First base has generally been where the league’s best hitters are found. These are advanced hitters like Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and Paul Goldschmidt who can hit for power, hit for average and take their share of free passes. They are middle of the order power hitters with 40-home run capabilities like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder (maybe not this season with Prince) who are going to lead your dynasty team in home runs. But if you are waiting for the next Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera to reach the big leagues, you are probably going to have to wait for a long time.

There is not a tremendous amount of first base depth in the minor leagues and most of them are going to be one-way players. There are guys who can hit for power, but strike out too much and bat below .260. There are guys who can hit for a solid average, but can’t hit for any power. For me, I personally put a priority on power hitting at first base just like with third base because you can find guys who can hit for average at the middle infield positions and in the outfield and power has become much rarer of a thing to find in those positions.

A quick note on how these articles are formatted. They are going to be sorted by who I think is the best option for dynasty owners based on a combination of estimated time of arrival and potential upside. I will include their stats from their current level, their age, their ETA and lastly a talent grade. The talent grade will be an all-encompassing grade designed to inform dynasty owners of how big of a fantasy impact a player will realistically have. It will take into account how long it takes to reach the big leagues and will be on a scale of 1-10.

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First Base Dynasty Rankings

1. Josh Bell (PIT, AAA)
Stats: 271 PA, .316/.406/.517, 9 HR, 1 SB, 17.0% K rate, 11.8% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: 2016

It has been a long time since the Pirates had a consistent answer to Abbott and Costello's question, “who’s at first?”. The answer to that question in the past might’ve been Gaby Sanchez, Pedro Alvarez or Sean Rodriguez. Now John Jaso and David Freese temporarily hold down the cold corner. Soon, a more permanent answer will be promoted to the big leagues. His name is Josh Bell.

The switch-hitting first baseman has always excited scouts because of his raw talent, but he has really started to turn the raw ability into production. There had always been an underlying belief that Bell had power, at least more power than the seven home runs he hit in 131 games last season would have you believe. Thankfully for fantasy owners, he has finally started to show it. Already on the season, Bell has hit two more home runs than all of last season in 68 fewer games. He has always been able to hit for a high average, due in large part to his advanced plate discipline and ability to spray the ball around to all fields.

Dynasty owners may not be super excited about the outfielder-turned-first baseman, but Bell should at least provide solid production every day in the big leagues. He is not a great power hitter like most first baseman, but he is a solid bet to bat .290+ every season with 15+ home runs all while batting near the top of the order for Pittsburgh. He also seems very likely to grow into more power as he continues to mature.

Talent grade: 6.5

2. A.J. Reed (HOU, AAA)
Stats: 217 PA, .239/.336/.463, 8 HR, 0 SB, 23.0% K rate, 12.9% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: Any week now

Reed was a relative unknown before his remarkable 2015 campaign. And even then there were doubters because at first he only mashed against High-A. Then around mid-season, he was promoted to Double-A where he seemed to silence all the doubters as he slashed .332/.405/.571 with 11 home runs and a 0.55 BB/K ratio in 237 PA. So the Astros sent him to Triple-A to begin this season. And though he has still flashed the very promising power and solid plate discipline, Reed has been unable to replicate the same average.

His slow start to Triple-A shouldn’t concern dynasty owners too much as there is still a lot to like about Reed. He has more power than any other first baseman on this list and is going to have the biggest impact the soonest as he is probably only weeks if not days away from the big leagues. Scouts praise his advanced plate discipline for a power hitter and believe that it will help him eventually hit for a better average. He may hit around .250 for a little bit in the majors, but after he acclimates to the pitching, many believe he should hit closer to .280.

If he is capable of repeating his successes in the lower Minor Leagues, Reed will be the best first baseman on this list by far. While I believe that he certainly is capable of eventually reaching that upside, I think that he will go through a couple of seasons of .240 batting average with only 20 or so home runs. Dynasty owners will not have to wait too long for him to reach the big leagues as he is probably days if not weeks away from reaching the majors, but they will have to wait a little bit for him to truly reach his elite upside.

Talent grade: 6.5

3. Greg Bird (1B, NYY, 60-day DL)
Stats: (from 2015 MLB) 178 PA, .261/.343/.529, 11 HR, 0 SB, 29.8% K rate, 10.7% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: 2017

He may not technically qualify as a rookie, but Bird is only 27 at-bats over the rookie cut-off and is not currently on the big league roster so for the sake of this article, he will count as a prospect. And for dynasty owners, there is a lot to like in the bat of this 23-year-old first baseman.

For starters, scouts have always praised his advanced plate discipline at the dish. He did strike out nearly 30% of the time in his 178 MLB plate appearances, but before that he had typically only struck out around 20%, often lower than that. He also has consistently walked around 10-15% of the time, a very promising rate.

