Can Matt Olson Live Up to Preseason Expectations in Atlanta?

June 2, 2022

Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson was a high pick in fantasy baseball drafts but hasn't lived up to expectations early in 2022. Justin Dunbar explains whether he is still a stud for fantasy baseball.

The phrase "you have big shoes to fill" can often be overused, but there are times when it is completely applicable. Generally, this saying is utilized when someone is succeeding someone in a certain position that had been very successful. For instance, should the CEO of a flourishing company retire, the person taking his place would be seen as having "big shoes to fill."

There may be no better field to use this phrase in than sports, where rosters change constantly. Thus, the players who stay on a team for a long period of time can draw attachment from the fanbase, and for good reason; there are few players whose jerseys a fan can purchase and feel comfortable they will be on the team next season.

At the end of the day, though, sports are a business, particularly at a time when player movement is at an all-time high. As teams look for an ever-incremental edge and continue to separate emotion from their process, a player's previous impact on a franchise may only continue to be less and less significant in the decision-making process. Take, for example, Freddie Freeman and the Braves this past offseason as they found a younger version in Matt Olson, whose fantasy profile we'll examine in depth.

Filling Freddie Freeman's Shoes

Fresh off of their first World Series championship since 1995, the Braves were heavily expected to "run it back" with a similar core as last year, which has become standard practice for defending World Series champions. Of course, they'd reward Freeman, a player that had been a key part of their team since 2021 and had stuck with them through their rebuild, with a new contract, right? In the end, they had different ideas.

Although Atlanta reportedly did make some sort of attempt to re-sign Freeman, it's unclear how serious those attempts were, as Freeman put it in his introductory press conference after signing a six-year, $162 million contract with the Dodgers:

"“The communication wasn’t all there in the offseason. I got two phone calls. … I got more from Andrew [Friedman, the Dodgers president] to my agent in a matter of a couple hours. I didn’t know what was going on. I got one call the day [from the Braves] before the lockout, just checking in, and got one call when the lockout was lifted, just checking in. I didn’t know how to interpret that,” Freeman explained."

With Freeman being a 32-year-old first baseman, it is reasonable to see why general manager Alex Anthopoulos was hesitant to commit to him long-term, even though it is very unfortunate. Instead, he turned his attention to a direct replacement for Freeman- Matt Olson. Not only did Anthopoulos trade four legitimate prospects for Olson, but he proceeded to sign the former A's first baseman to an eight-year contract extension.

When you directly replace a franchise icon and also have to live up to expectations based on the cost of the trade and contract extension, expectations are going to be at an all-time high. For Olson, it may have taken an MVP campaign, or at least a repeat of his peak year last season, to match those expectations.

So far, that hasn't quite happened. So, can Olson completely fill the massive shoes left behind by Freeman? That is the $168 million dollar contract that likely is at the top of the mind of all Braves fans right now. Today, let's take a look at Olson's history, his 2021 surge, and what we've seen from him this season to solve the puzzle.

Matt Olson's Rise To an Elite First Baseman

The term "reach" is often used when a team picks a player earlier than expected. When it comes to drafting, the dichotomy between picking the players you have the most conviction in and trying to game the draft to get the best available haul possible.

Considering that Matt Olson was Baseball America's 96th overall-ranked draft prospect and not in MLB Pipeline's top-50 list, it certainly profiled as a surprise when the A's selected him with the 47th overall pick. That being said, Oakland was betting on him, as a dynamic two-way talent, flourishing as a full-time hitter, which is exactly what he did.

After tearing up the lower levels of the minors, notably posting a 145 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) as a 20-year-old in High-A, Olson was up in Double-A at just 21-years-old in 2015, where he continued to thrive with a 132 wRC+. That being said, MLB Pipeline was the only major prospect outlet to rank him as a top-100 prospect, and even then, he fell to the #100 overall spot prior to the 2016 season, before falling off of it entirely after a down year in Triple-A. Simply put, this is not a player that was expected to become an impact All-Star.

In 2017, though, Olson quickly changed that narrative. Back in Triple-A, he absolutely dominated, posting a 137 wRC+ with an absurd .296 isolated power (ISO) in 343 plate appearances before earning an MLB call-up. However, this was just the start of an absolutely remarkable season.

