February 7, 2017

Trevor Crippen recommends Week 16 fantasy basketball waiver wire pickups for NBA guards (PG, SG, PG/SG). Add these potential waiver sleepers to your lineups.

In this post, we are looking into some potential Week 16 waiver wire pickups for guards.

We'll provide options for guards, eligible at PG, SG, or PG/SG who may be available in both standard leagues (less than 50% owned) and deeper leagues (less than 25% owned), and will typically provide a boost in points, assists, threes, and steals.  All position eligibility and ownership rates based on Yahoo! fantasy leagues.

This year, RotoBaller is separating its waiver wire recommendations by position a little differently.  In our three position breakdowns, we'll be separating players into GUARDS, including point guards (PG), shooting guards (SG), and combo guards (PG/SG); WINGS, including small forwards (SF), swing men (SG/SF), and small ball fours (SF/PF); and BIGS, including power forwards (PF), centers (C), and bigs who play both front court spots (PF/C).

Standard League Waiver Wire Guard Adds

Yogi Farrell, PG, DAL (50% owned)

Sometimes crazy stuff happens.  I mentioned Farrell last week as a "Deep League Add," though I tempered expectations about him being a great scorer. It was just one game I was going by at the time. A week later, and Farrell is one of the hottest pickups in the game after a four game stretch where he's averaged 17.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.3 threes, and 1.8 steals on percentages of .444 and .909.  This was all capped by an absurd rookie-record-tying 9 three pointer game against the Trailblazers. At this point, you have to be rushing to the wire to pick him up where still available (you should already have done so in advance of that crazy Portland game -- he's been long gone in competitive 12+ team leagues).  As far as what he's worth going forward, I think we do have to temper expectations.

Farrell is still a rookie fresh out of the D-League. His three point shots aren't going to keep falling like that. He's also going to face some better defense, because it's hard to face a softer schedule as a point guard than he has so far. T.J. McConnell is a decent defender, and Farrell had his worst game against the Sixers, shooting 23%. But in his other three games, Farrell has lined up against Tony Parker, Kyrie Irving, and Damian Lillard, who all have their struggles on defense, especially in the regular season when they're facing a guy they're probably not taking too seriously. I'd expect his FG%, 3PM, and points to come in much lower going forward. Plus, Deron Williams is going to be coming back and likely starting again -- and with the Mavs improbably in the hunt for the 8th seed, they may not buy him out or trade him like many have predicted. Still, this doesn't mean Farrell isn't worth owning -- just that he probably won't be a top 50 guy like he has been the last week. He's still going to be a nice source of point guard stats, and I don't see him losing a rotation spot for the Mavs.

Brandon Jennings, PG, NYK (28% owned)

Jennings was a hot hand in the absence of Derrick Rose for the Knicks, but now that Rose is back it seems maybe he'll keep getting a bit of extra run -- he still managed 28 minutes off the bench against the Lakers on Monday night, playing alongside Rose for stretches, and was one a bright spot for the Knicks in an otherwise shameful loss, hitting 56% of his shots for 16 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 steal. It looks like he could keep things up as a 12-team source of assists and steals, so that's good.

The bad news will come when his terrible shooting invariably returns. He's had a couple of good shooting games in a row -- against the Cavs and Lakers, both teams that struggle mightily defending guards -- but he's strongly established over his career that he's going to be well below average in both FG% and FT%. His game against the Nets may be the most Brandon Jennings game ever -- 10 assists and 5 steals is awesome, but it came with 6 points on a horrific 1 of 11 from the field and 4 of 6 from the line. He makes a very nice punt play, but his shooting will always hamper his overall value, even when he does get minutes. And never forget, the two factors that drive his value -- whether his shot is falling and whether he's getting minutes -- are not independent. If he goes cold, suddenly maybe Jeff Hornacek decides to play around with Ron Baker in the lineup again.

Standard League Honorable Mentions: Ty Lawson, PG, SAC (15% owned); Michael Carter-Williams, PG, CHI (19% owned); Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG, MIL (34% owned)

Deep League Waiver Wire Guard Adds

E'Twaun Moore, PG/SG, NOP (5% owned)

Tyreke Evans hasn't been playing too well lately, and has now gotten himself a sprained ankle. Moore had already been playing quite well -- he's shooting .491 over the last 14 days, with well over over a steal and a trey per game, and a nifty 2.1 assists to 0.4 turnover ratio. With a very decent FG% and nice numbers in threes and steals, Moore makes a great add in deep leagues and even a decent role player for some standard league punt builds -- namely as a good FG%, low turnover, three-and-D starter at PG for teams punting assists.

Deep League Honorable Mentions: Ben McLemore, SG, SAC (1% owned)