X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Lessons Learned from the 2018 NFL Season

Pierre Camus reflects on the 2018 NFL season from a fantasy football perspective to advise readers on lessons learned in order to improve their draft strategy for the upcoming season.

As we officially put a bow on the 2018 NFL season, it's good practice to look back at the trends and movements that shaped the past year before moving forward. Fantasy football owners experienced many ups and downs, culminating in an unpredictable final few weeks that undoubtedly led to playoff upsets galore.

Whether you hoisted a trophy or are looking for redemption in 2019, we encourage you to reflect on your draft process. Did you target RB early like everyone else? Did you pick the right quarterback or were you forced to stream the position?

As a fantasy football writer, editor, ranker, and player who claimed the top spot in three leagues this year, including our very own RotoBaller Experts League, I decided it was worth sharing what I learned in the process. My hope is that you can learn from my successes and mistakes in order to get the best return on investment when it's time to draft for 2019. For the record, I did have one team where my starting lineup on Week 1 included Derek Carr, Jordan Howard, Dion Lewis, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Michael Crabtree and David Njoku. I renamed that team "Learning Experience." Speaking of, here are some key lessons I learned in 2018.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Waiting on QB Isn't Just a Good Idea, It's Essential

Visuals are always good, especially simple ones. Let's look at the first 10 fantasy quarterbacks drafted in 2018, according to NFFC ADP.

Now, here were the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in terms of overall points, courtesy of FantasyData.

You'll notice that four of the first 10 quarterbacks, drafted to be fantasy starters, didn't finish in the top 10. Rodgers and Wilson, two of the top three choices, were in the lower half of those standings. Watson was fourth when it was all said and done but he was slightly unpredictable, ranking as the ninth-most consistent QB throughout the fantasy regular season. Most of that production came early in the season too, as he put together four straight 300-yard passing games between Weeks 2-5. From Week 9 on, or when it really mattered most, he only cracked 300 yards once and didn't toss more than two touchdowns in a game. You were better off streaming Josh Allen or Jameis Winston instead.

Conversely, we know that Pat Mahomes was taken in the latter half of most drafts, we all severely underestimated Andrew Luck's comeback and vets like Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger never get respect from the fantasy community even though they perpetually put up big passing numbers. This year, players like Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, Cam Newton or even Drew Brees may be undervalued because of either injuries or age concerns. Why take a player like Goff or Wilson when you can wait several rounds later and get comparable value?

It should also be noted that taking a QB late doesn't guarantee success. If you drafted Matthew Stafford, which I cleverly did in multiple leagues, or someone like Derek Carr, you had no choice but to take to the waiver wire. This year's rookie QB class is not as talented or NFL-ready as last year's so you won't have someone like Mayfield or Allen as readily available. Hold off on quarterback until after the first 100 picks are off the board and then shoot for upside. If you're in a deep-enough league where you feel the need to roster two QBs, my favorite strategy is the same approach I have in best-ball formats - grab one high-ceiling player (Winston, Mayfield, Wentz) and then follow soon thereafter with a high-floor pick (Rivers, Prescott) in order to hedge your bet.

 

Take an Elite TE or None At All

There is no bigger discrepancy in positional value than that of tight end. In full PPR scoring, three tight ends finished over 250 fantasy points and only four other players finished over 150 fantasy points. The next 11 TE were completely interchangeable, posting between 104-147 total points, a difference of three points per week. If you owned Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, or George Kittle, you had a clear advantage over the competition with a player that was just as valuable as a low-end WR1. If you didn't, you either lucked into grabbing Eric Ebron early in the year or you may as well have streamed the position.

Early ADP indicates Kelce is creeping into the late second round with Ertz and Kittle gone by the mid-third round. After that, there's no need to reach on Eric Ebron or Jared Cook in hopes of repeating their unlikely success. Wait it out until the first 10 tight ends are off the board and grab a rising player like Austin Hooper or Chris Herndon IV. Not having a reliable player at a thin position where you must start one each week is unsettling, so don't hesitate to target someone like Ertz or Kittle before loading up on WR in the middle rounds.

 

Running Back Will Make or Break You

This might seem obvious but not in the way you think. See, the ZeroWR movement caught steam a few years ago and was in full effect until Episode 2017 a.k.a. "Return of the Running Back" premiered. Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt all had breakout seasons and joined DJ, Zeke, Lev Bell, Melvin Gordon and Saquon Barkley as first-round picks in most drafts, making nine of the first 12 over players selected. We know the fate suffered by those who took Bell or Fournette, while Hunt owners who missed out on Damien Williams likely crapped out early in the playoffs without some fortuitous mid-to-late-round drafting or savvy waiver wire moves.