Most first baseman hit for some power too and luckily, Bird offers plenty of that to dynasty owners. In his limited time at the big league level, he mashed 11 home runs in a season in which he had already collected 12 split between Double-A and Triple-A before his promotion. He also hit 20 home runs in both 2013 and 2014, proving that his power surge is no fluke.

Bird would be number one on this list if it weren’t for the fact that his injury, a torn labrum, is quite severe and can be quite debilitating. There have been many studies showing that it can be one of the worst injuries to recover from, so there is the risk that he does not return to full form. Based on his upside, Bird is still worth taking a risk on in most dynasty leagues.

Talent grade: 6

4. Casey Gillaspie (TB, AA)
Stats: 262 PA, .289/.408/.493, 9 HR, 3 SB, 20.2% K rate, 17.2% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: 2017

The future of first base for the Tampa Bay Rays, Gillaspie has done nothing but hit in his minor league career. Last season, Gillaspie spent a bulk of his time at A ball where he slashed .278/.358/.530 with 16 home runs with a 16.0% strikeout rate and a 10.4% walk rate. He scuffled a bit in his 45 PA at High-A, but the Rays felt confident enough to start him off at Double-A this season and he has not disappointed them.

Gillaspie has about as much power of anyone on this list besides A.J. Reed and scouts believe there could be more for him to grow into. The switch-hitting first baseman gets a lot of props from scouts for his patient approach at the plate and power from both sides of the dish. He is not very fast and is generally regarded as a poor athlete, but he should be able to hit for enough pop to make up for that fact.

As tempted as I was to put Gillaspie’s teammate, Jake Bauers, on this list, I decided Gillaspie is the better option. Bauers does not hit for much power and is very likely to move to the outfield while Gillaspie is a true power hitter and is destined for first base in Tampa. Dynasty owners should expect the middle-of-the-order power bat to reach the majors by the start of next season.

Talent grade: 5

5. Dominic Smith (NYM, AA)
Stats: 249 PA, .269/.321/.379, 4 HR, 1 SB, 15.7% K rate, 7.2% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2017

The first first baseman on this list to not be 23-years-old, the 21-year-old Smith has about as much upside as any of them and has already started to impress scouts with his performance in the minors. Drafted only three years ago out of high school, Smith has already reached Double-A and appears to be knocking on the door of the big leagues.

The left-handed first baseman reminds me a lot of Josh Bell, the aforementioned Pirates first base prospect. Smith has plenty of raw power and is almost a guarantee to hit for a high average in the big leagues, but he has not turned the raw power into results just yet. Last season in 557 PA, Smith only hit seven home runs. In 518 PA in 2014, he hit only one. Granted his batting average and strikeout-to-walk ratios have always been outstanding, but for a first baseman to have much dynasty value he has to have some power.

Despite the lack of home runs, Smith is definitely worth owning in dynasty leagues. Scouts believe that the power will eventually come for him and even if it doesn’t, he will still hit for an outstanding average and reach base at rates among the league leaders. He is also only about a season away from the big leagues if he can move Lucas Duda out of the way (a tall task, but a plausible one nonetheless) or he could be up sooner if he is dealt to another team.

Talent grade: 4.5

6. Josh Naylor (MIA, A)
Stats: 225 PA, .254/.320/.434, 7 HR, 9 SB, 16.4% K rate, 8.0% BB rate
Age: 18
ETA: 2019

Taken with the 12th overall pick back in 2015, Naylor has already started to make waves in the minor leagues. Despite being the youngest player on this list, the 18-year-old first baseman has already reached A ball and could find himself at High-A before the end of this season.

Scouts love the power out of this young left-hander’s swing. He has often drawn comparisons to Prince Fielder both for his size and for his quick bat speed and extreme power. He is a very solid bet to hit over 25 home runs every season of his career and seems likely to contend for the home run crown in the National League in the future. To go along with his outstanding power, Naylor also has demonstrated a patient approach in his at-bats and should be able to be a .260+ hitter at the big leagues. Don’t be fooled by his nine stolen bases however, he is no speedster and any stolen base should be considered an outlier.

Why, if Naylor has all this potential, is he so far down this list? The answer is simple, he is probably three, maybe even four years away from reaching the big leagues. He is a stellar bat and is very likely to be the future number four hitter behind Giancarlo Stanton in Miami, but dynasty owners will first need to have some patience with the young prospect.

Talent grade: 4.5

7. Dan Vogelbach (CHC, AAA)
Stats: 243 PA, .312/.432/.543, 11 HR, 0 SB, 22.2% K rate, 16.5% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: Late 2016/Early 2017

If you were to look at those numbers and then look at Vogelbach’s career in the minors, you would probably wonder how a guy this talented hasn’t reached the big leagues just yet. I mean this guy has just killed it at every level of the minor leagues, typically walking nearly as much as he strikes out, hitting over .260 and mashing at least 15 home runs in every season.