In just 216 plate appearances in the majors, Olson slugged 24(!) home runs as a rookie, translating to a .392 ISO and 164 wRC+. I'm sorry, what? Sometimes, you struggle to adjust to MLB pitching as a rookie, and sometimes, you just perform like Babe Ruth. Remember, he was still just 23-years-old!

Of course, 2017 still served as a small sample, and it was reasonable to assume that the MLB would adapt to him. That did happen in 2018, but even then, a 119 wRC+ in your first full season is not something to take lightly, especially since his quality of contact numbers all pointed to him being better than that. Thus, it wasn't a surprise to see him take a step forward (135 wRC+) in 2019, cementing himself as one of the best first basemen in all of baseball.

Then, 2020 happened. Since nothing could go as planned during this time, Olson performed as a league-average hitter (103 wRC+). Although a lot of that was due to a .227 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), his strikeout rate jumped to 31.4%, which was a clear concern. If his jump in walk rate couldn't sustain, would he get on base enough to be the All-Star he looked destined to be?

Fortunately, as in most parts of 2020, this turned out to be a flash in the pan.

Olson's Spectacular 2021 Season

As a result of his difficult 2020 season, Olson's relative stock appeared to fall. MLB Network ranked him as just the eighth-best first baseman, while in fantasy leagues, he went from the #4 first baseman to the #7 first baseman in the NFBC Main Event, per rotoholic.com. At the time, it wasn't exactly clear what to make of the 2020 season, and in hindsight, I'm sure we all wish we could simply normalize that season.

Really, if you just take away Olson's 2020 season, his career looks like a standard progression. Overall, he hit for a career-high 146 wRC+ with a .271/.371/.540 slash line, ranking second amongst first basemen after Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and yes, ahead of Freeman. As a result, he finally received his first All-Star appearance and even finished eighth in AL MVP voting. There's no sugarcoating it; he was phenomenal.

The most promising aspect, though, was how Olson achieved this success. Remember those strikeouts from 2020 that were concerning? Well, with just a 16.8% strikeout rate in 2021, he cut that rate in half. As opposed to developing power, improving your strikeout rate by this much is not something that is common, based on previous research. Sometimes, though, outliers present themselves.

Plus, this was an improvement completely backed by his underlying metrics. Olson's 9.9% swinging-strike rate was the lowest of his career, while he was also more aggressive in the zone (72.2% swing), leading to the lowest amount of called strikes (13.3%) of his career. Furthermore, almost all of the contact improvements came from him becoming league average in terms of making contact in the zone (81.6%), which considering how little he swings outside the zone, is even more significant. There's no better to pitch to do damage with than a fastball in the zone, so by making more frequent contact in these situations (16.9%), he was putting himself in a very advantageous state.

Since strikeouts don't correlate as strongly to offensive performance as one may think, this may not appear to be a significant change. However, this is only because the trade-off to more frequent contact quantity is diminished contact quality. Yet, this wasn't the case for Olson; his 12.7% barrel rate and 48.8% hard-hit rate are both very strong numbers. Plus, when you look at the quality of contact statistics on a per-plate appearance basis, the amount of contact he made meant that the amount of barrels and balls over 95 MPH per swing were actually right in line or better than previous seasons. Thus, in this case, the improvement in the strikeout rate is quite important.

Another interesting development for Olson? After being extremely pull-happy (49.7%) in 2019, he only pulled the ball on 39.5% of his batted balls in 2021. Being on the wrong side of variance in terms of his line-drive rate (19.7%) hurt his overall batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but Olson could feasibly have posted a .300 batting average and .400 on-base percentage with standard batted-ball luck last season, which is not the player he was expected to be. The batting average is more significant for fantasy purposes, though, this newly-found on-base ability was very intriguing, especially if it came with the type of power (.269 ISO) he demonstrated despite playing half of his games in Oakland.

With the A's entering rebuilding mode and Olson coming off of an elite season, they didn't waste any time trying to capitalize on it, trading him to the Braves even before Freeman had signed with the Dodgers. Going from Oakland to Atlanta, it was easy to imagine him hitting 40+ home runs, with tons of on-base ability as well if last year's gains stuck around. As things stand, though, things haven't gone completely as planned.

Olson's 2022 Season- A True Mixed Bag

Coming into the season, Olson had the eighth-best odds to win NL MVP, and was drafted in the third round in the NFBC Main Event. Regardless of how you spin it, expectations were exceptionally high for him to produce right away for the Braves, a team who came into the year as the favorites to win the NL East and were right behind the Dodgers in odds to win the National League. In other words, a slow start would not be tolerated.

