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We had the expected fireworks in the Boston/Toronto game. Meanwhile Cincinnati got out to an early lead, but they blew it just as quickly and couldn't score again. Luis Castillo pitched pretty well, but he couldn't get the run support needed, so he drops to 0-4. One of those days where it was essentially one-pitch-away from a positive day.
- Tuesday, Aug. 25: 1-1 (-.2 units)
- 2020 Season Total: 15-18-2 (-4.46 units)
I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it.
Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Wednesday, August 26th. My analysis will be a little shorter than normal today due to time constraints. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!
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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-112)
O/U: 9
PHI: Aaron Nola, WSH: Patrick Corbin
Nola is coming off a dud against the Braves, but he was clicking on all cylinders in the three starts prior. He's giving up a lot of hard contact (44%) this season but his stuff is as filthy as ever, with a 36 K% and 35 Whiff%. The Phils' lineup has been a bit down, but they scored eight on Tuesday, getting to the Nationals bullpen. However, their matchup against a LHP like Corbin isn't a good one. Philly is slashing just .217/.342/.370 versus southpaws on the road in August, adding a .152 ISO and 99 wRC+ to their repertoire, which is a mild cause for concern.
Washington looks to Corbin to even out the series. The 31-year-old has shown some good things but also had his weaknesses as well, allowing a homer in four of his five starts. His 31/6 K/BB is certainly efficient but his .299 xBA and .464 xSLG hint that there's some issues here. This Nats offense has some trouble at home, averaging just 3.5 rpg and they backed that up by scoring just three in Tuesday's loss. Against RHP at home this month, they're slashing .236/.324/.375 with an 86 wRC+.
Both of these arms have immense potential, with Nola giving Philly a slight advantage. However, both lineups have been inconsistent in their spots this series, so I'm looking for the starting pitching to take precedent here, as both bullpens were taxed in game one.
Pick: First 5 Under 4.5 (-106, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-122)
O/U: 9.5
COL: Jon Gray, ARZ: Robbie Ray
Both of these pitchers have been flat out bad this year, but Ray will have an advantage because of how much the Rockies struggle against LHP on the road. As a team, they’re carrying a .546 OPS with a .103 ISO and a 48 wRC+ on the road against southpaws in August. While the DBacks lineup won’t win them any pennants, they have been succeeded against righties at home this month, holding an .842 OPS with a .203 ISO.
While Ray has struggled with control (25 BB in 27 IP) and keeping the ball in the yard (nine HR allowed), this Rockies offense is totally different on the road. I like the DBacks to be able to pressure Gray early and give Ray the support he needs.
Pick: Arizona -1 (+112, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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