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Analysis of five fantasy baseball third basemen drafted in the later rounds. Are these 3B undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. But it's essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy, and also avoid players with some question marks coming into the season.
Today we are looking at some later-round third basemen for you to consider drafting, and also those to be cautious of. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
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Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
At 36 years old some may be questioning Justin Turner and whether he is worth drafting anymore in fantasy baseball. But looking at his recent track record, there is not a whole lot to doubt, at least not in the numbers. Turner continues to flash some of the best plate discipline you will see as he consistently limits the strikeouts, sporting a 14.9 percent strikeout rate in 2020, on par with his 14.6 career norm.
He also increased the walks last season and had a walk rate over 10 percent for the third time in four years. This led to him once again being a great source of average, hitting .307 in 2020, he has hit over .300 in three of the past four seasons now and in the lone exception, he hit .290. The one knock on Turner is the lack of power, as he only hit four homers in 2020 and the ISO dropped to his lowest since 2014.
But, there's reasons to be optimistic the power can return to his 2019 form. The past two seasons his exit velocity (90.3) and maxEV (107.8) have been nearly identical, while his barrel percent reached a career high 11.2 percent last year and has climbed each of the past two seasons. The best part is you do not need to pay up to get Turner. In recent ADP Turner is going around pick 224, meaning you can wait on third base and still end up with a very solid batting average, RBI and potentially HR contributor.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves third baseman/outfielder Austin Riley is being tabbed as a sleeper in 2021 with the potential for a power outbreak after hitting eight homers in 51 games last year while increasing his average exit velocity. While we wouldn't bet against growth, context is needed. In 2020, Riley increased his exit velocity on ground balls, but it actually declined on line drives and fly balls.
His ground-ball rate also increased, while his line-drive and fly-ball rates dropped. That suggests a different approach is needed to translate his power potential into home runs. What was most impressive last year was Riley's strikeout rate, as it dropped from 36.4% to 23.8% while he improved his walk rate from 5.4% to 7.8%. If those gains hold, he should be able to turn that into a batting average around .250. The Braves lineup is one of the most potent in the league, and only the Dodgers scored more runs than them last year.
Despite exclusively batting in the bottom half of the Braves lineup, Riley still ranked 15th in runs scored (24) and 12th in RBI (27) among third basemen last year. Riley only has 131 total MLB games under his belt and won't turn 24 until April, so he is still very much developing. His current ADP is around 217, so you won't use up much draft capital for 2021 to roster him. While we should temper expectations a bit this year, Riley can still provide solid power and counting stats for your teams in 2021.
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
While not quite the player he was a half-decade or so ago, Kyle Seager has continued to be a solid and dependable veteran in the time since. 2020 was no different, as he just sort of did his usual thing en route to another strong season. Along the way though, he did make some improvements. Most notably, his strikeout rate dropped to a career-best 13.3% due to a new career-best chase rate. This definitely helped him walk more, as he also set a new career-best in that department.
In terms of batted-balls, Seager made more high-quality contact. His barrel-rate was yet another new career-high at 10.2%, and well above the league-average. Throw in a hard-hit rate that is right in line with where it's been the last three seasons, and also better than league-average, and it's clear how he put up his usual above-average production. For drafts, Seager is not the most glamorous name at this stage of his career, and the market currently reflects that.
His ADP is somewhere in the 260 range, and he's around the 30th 3B off the board. However, the projections suggest that he'll put up a similar season to 2020, which includes an upper-20's home run total. Seager likely won't contribute much in batting average or steals, but he should continue to be a good counting stats option hitting in the middle of the Mariners order, especially so late in drafts. It would be unwise to ignore the dependable veteran considering the draft cost.
J.D. Davis, New York Mets
Third baseman/outfielder J.D. Davis took a step back in 2020. In what was expected to be a breakout season, Davis posted just a .247 batting average to go with six home runs and 19 RBI in 190 at-bats. Extrapolated over the course of a full 162-game season, Davis' production only equated to a 16 HR, 50 RBI campaign. Davis' power struggles resulted from decreased line drive and fly ball rates, a drop in overall barrel rate, a huge overall launch angle dip to 3.3 degrees down from 10.6 degrees in 2019, and a groundball rate that rose to 56.3% from 47% in 2019.
Notably, Davis posted an elite exit velocity of 96.1 mph on FB/LD, which was in the top-20 in all of MLB for qualified batters. While this suggests a 2021 HR rebound, his groundball tendencies, if not addressed, could cap such positive regression. Davis' lower batting average in 2020 resulted from a much lower contact rate outside the zone and continued issues with the breaking ball, hitting only .150 against such offerings. Looking to 2021, Davis should see a rebound in HR totals, though expectations should be tempered due to GB%. Based on his other 2020 hitting metrics, Davis should also see positive regression in batting average, particularly if he can get his contact rate outside the zone closer to his career average.
That said, Davis will remain more valuable in on-base-percentage formats where he maintained solid on-base skills in 2020 behind a 13.5% walk rate (up from 8.4% in 2019). With a current 214 ADP, Davis can provide managers with boring but solid returns in the later rounds of drafts. Managers can reasonably expect around 20-22 HR, 60-70 RBI, and an average close to .270 from the Mets regular third baseman.
Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks
After enjoying a career season in 2019, Eduardo Escobar was a significant disappointment in 2020, as he hit just four homers in 54 games and his BA dropped nearly 60 points. The ISO was nearly cut in half, from .242 to .123. His HR/FB% tumbled from a career-high 15.2 to 6.1.The career-low .244 BABIP was obviously unfortunate. Escobar's xBA of .263 points to a rebound in that regard. Yet Escobar's WOBA of .253 was in the Bottom 4 percent of the league, and the xWOBA fell to .294.
His Launch Angle of 18.1 and Exit Velocity of 88.6 pretty much stayed in tune with his norms. His Hard Hit Rate of 31.7 was not an outlier from the previous season, either. The trends certainly seem to point to outstanding luck in 2019 and just the opposite in 2020. We should be expecting Escobar to deliver a statistical compromise from the last two seasons of extremes.
It is reasonable to foresee an adequate BA and a return to better, but not superb HR numbers. The fantasy community has been very reactive to the stinker of a 2020 season, as Escobar has an ADP of 301. That may be a bit low of a range, as he can return to some levels of respectability. The Diamondbacks will maintain confidence in Escobar by keeping him in the middle of their lineup.
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