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As the quarterback carousel continued around the NFL, Matt Ryan was traded to the Indianapolis Colts after 14 seasons as the Atlanta Falcons' starting quarterback. Ryan goes down as one of the greatest Falcons of all time and was the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 2016. Ryan will be 37 years old this spring and many across the fantasy landscape are debating if he still has some juice left in the tank.
After Ryan and the Falcons posted a winning season in seven of his first 10 years in the league, they fell from grace with a losing season in each of the last four and began to embrace a full rebuild as ownership brought in a new regime for the 2021 season. The Falcons were considered the late favorites to land Deshaun Watson via trade from the Texans, but after the deal went sideways, they were left trying to figure out their relationship with Ryan, who had even elected to push his roster bonus back a few days until the dust had settled on his future.
Once Watson had decided on the Browns, the next domino to fall via trade was Ryan and the Colts were waiting in the wings ready to receive him.
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What Ryan brings to the Colts
The past few seasons have been a quarterback carousel for the Colts. Once Andrew Luck retired after the 2018 season, they have turned to Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz in consecutive seasons to be the starting quarterback without much success. Ryan is now the sixth starting QB for the Colts in six seasons (Andrew Luck missed all of 2017 with injury). While their offense isn't exactly the greatest show on turf as things stand currently, Jonathan Taylor brings plenty of balance to the offense and should help Matt Ryan in the play-action game where he thrives.
Ryan brings plenty of leadership and experience to the Colts. He has been a model of consistency throughout his NFL career, as he has only missed three out of a possible 225 games over a 14-year span. Let's call him Mr. Iron Man, even though he is coming off arguably the worst season of his career (75.8 grade on PFF). To be fair, Calvin Ridley was on the football NFI list for much of the season and Julio Jones was traded to the Titans. The Falcons' offensive line has been getting worse for years and Ryan really didn't have anyone else remotely competent for fantasy purposes besides Russell Gage and Cordarelle Patterson to work with, which could have a lot to do with why he struggled this past season.
Ryan will get a boost from playing indoors with the Colts as his PFF grade is over 20.0 points higher indoors than it is outdoors during the last two years. Ryan also performs better when he isn't constantly under duress like he was in Atlanta. According to Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus: "In 2021, Ryan had a PFF grade of 90.4 from a clean pocket and provided a very low turnover-worthy play rate of 1.6%. However, when he was under pressure, Ryan's PFF grade went down to a paltry 50.1, and his turnover-worth play rate jumped to 5.6%." As we can see, playing for a team like Indianapolis with a solid offensive line is paramount to Ryan's success at this stage of his career.
Matt Ryan a Solid QB2?
When we are making projections for the upcoming season, it is important to assess how a player's offense will be around him, as well as to look at how a player finished among his peers in fantasy in years past to get an overall gauge. Here is how Ryan has finished the last several years:
2021 - QB20
2020 - QB12
2019 - QB11
2018 - QB2
2017 - QB15
2016 - QB2
While it is probably a stretch to think Ryan could get back to being the overall QB2 in fantasy at 37 years of age, he is a player who comes with a relatively high floor but also a lower ceiling due to his lack of rushing ability. In Indianapolis, Ryan has the top running back in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor, a much better offensive line lead by behemoth Quenton Nelson, and a promising young receiver in Michael Pittman Jr. T.Y. Hilton is back for another season, but the Colts could certainly use some added depth at wide receiver and tight end in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Matt Ryan is a player who keeps himself in great shape and his career has been relatively injury-free, which makes me feel like it can still continue for several more seasons. While he has lost a little bit of the zip on his deep ball throws, it did not appear on any of the films from 2021 that he has lost his arm strength and shouldn't have any problems at all in the intermediate passing game.
Ryan will be an absolute steal if you can land him as your third QB in Superflex leagues, but I like him as a safe QB2 while paired up with a mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, where his relatively safe floor can help you weather some potential up-and-down weeks. Ryan is also a solid streaming option in 1QB leagues and could be a late bargain in dynasty startups. While I am not expecting league-winning upside from him, Ryan is a safe QB2 option and his value will be at its peak in Superflex formats.
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