NFL Betting Picks for Week 16 - Best Bets, Expert Odds and Predictions

December 23, 2022

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season. His free picks target the spread.

Oh the ebbs and flows of sports betting. From a nice 5-0 stretch to a brutal 0-5 stretch to bring us back to reality. Week 16 was setup for disaster from the beginning when Zach Wilson was named the starter for the Jets. I was in it for the Jets defense but a last-minute quarterback change is always bad vibes. Now this week we get a majority of the entire country going through a wild winter storm blast that will surely affect some games. So I will be treading lightly due to that.

I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.

• 2022 Record: 19-19, -1 unit
• Spread: 7-6, +0.15 units
• Total/Team Total: 7-11, -4.95 units
• Moneyline: 4-2, +2.5 units
• Props: 0-0
• Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units

Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Week 16 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Sunday 12/24, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 35.5

The Texans are fresh off back-to-back tight games against MUCH better teams, where they were leading for a portion of the game, but couldn't pull of the upset. Davis Mills was back in Week 15 and did what he needed to do to give the Texans a chance, but without Dameon Pierce, this offense lacks an identity. Defensively they're still awful, allowing 23 or more points in each of their last seven games, they'll have their hands full with Derrick Henry this time around.

While the Texans are without Pierce, the Titans are now likely without quarterback Ryan Tannehill (ankle) for the rest of the season. Malik Willis has been beyond less than impressive in his limited time this year, but when Willis is in at QB, Henry increases in carries, yards, and touchdowns, so you can expect more of the same against the Texans. Defensively, Tennessee has the top run defense by DVOA, but they're the polar opposite against the pass, so expect Houston to try and exploit their secondary.

This might be one of the worst games in the NFL this season. Several top players to watch are hurt and there's nothing really exciting about an O/U of 35.5. But we go where the money calls us and to me, that's the under.

Pick: Under 35.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit

Week 16 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Sunday 12/24, 8:15 PM EST | O/U: 39

The Raiders absolutely stole a win against the Patriots in Week 15. You've all seen it, it was on every Twitter feed and sports show. The offense didn't do anything special, but Derek Carr did throw for three touchdowns, yet Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs were held scoreless. They've averaged 5.6 yards per play and 24 points per game over the L3, but averaged just two red zone trips over that span. Defensively, the Raiders are one of the worst, ranked 31st against the pass and 22nd against the run, based on DVOA.

Pittsburgh had a strong win over Carolina in Week 15. Najee Harris was a horse for the first time all year, though he averaged just 3.6 ypc, but he did score. Kenny Pickett will return and start this week, but with the immensely brutal temperatures and winds expected in Pittsburgh Saturday night, I predict the game plan to be ground and pound again. Defensively, the Steelers are much improved this year and will look to shut down Jacobs, but their 8th-ranked run defense is up to the challenge.

As mentioned above, the weather in Pittsburgh on Saturday is expected to be absolutely horrendous conditions. Looking it to be a run-heavy gameplan on both sides, especially Pittsburgh trying to make sure Pickett can stay on the field. A 39-point implied total is low, but I don't think low enough for these conditions. I'll also ride Steelers' moneyline but will make the under my play.

Pick: Under 39 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

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