MLB Bullpen Report: Bullpens to Target or Avoid in Week 16 (2022)

Dan Palyo breaks down which bullpens are struggling and thriving this season and recently heading into Week 16 and recommends which bullpens to target or avoid in fantasy baseball, DFS, and sportsbetting.

The dog days of summer are upon us! The All-Star Break is officially a thing of the past, and we are now only a week away from the trade deadline and the final stretch run of the 2022 baseball season.

Earlier this year, I started tweeting out some charts that I had created with team bullpen statistics and got such a solid reception from the public, that I thought "this could be an article!" I think there is a practical application of this data for fantasy baseball players, DFS grinders, and daily MLB bettors.

I debuted this piece before the break but didn't have it last week since we had a short week of games. Without any further ado, I present to you the official "Thunder Dan" Bullpen Report for Week 16 of the 2022 MLB season!

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The Big Picture

Here's the latest set of bullpen data. I have my five favorite stats for bullpens and both the season-long and last-30-day numbers for each.

Remember the color-coding is from the opposing team's perspective so green means go (for hitters) and represents a bad metric for the bullpen. Red represents a good bullpen that is a poor matchup for opposing hitters.

I'm using xFIP as my ERA indicator here, but I think SIERA is pretty good, too, if you prefer it. Either way, I want a stat that we can use as an overall indicator of the bullpen's performance. WHIP does something similar and points us towards which bullpens are allowing the most baserunners.

If you're hunting homers, then HR/9 is better than total home runs allowed since these bullpens have all seen very amounts of action in terms of innings pitched.

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The GOOD

1. New York Yankees
2. Houston Astros
3. L.A. Dodgers
4. New York Mets
5. Atlanta Braves
6. Baltimore Orioles
7. Seattle Mariners

Which of these things is not like the other? Yep, the Baltimore Orioles are the only non-playoff team on this list (if the season ended today). I think a lot of folks still don't realize how good they've been, and it's not just Jorge Lopez.

We are so programmed to pick on Baltimore starters in DFS and used to Camden Yards being an elite hitting environment (it's not anymore) but this bullpen has been fantastic, especially over the last month.

The BAD

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Washington Nationals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Los Angeles Angels
7. Colorado Rockies

It's no surprise that we have some of the best teams in baseball with great bullpens and some of the worst teams with the bad ones. None of these teams are above .500 and the only real surprise (based on preseason expectations) would be the Angels, who have taken a massive nosedive this year.

Recently, we've seen the Nats bullpen move up the list as this team has reached new levels of incompetence (now sporting a -164 run differential, which is 60 runs worse than any other NL team).

The Pirates pen has tanked hard, too, after being somewhat respectable earlier in the year. The Rockies' pen has improved lately and they almost didn't make the bad list this time around.

The Last 14 Days

I had been mainly looking at full-season and a last-30 day rolling sample up until now. I wanted to zoom in a little closer and consider each bullpen's performance over the last two weeks, too.

The season-long numbers don't move much one way or the other even with a good or bad week and a recent 30-day sample isn't likely to capture when a bullpen is really starting to trend up or down compared to their baseline performance.

Remember that this 14-day sample includes the 4-day All-Star break for most teams, so our sample size is a little smaller than usual.

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Boston's bullpen leads the way here (in a bad way) with an xFIP over 5. That number has a lot to do with the 28 runs they allowed to Toronto over the weekend. Texas has had to use their relievers the most, as their pen racked up 47 innings in 11 games. Milwaukee and Minnesota lead the way in home runs allowed, with Boston not far behind.

Looking Ahead

This is the pay-off for all my season-long fantasy baseball peeps (DFS guys can benefit by looking ahead here, too).  I pulled the schedule for every MLB team and ranked their match-ups for the upcoming week.

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Once again, green means GO for hitters and lower ranks are better. Each bullpen was ranked from 1-30 with a ranking of 1 representing the best possible match-up for opposing hitters.

1. Fatigue rank - this is simply calculated using the total amount of innings thrown by a bullpen over the most recent 14-day sample.
2. Last 30 Day xFIP - every team ranked from 1-30 based on their xFIP over the last month.
3. Overall xFIP - every team ranked from 1-30 based on their xFIP for the entire season.

Some takeaways here...

1. While the Angels' offense has been abysmal for much of the season, they do have a great combo of match-ups this week with Texas and Kansas City. They also finally scored some runs on Sunday, putting up a 9-spot on the Braves. Give the Halos' hitters a nice bump this week.
2. The Guardians are the other team that could really benefit here. They get the overworked Boston pen and a Tampa team that has been middling at best.
3. Baltimore bats interest me as they also get Tampa and the league-worst Reds (in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, too).
4. The Rockies play the Brewers today but then head home to face the White Sox and Dodgers. Being in Coors Field never hurts, but they have one of the toughest match-up combos there facing those pens.
5. Washington and Tampa also have really tough draws, and those offenses have been slumping badly. If you're considering a marginal player on those teams, think twice.

Well, that's all I think I want to say about bullpens today. If you have any feedback or suggestions, I'd love to hear them and I hope this information can help you in some way, regardless of what format of gambling on baseball suits you!

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