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Week 4 has come and gone and COVID remains prevalent in the NFL heading to Week 5. With bye weeks upon us, fantasy managers also have to contend with positive cases for the Titans, Patriots, Raiders, and Chiefs. All of us understood these possibilities heading into the season, but seeing the NFL move games is still an odd sight.
Looking to Week 5, the primary Monday Night Football matchup comes in the form of the Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints. The Chargers have declared rookie first-round pick Justin Herbert their starting quarterback after three strong performances to open his career. The Chargers come into this game somewhat banged up on offense thanks to an injury to Austin Ekeler in Week 4 and Mike Williams in Week 3.
Meanwhile, the Saints are hoping to get Michael Thomas and Jared Cook back for this game after both players missed Week 4. It could be irrelevant though given the fact that Alvin Kamara looks as explosive as ever and is dominating teams both on the ground and in the air. With Drew Brees rounding into form after a quarter of the season, this game could be more entertaining than it looked at the start of the year.
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Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints
- Game time: Monday 10/12 @ 8:15 EST
- Game line: New Orleans -7
- Over/Under: 50.5
Must-Starts
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
After a shaky opening to the season, Drew Brees seems to have righted the ship a bit in recent weeks. Despite not having access to Michael Thomas in the passing game, Brees has thrown for 534 yards and five touchdowns (with one interception) the past two weeks against the Packers and Lions. If Thomas can play (more on him a bit later), it will at the very least force coverage to account for him and open up his other weapons. The Chargers have struggled in the passing game on defense this season without Derwin James, allowing 22.7 points per week to opposing quarterbacks. They are fresh off Tom Brady throwing for five touchdowns without Chris Godwin and with a hobbled Mike Evans.
UPDATE: Michael Thomas has officially been ruled out for Week 5.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert continues to be the rookie surprise at the quarterback position. Herbert wasn’t able to surpass 300 passing yards for the third time in three starts, but he did complete a career-high 80% of his passes and three touchdowns against a relatively strong Tampa Bay defense in Week 4. The Chargers may be 0-3 in Herbert’s three starts, but he has played well enough to keep them within a touchdown against the Chiefs, Panthers, and Buccaneers, which isn’t too bad. Herbert will likely have to throw it again in Week 5 against the Saints, a secondary that has allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season and 22.2 points to quarterbacks per week.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Alvin Kamara failed to meet his lofty expectations in 2020 in what should have been a smash spot against the Lions. Kamara was still productive, carrying the ball 19 times for 83 yards and a touchdown while adding three receptions and 36 yards through the air, but he wasn’t needed once the Saints overcame a 14-point deficit to take a commanding lead against the Lions. It didn’t help that Latavius Murray was able to steal two scores from him in the red zone. Kamara has been the RB1 in fantasy this season, a trend that should continue against the Chargers. Los Angeles has done very well against the run this year (315 yards) but has struggled against pass-catching backs (154 yards and two scores), setting up for a great Kamara game once again.
Latavius Murray (RB, NO)
If you drafted Latavius Murray in your fantasy draft, then you have been happy with the results considering where you got him (typically right before or around the double-digit rounds). Murray has had at least 12 carries in three games, giving him a consistent enough workload to be a bye week fill-in or flex play. The only game where Murray failed to log a strong workload was a loss to the Raiders where the Saints were caught playing catch up the whole night. He has also been targeted at least once in every game, which adds to his value. Murray isn’t the strongest play, but in a week where numerous options are on bye or facing a COVID cancellation, you could do worse than a double-digit carry back.
Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)
With Austin Ekeler out of the picture, Joshua Kelley would seem to be the logical player to see an increase in work. For one, he has already been utilized in a heavy usage role, totaling 35 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown the first two weeks of the season. Kelley has also seen an uptick in the passing game lately (despite going down to just 17 carries since Week 2), totaling seven catches (on seven targets) for 88 yards since Week 2. Kelley will likely split time with Justin Jackson, the RB2 in Los Angeles at the beginning of last season, but should have a solid game with double-digit touches. This week’s matchup isn’t great (New Orleans is only allowing 19 points per game to running backs), but Kelley should have the workload to justify a spot as your RB2.
Tre'Quan Smith (WR, NO)
After the Michael Thomas injury, Tre'Quan Smith has seen his role and production grow in the New Orleans Saints’ offense. Smith has been targeted 17 times since Week 1, catching 13 passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns. This culminated in a perfect week against the Lions where Smith caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and two scores. Michael Thomas may be able to return on Monday night, so time will tell on how concrete Smith’s role will be if that happens. However, Thomas will likely need time to shake off his high ankle sprain, making Smith a startable player given bye weeks and potential COVID cancellations.
