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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 5/11/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Welcome to another day and week of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
Capped off last week with a beautiful 2-0 Friday! Boston on the runline has been very fruitful this season. Meanwhile, Seattle squeaked out a late-inning win against the Rangers. Both plays were plus-money, so that put a nice dent in the negative unit count I was holding down. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Tuesday, May 11. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 3-4 (-1.2u)
- O/U Record: 8-7-2 (+.28u)
- Runline Record: 4-4 (+0.45u)
- First 5 Record: 5-4-3 (-.31u)
- Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 22-23-6 (-2.49u)
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | WSH -120 PHI +114
Philadelphia: Chase Anderson; Washington: Erick Fedde
Through six starts, Anderson hasn’t worked past five complete innings, and he’s struggling with control which obviously presents problems. The righty has allowed three or deserts runs in all but one start so far, but a 21/14 K/BB put him on pace for career worst numbers. Offensively, the Phils have one of the worst lineups when facing a RHP, posting a 27 K%, a .294 wOBA, and an 85 wRC+.
Fedde has two blowup outings, and both of them came at home, but sandwiched in there is five innings of four-hit, one-run ball with nine strikeouts. He has some worrisome metrics, but he’s on pace for a career best K% and his xERA is almost a full point lower than his 5.27 ERA. The Nats post almost identical struggles against RHP, but strike out slightly less than their opponents. Juan Soto should be back full-time Tuesday, so that naturally is a huge boost to this lineup, but outside of him and Trea Turner, pitchers don’t have much to be worried about.
Both pitchers would usually look to be easy targets, but these offenses aren’t in a good place when facing a RHP. Anderson’s controls issues could lead to extended innings, but so far he’s done a decent job of limiting those. Fedde seems set for some positive regression, so I’m going to bank in them having solid starts and we’ll keep the bullpens out of site.
Pick: First 5 Under 4.5 (+104, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 7.5 | CWS -118 MIN +105
Minnesota: Kenta Maeda; Chicago: Dylan Cease
Maeda has been polar opposite of his 2020 self, getting hit often and hard, while struggling to put guys away. His last time out showed signs of promise, going five scoreless innings, allowing just two knocks with eight strikeouts. The two precious outings, he’d given up 11 earned runs over 8.2 IP. One number I’m worried about is the .393 xwOBACON. The Twins’ lineups is missing two catalysts in Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff, but the lineup has been strong against RHP, especially on the road. They boast a .348 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 126 wRC+, all tied for the best marks in MLB.
Cease has looked like the hyped up prospect we all expected over his last two outings. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last two starts (13 IP), scattering just four hits with a 20/3 K/BB. It’s worth noting that was against the Tigers and Reds, but still impressive marks, nonetheless. The White Sox lineup has been equally as hot, scoring nine runs three times in their L5 games, including a three game sweep of Kansas City, who they outscored 22-4. Their power output hasn’t flourished yet, but against RHP at home, they hold a .320 wOBA with a wRC+, so they’re getting things done at the plate.
Cease has looked fantastic while Maeda has struggled. However, I’m targeting the offenses here. Sure, Minnesota is missing two big bats, but the rest of the offense isn’t devoid of talent, and Chicago has been pouring it on of late. Add in the bullpens that have struggled so far, and I’ll lean Chicago on the ML but my play here is the over.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-113, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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