MLB Betting Picks (8/21/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

August 21, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/21/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

I wasn’t able to get anything out on Thursday and I’m ok with it because I didn’t really like any of the games anyway. So we’ll start the weekend off with a pair of games that I think I found a nice edge on.

• Wednesday, Aug 19th: 1-1 (-.17 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 12-17-2 (-5.96 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Friday, August 21st. My analysis will be a little shorter than normal today due to time constraints. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-175)

O/U: 8.5

TOR: Matt Shoemaker, TBR: Ryan Yarbrough

Against LHP in the month of August, the Blue Jays have a .330 BABIP with a .204 ISO against LHP. Meanwhile, the Rays have a .361 BABIP with a .254 ISO against RHP in the same stretch. The Rays dropped 10 on the Yankees Thursday, while the Blue Jays put up a nine-spot in game two against the Phillies. Yarbrough was off to a strong start but the last the outings haven't been as good, allowing nine runs and three homers with a 12/3 K/BB over those 12.1 innings.  Shoemaker, on the other hand, must have neck soreness watching the six homers he's allowed in 20.2 IP go over the fence. The 33-year-old has a 13/1 K/BB over his last two starts, but his metrics speak otherwise.

These teams are combining for over 11 rpg over their L3, and while the Blue Jays might be missing Bo Bichette, it seems that the rest of the lineup is ready to pick up his slack. Neither of these pitchers warrant a total this low and when you take into account their numbers this month, I like some runs to be scored to open this series.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-120, Fanduel ) 1 Unit

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-112)

O/U: 8.5

PHI: Aaron Nola, ATL: Max Fried

Similar to Toronto/Tampa Bay, these teams have been on fire, scoring over 12 combined rpg over their L3 before Thursday's games. The Phillies put up two and eight runs, respectively, in their doubleheader Thursday, but they've been hitting southpaws quite well in August. With a team BABIP of .320 and an ISO of .212, they 136 wRC+ is no surprise. On the other side, Atlanta hasn't seemed to miss Ronald Acuna Jr. over the last few games, averaging over five rpg and carrying a .369 BABIP and a .187 ISO in August.

Nola has been pretty incredible with a 37/4 K/BB and just six runs allowed over 26.1 innings, but this isn't just some pushover Braves lineup because Acuna is out. Fried has been carrying the Atlanta rotation ever since Mike Soroka went down. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA over 29 innings, but he's yet to surrender a long ball, and with the upside of the Phillies lineup, it's just a matter of time. Both of these arms are good, but the lineups are just as good, they'll put pressure on both sides pitching staffs.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit

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