MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 5/20/26)

May 20, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 5/20/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

I'm back with another full-slate breakdown of Wednesday's MLB games, May 20. As usual, I have a blend of game bets and player props, with my specialty being a focus on strikeout props for starting pitchers!

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-133)

It's Yankees ace Cam Schlittler against Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage in this one, and we finally get a matchup between two very good pitchers that doesn't carry heavy juice.

That's likely because of the dangerous hitters that both teams send to the plate in the first inning, but both Schlittler and Yesavage have a solid track record this year in the first frame, so I am trusting that they can shut it down early and help us cash this wager.

MLB Over/Under Bets

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals UNDER 8.5 Total Runs (-132)

We have some cooler weather in K.C. today as it's only going to be about 60 degrees at game time. That favors the pitchers, both of whom have been pretty solid recently. Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Royals and has been super solid all year, allowing more than three earned runs in only two of his nine starts.

The Red Sox counter with lefty Connelly Early, who has been blown up just once (five earned runs) across his nine starts. Neither offense is doing much right now, either, as the Red Sox have scored more than three runs just once (it was yesterday) in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, K.C. has been held to just two runs or fewer in four straight.

MLB Team Totals

Tampa Bay Rays OVER 4.5 total runs (+113)

Shane Baz is on the mound for the Orioles and facing off against his old team on the road. However, it has not gone all that well for Baz this year, as he enters this matchup with an ERA over 5.00 and a 1.50 WHIP.

Baz has allowed five earned runs in two of his last three starts and will have his hands full with this Tampa Bay offense that has scored five runs or more in six of its last eight.

It's not a hitters' park per se, but it's going to be warm and humid today for this game, creating some more favorable hitting conditions. I like the Rays to keep the offense rolling against Baz and what has been a pretty beatable Baltimore bullpen this year.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get six months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET

Sean Burke UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-158)

The first few picks here carry some juice, so feel free to parlay them, especially if the odds get out of control during the day. Burke is a guy with only a 8% SwStr%, and he got hit hard by the Mariners only a few starts ago, allowing six runs on six hits.

He has six or more strikeouts in just two of nine starts this season.

Tanner Bibee OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-162)

I like Bibee today quite a bit. His 12% SwStr% is a strong leading indicator that he probably is closer to a 24-25% K% pitcher than a 20% guy, and he's facing a team that he dominated last year in Detroit. Bibee had five or more strikeouts in all four meetings with the Tigers in 2025, including two eight-strikeout performances.

Bibee has better splits against lefties, too, and should face six of them in the lineup today.

Chris Sale OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+105)

I mean, if Martin Perez can strike out 10 Marlins, then Sale can surely get eight, right? It's never that simple, but Sale has certainly been trending up with eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts.

Meanwhile, the Marlins have whiffed 10, 10, and nine times against left-handed starters in May. It's a good spot for Sale, and I'm backing him here, especially with the plus-money odds.

Kyle Harrison OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Another lefty who has been rolling lately is Milwaukee's Kyle Harrison. He's enjoying a breakout campaign this year and enters this game with an impressive 30% K% and 14.2% SwStr%.

The Cubs always present a challenge, but the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, and Harrison's dominance of righties (32% K%) bodes well as he should see six or even seven of them in Chicago's lineup tonight.

Shohei Ohtani OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-139)

At this point, we just have to keep riding the hot start of Ohtani on the mound. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball to start the season, and we are still able to get him at 6.5 (with a little juice) against a Padres team that has been striking out a lot more this year than in previous seasons.

If this moves to 7.5, I think it's still worth a sprinkle at plus money since Ohtani could still easily get eight strikeouts in this spot tonight.

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