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Today's Underdog MLB DFS prop picks for Friday, July 28, 2023 by Dawn Tepper. Use her MLB over/under props recommendations to win money on Underdog.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy MLB DFS prop picks for Friday, July 28, 2023. Welcome back to our DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the MLB DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks – whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people – you're just playing against the projections.
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MLB DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
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Reese Olson, 4.5 Strikeouts (LOWER)
Olson has 4.5 strikeouts per game pitched this season. He has 3.4 strikeouts per game in the last 30 days. The NL East Miami Marlins have a 21% K rate versus righties this season, and their strikeouts per game have come down from just over eight per game to just over seven per game. Usually, I would automatically think Olson would go higher, but Miami's wRC+ for the last 30 days is up to 99 from 76 for the season, and they are at 93 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers. I'll take the Under for Olson versus Miami tonight.
Shane McClanahan, 5.5 Batter Strikeouts (LOWER)
McClanahan is striking out 5.89 batters per game pitched this season. Houston has a 21.30% K rate for the season and just 18.13% versus left-handed pitchers. Versus lefties, they are striking out just 2.65 times per game for the season and have a 110 wRC+. In two games versus Houston in 2022, McLanahan is 0-2 with a 7.0 ERA and five total strikeouts. I'll take Houston to strike out less than 5.5 times at home versus Tampa Bay.
Ryan McMahon, 0.5 Singles (LOWER)
Colorado has a 28.9 K rate for the season and 26.15% versus left-handed pitchers. They have a 77 wRC+ for the last 30 days, and for the season versus lefties, they have a 65 wRC+. McMahon has 0.95 hits per game this season, and versus lefties, McMahon is slashing just .215/.270/.364 with 0.4 hits per game. Colorado is trending down, and I don't expect them to start their turnaround at home versus Sears and Oakland tonight.
Underdog Fantasy - UNDER
Brady Singer, 5.0 Strikeouts (HIGHER)
Right-hander Singer is striking out 4.5 batters per game this season. He has an 18% K rate for the season, but the Minnesota Twins have a 30% strikeout rate, and versus right-handed pitchers, that percentage is just under that at 27%. Add 10.33 strikeouts per game for the Twins, and Singer should have no problem going over 5.0 strikeouts tonight.
Kevin Gausman, 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (HIGHER)
Gausman faces an Angels team with a 121 wRC+ for the season, 136 for the last 30 days. Their 26.6% strikeout rate would be concerning if it didn't go down to 23.5% versus right-handed pitchers this season. Los Angeles' ISO is .250 for the season, which is elite. Gausman's 32.9% K rate won't be enough to keep Shohei Ohtani and the Angels from scoring plenty of runs tonight in Toronto.
Josh Lowe, 7.5 Fantasy Points (HIGHER)
Right-fielder Lowe and the Rays are facing right-hander Cristian Javier in Houston tonight. The Rays have a 88 wRC+ for the season, but versus righties, the number jumps up to 120. Javier has a 5.04 xFIP for the season and a 9.70 ERA in his last five games. Versus right-handed pitchers this season, Lowe is slashing .281/.320/.496 with 12 home runs and 49 RBI. Lowe will have no problem going over 7.5 fantasy points tonight on the road.
Underdog Fantasy - Higher
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