UPDATE: Michael Thomas has officially been ruled out for Week 5.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
The emergence of Justin Herbert as a legitimate passer has provided a stable weekly floor for Keenan Allen. Since Week 1, Allen has been targeted 40 times, catching 28 passes for 290 yards and a touchdown against some solid competition. He has always been a fringe WR1, and the Chargers’ young quarterback hasn’t done anything to end that trend. Marshon Lattimore will be Allen’s stiffest competition so far this season, but given his double-digit target floor, he must be in your lineup no matter what.
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
Hunter Henry finally had his first down week against a tough linebacking and safety corps in Tampa Bay. After seeing at least seven targets and catching five passes the first three weeks, Henry only caught two of four targets for 39 yards in Week 4. Henry has been steady and reliable this season, serving as the safety blanket for Justin Herbert. He should have no problem getting back on track against a Saints Defense that has allowed 16.3 points per week to tight ends (second-worst in the NFL). The New Orleans secondary is allowing 10.3 yards per reception and five touchdowns to tight ends through four games this season.
Consider Sitting
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, NO)
After an initial disappointment as the Saints’ WR1 in the wake of the Michael Thomas injury, Sanders has been utilized far better in the past two weeks. Sanders was targeted nine times against the Lions in Week 4, catching six passes for 93 yards in an impressive come from behind victory against Detroit. These past three weeks probably were important for Sanders and quarterback Drew Brees to establish some rapport given the condensed offseason program they both faced. Even with Thomas potentially returning, the Chargers have two of the best perimeter cornerbacks in the league with Casey Hayward and Desmond King. Sanders will be up for a challenge, but with all the COVID-related madness, he may be a worthy pivot if you have a player with a safer matchup.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
This one is pretty simple: Mike Williams hasn’t played since early in Week 3 thanks to a hamstring and is registered as a "did not play" against the Buccaneers. Despite the week of rest, Mike Williams missed practice through Thursday of Week 5 as well. Even if Williams can practice over the weekend, we have seen players struggle to recover from hamstring strains only to reinjure them when going full speed again. Give Williams a week to prove he is healthy before re-inserting him into your starting lineups.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
Like Michael Thomas, Jared Cook has also been practicing on a limited basis this week. With an extra day to practice, he should have the ability to get close to ready after having Week 4 off against the Lions. Cook has had a relatively modest role for the Saints this year, catching nine of 15 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown in three games. Given the poor state of fantasy tight ends, that is a downright robust line that probably got him close to a TE1 through three weeks. Waiting until Monday to play Cook is a dangerous game, especially against a Chargers Defense that has allowed only 10.3 points to tight ends every week this year.
Potential Sleepers
Justin Jackson (RB, LAC)
Justin Jackson saw a spike in his role after the injury to Austin Ekeler in Week 4 (although to be fair, it isn’t hard to see a workload spike when your previous two weeks were zero percent of the offensive snaps). Jackson carried the ball six times for nine yards and added two catches for 12 yards in the loss to the Buccaneers. However, he was on the field for 40% of the time, which suggests he could see an uptick in his work on the field. Jackson played well last season during the Melvin Gordon holdout, and will likely see 40% of the backfield’s touches with Ekeler injured. If you need a desperation flex play, he should be serviceable.
Jalen Guyton (WR, LAC)
Jalen Guyton has been a serviceable player during Mike Williams’ absence thanks to a hamstring injury. Guyton has been targeted seven times, catching five passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns. He has filled in the role of a downfield threat well and should continue to do so with Williams on the mend. Guyton has a high-risk, high-reward feel to him this week with Keenan Allen likely to draw the attention of Marshon Lattimore and the injury to Austin Ekeler.
Adam Trautman (TE, NO)
To be clear, the only way Adam Trautman should find his way into your lineup is if Jared Cook doesn’t play AND you missed your waiver period the last week due to a catastrophic fantasy football blunder. Trautman registered no stats last week and played only 27% of the Saints' snaps in Week 4 despite the absence of Jared Cook. Trautman comes from the University of Dayton (like a certain someone writing this article) and still likely needs time to develop. He is an absolute desperation play but could find himself with a touchdown at any time given the injuries to the Saints.
Tough Call
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
For the second straight week, Michael Thomas has been limited in practice trying to test out his ankle. Last week, it turned him into a late scratch against the Lions and only time will tell what the result of this week’s work will be. Ultimately, I would be wary of Thomas heading into this Monday night matchup. High ankle sprains notoriously take a lot of time to heal and we have seen numerous players recently (Alvin Kamara and Saquon in 2019) struggle once they return. A hobbled Thomas being hounded by Casey Hayward on defense is a potential recipe for disaster. It is very difficult to pivot off the player you likely took in the mid-to-late first round of your fantasy draft, but I am extremely skeptical of Thomas’ ability to produce in a tough matchup on Monday night.
UPDATE: Michael Thomas has officially been ruled out for Week 5.
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