Overall, Olson has been tremendous this season, posting a 138 wRC+ with a .263/.373/.484 slash line that is impressive in the current run environment. That being said, over the past six weeks, he only has a 102 wRC+ and .208/.311/.417 slash line. While it's normal for players to go through dry spells, the preseason expectations placed upon him magnify any sort of struggles, particularly as the Braves continue to play below-.500 baseball.

Plus, it isn't as though it has been a perfect season for Olson. His fly-ball rate is dramatically down (18.4%) from years past, and he's hitting ground balls (47.4%) on nearly half of his batted balls. Furthermore, his swinging-strike rate (12.3%) has spiked above his career rate, leading to an increased strikeout rate of 23.2%. Put it together, and assuming his .331 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) normalizes, the overall numbers may not look as strong for Olson.

So, where does the root of these problems come from? Strangely, it comes down to Olson not doing damage on pitches he should be. For perspective, here is his expected weighted-on base average (xwOBA) on pitches described as being in the heart of the zone by Baseball Savant:

MATT OLSON xwOBA ON PITCHES IN HEART OF ZONE

• 2017: .537 xwOBA
• 2018: .412 xwOBA
• 2019: .460 xwOBA
• 2021: .460 xwOBA
• 2022: .380 xwOBA

That's a notable fall off from his past seasons. In fact, Olson has a negative-eight run value on pitches at the heart of the zone, meaning that these favorable pitches have actually been a net negative for him this season. That certainly is not normal, and it correlates with him whiffing (34.4%) more on four-seam fastballs, as well as not hitting them as hard (45.5% hard-hit).

In today's game, the most common bat path is one featuring a higher vertical bat angle. In layman's terms, this means a steeper swing that allows for more launch, but also leaves one vulnerable on outside pitches. This has been a common problem for Olson, as evidenced by swing-and-miss charts.

For context, here is Olson's whiff rate per pitch zone in 2019:

In 2021, meanwhile, his weaknesses improved greatly:

That is quite the improvement in making contact on the outer half on the zone! Unfortunately, though, 2022 looks far too similar to 2019:

Sigh. Strangely, there isn't anything mechanically to point to, but seasons are an arbitrage as is; 2021 is looking like a slight outlier for his strikeout rate. Now, he's still making more contact in the zone (77%) than before and has a more aggressive approach, but a sub-20% strikeout rate would be a difficult projection to make.

Meanwhile, the mental aspect of this can not be ignored. After all, he's having to try to meet massive expectations for his hometown team (he's originally from Georgia) while also adjusting to a new league, facing pitchers he's never faced before. That isn't easy, folks, and it's easy to wonder if he is pressing at the plate:

As you can see, Olson is swinging more outside the zone as the season has gone on, as well as whiffing more. Those are usually two variables to look for when a player is with a new team, and it seems that there is still an adjustment phase happening. Now, for Olson, a very hot start to the season delayed it slightly, but it's in full effect now.

At the end of the day, though, hitters go through hot and cold streaks. That's why we rely on large sample sizes to evaluate players! Although it's unclear if Olson will repeat his exceptional 2021 season, he's still at least a slight upgrade over the player he was in 2019, which is a very high-end player. We're starting to see some signs again of him coming into his own after the past week, and it's a matter of time before this is all a mirage in the past.

Overview

At the end of the day, your feelings about a player's performance come down to expectations. Matt Olson being a better version of who he was in 2019 is a tremendous player, but after what he accomplished in 2021 and him being the direct replacement for Freddie Freeman, expectations got to a point where he needed to perform at a 90th percentile outcome to meet them.

The Braves remain far too talented all-around to not eventually heat up as a lineup, and as a result, make a postseason push. Olson is going to be at the center of that, and with him being just 28-years-old, he should have multiple high-end seasons ahead. When a player appears to take a chance that Olson did in 2021, it's easy to assume that is the new version of them. Perhaps Olson will once again unlock some of those powers this season, but baseball is a difficult game, and sometimes, outlier seasons happen.

Don't be mistaken, though; this is one of the elite first basemen in the game. At the end of the day, although we can't be as confident about his highest range of outcomes, a repeat of last season with better batted-ball luck, coming into fruition, this is still mainly the player he should have been expected to be coming into the season. As the weather heats up, expect Olson and the Braves to get just as hot, as the order is restored in the universe.

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