And scouts back up the numbers with their observations of his skills. Scouts love his ability to spray the ball to all fields and his solid 20+ home run power. The general consensus on Vogelbach is that he is probably best suited to be a designated hitter as he lacks enough athleticism probably even to play first base, but for dynasty purposes, he is about as enticing of a bat as they come.

I really wanted to put Vogelbach higher on this list just for what he has accomplished in the minor leagues alone, but I simply could not do it. The problem is that with Anthony Rizzo manning first, there is no way Vogelbach reaches the big leagues unless he is traded to another team or the Cubs need a DH for a weekend. Dynasty owners should hope that he gets traded at the deadline or over the winter because he has no value until he is moved.

Talent grade: 4.5

8. Rhys Hoskins (PHI, AA)
Stats: 277 PA, .277/.339/.542, 17 HR, 0 SB, 25.3% K rate, 7.6% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: 2018

A big time sleeper, Hoskins has quietly put together an outstanding campaign at Double-A after breaking out between A and High-A in 2015. Currently tied with Peter O’Brien for third most home runs in all of the minor leagues, Hoskins has shown that his power is not a fluke as he hit 17 home runs last season in his first full season of professional baseball.

The best tool for Hoskins is (unsurprisingly) his power. Scouts believe that a leg kick he added prior to the 2015 season is the biggest factor in his increase in pop and it has helped him solidify himself among MiLB power hitters. There is some swing-and-miss in his game, but most scouts believe that he has enough patience at the dish to be able to make improvements the longer he plays. He does not appear to be a future .300 hitter at the big leagues, but he does not appear likely to pull a Ryan Howard and bat under .220 either.

Though a lack of athleticism worries scouts, dynasty owners should not nearly be as concerned. Maybe his future is as a designated hitter in the American League, but he is athletic enough to play adequate defense at first base if he stays with the Phillies. With his power potential, he is probably worth a stash even if he isn’t a future All-Star at the big league level.

Talent grade: 4

9. Matt Olson (OAK, AAA)
Stats: 252 PA, .212/.327/.387, 6 HR, 1 SB, 28.2% K rate, 14.7% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2017

Olson is a guy who has perplexed many. Some aren’t sure if he will be able to hit enough at the big leagues, some believe that he will be a future middle of the order bat. The one thing that remains unanimous about Olson is that he is a big time power hitter. Since 2013, Olson has hit 87 home runs split between five different levels of play. Granted his home run total died down a bit last season when he hit Double-A, but Midland (his home ball park) has a reputation for killing the numbers of power hitters.

Scouts see an almost prototypical first baseman when looking at Olson. He is really only athletic enough to play at first, though he could stretch into a below-average left fielder if needed. He hits for a lot of power and walks a ton, but his long swing tends to lead to a lot of strikeouts. What separates him from most is that he has not shown consistent struggles against left-handed pitching like most lefty power hitters do. That ability alone gives scouts hope that he may be able to hit for a respectable average in the big leagues.

Olson’s fate will almost entirely be decided on whether or not he can survive defensively in the outfield and if he can bring his batting average up. He has proven that he has the pop and plate discipline to play in the big leagues, but he needs to show that he can do slightly more than that to become a regular. My gut tells me he will reach the majors as a first baseman and gradually shift to the outfield while still batting fourth or fifth for the A’s. Dynasty owners should not be too concerned by his struggles at Triple-A as he has shown plenty of upside, but they also should understand that he may strike out too much to become a full-time starter.

Talent grade: 4

10. Bobby Bradley (CLE, A+)
Stats: 264 PA, .239/.356/.509, 15 HR, 2 SB, 31.4% K rate, 14.0% BB rate
Age: 20
ETA: 2018

Taken in the third round of the 2014 draft, Bradley has gone a little bit slower than some of the other first baseman on this list, but he stills shows plenty of promise. After slugging 27 home runs at A ball last season, Bradley has continued his power stroke into 2016 where he currently has hit 15 home runs in only 62 games. The downside? Like with other young power hitters, the astronomical strikeout rate holds him back. Both last season at A ball and this season at High-A, he has struck out over 30.0% of the time, much too high of a rate for that low of a level.

That really brings him back to most power hitters. Like the aforementioned Matt Olson, Bradley has enough power to skyrocket through the minors and into the big leagues, but he simply swings and misses too often. Scouts believe that he has an advanced approach to the plate (exhibited by his high walk rates), but that his tendency to pull the ball could wind up being his kryptonite.

Bradley is young enough that he could very well get over some of these issues and is probably worth keeping an eye on, but for dynasty purposes he is far enough away from the big leagues and has enough risks that he is not necessarily a must-own in shallower keeper leagues. In the larger dynasty leagues, however, he has plenty of power upside and is certainly worth a stash to see how he progresses through the minors.

Talent grade: 4

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