The thing is, even if you picked Gurley or Gordon, you still needed help in the fantasy playoffs to replace the studs you'd been riding all year long. Bad word choice there probably but you know what I mean. It's not just about selecting the right running back early or even how you draft at all, it's about having the best stable of backs to choose from in any given week. It would seem wise to stash running backs as often as possible throughout the year, even if their playing time is unclear. Those who took a chance on Phillip Lindsay after Week 1 or Gus Edwards after Week 11 were rewarded with a solid RB2. The #AllBenchRB theory espoused by colleague Brett Mitchell has plenty of legs after a season that saw the top running backs miss large chunks of time, especially late in the year. Which leads us to the next point...

 

Treat the Fantasy Playoffs Like a Separate Season

In baseball, it's not uncommon for players to "flip the switch" and suddenly get re-energized after the All-Star break. Conversely, others get bogged down by the long season and see their numbers decline in the second half. In the NFL, this doesn't happen because, well there is no break. Other than the occasional rookie hitting a wall, players are relatively consistent each week. Still, there are plenty of changes that occur in the latter stages of the season.

Injuries to star players like Odell Beckham, Todd Gurley, James Conner, Aaron Jones and A.J. Green caused them to be absent for the most important part of the season; this required owners to shift gears at the last minute. Steady contributors like Marvin Jones, Kerryon Johnson, Sammy Watkins and others were prematurely shut down to either rest for the playoffs or be saved for next season. Then there's Kareem Hunt.

If you were able to grab the right replacement players like Jaylen SamuelsJamaal Williams, Damien Williams, C.J. Anderson, Justin Jackson, Robby Anderson, Robert FosterEvan Engram, or Josh Allen right before the fantasy playoffs, these unlikely heroes may have led you to a championship. In the RotoBaller Experts League, I found myself with a starting lineup that included five of those players, all of whom I'd plucked off waivers between Weeks 13-15. Yes, you can cobble together a championship team from the scrap heap at the last minute, assuming you have a solid core intact (it helps that I had Nuk, JuJu, and Luck on my side). That leads to our final point...

 

You Can Build a Winner Off Waivers Alone

This sounds extreme but it's based in fact. You've already seen the QB ADP list - Mahomes wasn't drafted in every league and neither were popular late-season streamers like Prescott, Allen, or Mayfield. At running back, Conner and Lindsay were mostly undrafted while players like Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack, James White, and Derrick Henry were dropped early on in some leagues. You remember what Derrick Henry did during the fantasy playoffs, I assume (492 yards and seven TD between Weeks 14-16).

Wide receiver is a little deeper but there are always players worth streaming in a given week based on matchup. In the first half of the year, you could have picked any WR3 on a team facing the Bucs and gotten double-digit fantasy points out of it. You need a rock at WR1, don't get me wrong, but the rest of the way you can mix and match if done the right way (using RotoBaller's rankings, matchup tool, and analysis articles of course!)

Caveat #1 - If you're in a 16-team league or crazy deep league with five or more bench spots per team, this won't work. There has to be at least a decent player pool available.

Caveat #2 - You can't stream every single position every week. It just doesn't work that way. In fantasy football, you need at least one or two elite players to count on, regardless of position. Find the right anchor early on (Gurley, Hopkins, McCaffrey, Kelce, etc.) and then be ready to compensate for your draft-day mistakes each and every week through waivers.

The bottom line is that your fantasy draft is just the beginning of the team-building process. You must be ready to move quickly on key free agents and cut bait before a fledgling player becomes an albatross hanging around your team's neck. The smart fantasy player is always looking ahead, not back to last year's stats or ADP. And that's exactly why we are here, already planning for drafts to be held in the summer before we know where rookies or free agents will wind up. It's never too soon to prepare - that's how RotoBallers roll.

More Fantasy Football Year-in-Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs With Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal With Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
Grayson Murphy

Could Provide Rotational Pass-Rush Depth
Joe Andreessen

in a Good Position to Compete for Backup Job
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Bhayshul Tuten

Needs to Improve Pass Protection
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
EDM

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact With Oilers
SEA

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
PHI

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NYI

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NJ

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
SJ

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF