NFL Futures Betting Picks: Team Win Totals - Top Bets for Vikings, Raiders, Steelers, Falcons

Jackson takes a look at the top NFL betting picks and 2023 future bets for team wins totals. He gives his betting picks and record predictions for Falcons, Raiders, VIkings, and Steelers.

The 2023 NFL offseason is flying by and the season-opener is just about a month away, so it's time to nail down some win-total future bets before the lines start moving. While we haven't seen any team take the field at full strength, we can project which teams are being undervalued or overvalued ahead of the 2023 campaign.

Of course, the betting lines are well thought out and sportsbooks are in the business of making money, but there are some small edges to be found and value to be had when you look hard enough. Whether a team has an easy schedule, is due for regression, or is overvalued thanks to their name brand, there are some mispriced win total figures heading into 2023. This is where we take advantage and cash in.

In last year's edition of this article, we went 4-0 with these future bets. We bet on the Lions (6.5), Eagles (9.5), and Steelers (7.5) to all go over their projected win totals and the Bears (6.5) to go under. Hopefully, we can have just as much success this year. Without further ado, let’s dive into the top NFL futures to attack in 2023.  Win totals are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Atlanta Falcons

OVER 8.5 Wins (-120)

According to SharpFootballAnalysis, the Falcons have the second-easiest strength of schedule for 2023. The Falcons' 2023 opponents went a combined 119-167-3 (0.417) last season, good for the worst combined record among all teams' opponents.

In the division, Atlanta has the aging New Orleans Saints, the young Carolina Panthers led by a rookie quarterback, and the mediocre Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterbacked by Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. At worst, they should post a 4-2 record in inter-division play. They also draw favorable matchups against the Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, and Green Bay Packers.

Atlanta has one of the best offensive line units in the NFL headlined by left tackle Jake Matthews and right guard Chris Lindstrom. Young skill players Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London all have sky-high ceilings, so long as Desmond Ridder develops into at least a mid-level quarterback. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta added Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, Bud Dupree, and Jessie Bates. Given the level of competition, its stop-unit should hold its own in 2023.

Ultimately, Arthur Smith prefers to play a slow, grind-it-out style of football that has proven to have success in the regular season. Atlanta should get to nine wins, but double-digit victories are well within the range of outcomes. Ridder might not be a star, but that's just fine in a conference where the best quarterbacks are probably Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott -- who Atlanta won't square off against this season.

Falcons Record Prediction: 10-7

Las Vegas Raiders

UNDER 6.5 Wins (-130)

Las Vegas went 6-11 last season, arguably downgraded its quarterback, and has the second-toughest strength of schedule in 2023. Is there any reason for optimism for the organization to improve its win total? I think not.

Jimmy Garoppolo has an impressive 40-17 record as a starter, but he'll need to be much more than a game manager to lead his team to victories with Las Vegas. The team squares off the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos twice, but it also draws concerning matchups against the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings. There's a low probability Garoppolo's offense can keep up in those games and the Las Vegas defense that ranked 31st in DVOA last season won't do them any favors.

Josh McDaniels has proven to be a bottom-of-the-barrel head coach, so don't be surprised if he's out of a job and the Raiders are picking in the top five of the 2024 NFL Draft after this season.

Raiders Record Prediction: 5-12

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Minnesota Vikings

OVER 8.5 Wins (-110)

Minnesota won 13 games last season, despite scoring three fewer points (424) overall than the team allowed (427). That indicates the Vikings had plenty of "luck" and unsustainable comebacks, but 8.5 wins feels like a low bar in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers out of the division, Kirk Cousins is arguably the best quarterback in the North and might be a top-three quarterback in the entire NFC. He'll give Minnesota a chance to win every game, and the team's offense should continue to fire on all cylinders with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.

Minnesota's defense ranked 27th in DVOA last year and it'll likely continue to be an issue in 2023. That said, a win-total regression is a possibility and maybe even a certainty. However, the quarterback spot often trumps all, and the Vikings will have that advantage in at least 11 of his 17 games. Offenses win in 2023.

Eight wins should be the Vikings' floor, so I'm comfortable taking over 8.5 here. The sportsbooks seem to be overthinking this one.

Vikings Record Prediction: 10-7

Pittsburgh Steelers

UNDER 8.5 Wins (+120)

Yes, I'm betting on Mike Tomlin to have his first losing season since taking over as head coach in 2007. It might seem blasphemous, but it's plausible. While I picked the Steelers to go over its 7.5-win total last season because of Tomlin, the AFC North looks too good in 2023 and the Steelers are the odd team out.

Last season, the Steelers beat a total of TWO teams who finished the 2023 season with a winning record. One win came against the Bengals in Week 1 when Joe Burrow threw four interceptions and the other was in Week 17 against the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens.

While the team's schedule in 2023 isn't all that scary outside of two games apiece against the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns, Pittsburgh isn't better than any of the middling organizations. Kenny Pickett posted just seven passing touchdowns in 12 games played. The skill group of Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and Allen Robinson is fine, but it doesn't rank highly among AFC teams. It's also the worst skill group in the AFC North on paper.

Tomlin will keep this team out of the NFL's gutter by upsetting a team or two in ugly game scripts, but it's tough to see Pickett outdueling many of the quarterbacks the Steelers will face this season.

Record Prediction: 8-9

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