns with just one interception against Baltimore. However, Pittsburgh may need more from “Mr. Unlimited” in this one against Steve Spagnolo’s staunch Kansas City defense.
My model projects Wilson to throw for 224.01 yards and 1.75 touchdowns to just 0.6 interceptions while adding 14.86 yards and 0.1 touchdowns on the ground.
Travis Kelce - TE, $12,300 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 122 targets, 89 receptions, 739 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -0.3%
I’ll flip the field and take a look at another one of my favorites, Travis Kelce. Kelce and the Chiefs' offense haven’t been the superpower we’ve come to know over the last half-decade, but the time to go is now as they’ll be at full strength with Hollywood Brown back in the lineup.
My model projects Kelce to continue to trend upward in this one, catching 6.6 of 9.09 targets for 57.86 yards and 0.44 touchdowns against this Pittsburgh defense that ranks in the bottom-third of the league in all categories against tight ends.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, DeAndre Hopkins
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Isiah Pacheco - RB, $7,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 77 rushing attempts, 292 rushing yards, 16 targets, 12 receptions, 79 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rushing DVOA: -4.59%
I’ll stick with a pair of Chiefs in my flex spots, starting with Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is still trying to find his footing following his return from injury, averaging just 3.65 yards per carry in the four games since. The fantasy output has yet to return, but he’ll get an opportunity to “get right” against the Steelers, who rank 24th in rushing yards allowed to running backs over the last four weeks. That number is likely inflated due to Pittsburgh squaring off with the two best rushing attacks in the league in the last two weeks, but I have a feeling “tired legs” will affect both defenses late in the game, creating a great opportunity for a strong runner like Pacheco to break through.
My model projects Pacheco to run the ball 11.29 times for 51.72 yards, adding 1.78 receptions on 2.17 targets for another 14.49 yards and 0.38 total touchdowns.
DeAndre Hopkins, $7,000 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 76 targets, 54 receptions, 603 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -1.6%
I’ll look at DeAndre Hopkins next. While the Chiefs have Hollywood Brown back into the lineup for this Christmas Day matchup, it’s DeAndre Hopkins who I want to target in the Chiefs receiver room. The Steelers will welcome DeShon Elliott back into the defensive lineup against Kansas City but will be without the impressive second-year corner Joey Porter Jr. for this matchup.
DeAndre Hopkins 😱
Just watching a master of their craft at work. pic.twitter.com/YdvbgbQ1aD
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) December 21, 2024
My model projects Hopkins to lead the Kansas City receiving corps in targets (6.49), receptions (4.45), receiving yards (56.16), and touchdowns (0.39). He has the best matchup of the group and is the Chiefs receiver I’ll have the most exposure to on this slate.
Other Flex Options: Patrick Mahomes, George Pickens, Najee Harris, Hollywood Brown
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Pat Freiermuth - TE, $4,400 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 59 targets, 50 receptions, 508 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 5.1%
I’ll check out a pair of tight ends in the value spots for this one, starting with Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth had a quiet outing against the Ravens on Saturday, catching each of his three targets for just 16 yards. It was the first game he’s had without a touchdown since the TNF showdown against Cleveland the week before Thanksgiving, but I have a feeling he’ll find his way back there in this one.
My model projects Freiermuth to catch 3.99 of 4.99 targets for 41.26 yards and 0.33 touchdowns against the Chiefs.
Noah Gray - TE, $3,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 47 targets, 38 receptions, 430 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 0.3%
I’ll wrap things up with Noah Gray. Gray had a slow afternoon against the Texans in Week 16, catching his only target for 10 yards. It’s the first time Gray had fewer than four targets in any game since Week 10 against Denver, as he averaged five targets per game from Weeks 11-15. While targets may have been diluted with Hollywood Brown back in the fold, I’ll look for the Chiefs to take advantage of the Steelers’ struggles against tight ends, getting Kelce and Gray involved.
Patrick Mahomes finds Noah Gray for the TD
📺: #KCvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/x9kfVcUy1U— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
My model projects Gray to catch 3.14 of 4.05 targets for 31.12 yards and 0.26 touchdowns in this one, making him a great target at his price.
Other Value Options: Chris Boswell, Samaje Perine, Van Jefferson, Chiefs D/ST
Have a good week, everyone!
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