NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Buccaneers vs. Cowboys SNF Showdown (Week 16)

December 22, 2024

Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys SNF Showdown slate Week 16 (Dec. 21, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an NFC showdown tonight, as it’ll be Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) heading to Texas to take on Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys (6-8). The Buccaneers aim to secure their foothold in the NFC South while Dallas looks to keep their playoff hopes alive. Let’s see how this one plays out. 

Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season and get right to it.

I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys SNF DFS showdown slate on December 22. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!

MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Baker Mayfield - QB, $14,400 (DK), $14,500 (FD)

Key Stats

• 2024 Stats: 3,617 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 47 rushing attempts, 266 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns. 
• Projected Pass DVOA: 29.13%

I’ll start with a pair of Buccaneers in the MVP/captain spots. Baker Mayfield has been on a heater over the last two weeks, throwing for 583 yards and seven touchdowns, with three interceptions. He’ll now take on this Dallas defense that, while still having a bit to play for, ranks 19th in defensive DVOA against the pass. 

My model projects Mayfield to throw for 260.41 yards and 1.81 touchdowns to 0.89 interceptions, adding 18.58 rushing yards and 0.35 rushing touchdowns on 3.78 rushing attempts. 

Bucky Irving - RB, $13,500 (DK), $12,500 (FD)

Key Stats

• 2024 Stats: 152 rushing attempts, 851 rushing yards, 40 targets, 38 receptions, 295 receiving yards, six touchdowns. 
• Projected Rush DVOA: 13.88%

I’ll stick with the Tampa Bay backfield here and look at Bucky Irving next. After a slow week 14 against the Raiders, Irving came through in the City of Angels last week, tallying 117 yards on 7.8 yards per carry. While he didn’t find the end zone, I have a feeling he’ll do so tonight against a Dallas defense that typically allows one rushing touchdown to running backs per game. 

Bucky Irving already making his mark with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 😤 pic.twitter.com/HTDuzrKhDL

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 20, 2024

My model projects Irving to run for 65.68 yards on 12.5 carries, adding 2.34 receptions on 2.72 targets for 18.83 yards and 0.7 total touchdowns. 

Other Captains/MVPs: Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Rachaad White

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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

CeeDee Lamb - WR, $10,400 (DK), $15,000 (FD)

Key Stats

• 2024 Stats: 144 targets, 94 receptions, 1,089 receiving yards, six touchdowns. 
• Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -5%

I’ll flip the field and look at my first Cowboy of the night in CeeDee Lamb. It doesn’t take an “elite football analyst” to tell you that the Cowboys' season has fallen short of expectations, hampered even further by the hamstring injury that Dak Prescott sustained in Week 9 against the Falcons.

While Prescott's injury hampered Lamb’s ceiling, he continues to have a solid floor, as he’s seen double-digit targets in four of six games started by Rush, averaging exactly 10 targets per game in that span. 

CeeDee Lamb Milestone watch:

-Currently tied with Drew Pearson for 4th most receptions in team history. He'll pass him on his next catch.

- 32 scrimmage yards to pass Jerry Rice (6,653) for the 4th-most by an NFL WR in the first 5 seasons.

-With 131 receiving yards, Lamb will… pic.twitter.com/bRhzOgXl2R

— Matt Owen (@ProfessorO_NFL) December 20, 2024

My model projects Lamb to catch 7.33 of 10.83 targets for 82.58 yards and 0.47 touchdowns tonight. 

Mike Evans - WR, $10,600 (DK), $15,500 (FD)

Key Stats

• 2024 Stats: 79 targets, 52 receptions, 749 receiving yards, nine touchdowns. 
• Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -13.5%

I’ll flip the field and look at Tampa Bay’s top receiver, Mike Evans. Evans had a relatively slow Week 14 against Las Vegas but followed it up with a massive Week 15 performance against the Chargers, where he caught nine of 11 targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns.

He’ll attempt to build on that performance against Dallas, where he’ll be the clear top target for Mayfield and this Bucs offense again tonight. 

My model projects Evans to catch 6.11 of 9.86 targets for 82.32 yards and 0.6 total touchdowns. 

Other Flex Options: Jalen McMillan, Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Rachaad White

Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Jake Ferguson - TE, $4,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)

Key Stats

• 2024 Stats: 68 targets, 48 receptions, 424 receiving yards. 
• Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 17.4%

I’ll look at a pair of tight ends in the value spot tonight, starting with Jake Ferguson. Ferguson has been a frequent flier in these showdown articles when I write up the Cowboys, and each time, I’m hoping he finds the end zone for the first time in 2024. Unfortunately, Ferguson is still waiting on that first score of the season, which he’ll look to get tonight.

Tampa Bay hasn’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end in the past four weeks but is due for some regression in that department, having ranked 21st and allowing 0.36 touchdowns to the position throughout 2024. 

My model projects Ferguson to catch 4.6 of 6.58 targets for 48.56 yards and 0.31 touchdowns here.

Payne Durham - TE, $200 (DK), $5,000 (FD)

Key Stats

• 2024 Stats: Two targets, two receptions, 34 receiving yards. 
• Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 5.9%

I’ll wrap things up with Payne Durham. It was announced on Friday afternoon that Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton is listed as doubtful for this matchup as he’s dealing with a left knee injury. That leaves Payne Durham and Ko Kieft as the tight-end options for Tampa Bay.

I’m not sure who will get the lion’s share of targets between the two, if either sees targets at all. However, at the minimum price on both sites, it’s worth taking a shot with Durham. 

My model projects Durham to catch 1.79 of 3.11 targets for 21.99 yards and 0.23 touchdowns. 

Other Value Options: Brandon Aubrey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST, Jalen Tolbert, Ko Kieft

Have a good week, everyone!

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