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Dan Fornek looks at Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell's fantasy outlook for the 2021 season. Is he a rookie running back draft sleeper to draft?
After a stellar 2019 at Memphis, many football fans (fantasy or otherwise) got excited for the prospects of Kenneth Gainwell Jr. in the backfield. Gainwell Jr. was the lead rushing option for the Tigers, pushing future second-round pick Antonio Gibson to a role as a wide receiver in college. Heading into the 2020 offseason, it seemed like he would continue to ascend and become a prospect worth watching for the NFL.
Then COVID happened. Gainwell opted out of his 2020 season to prepare for the NFL draft and to avoid COVID. Because of that, Gainwell became an afterthought in the draft process as players like Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams produced and opted to go pro after last season. Unfortunately for Gainwell, a lost season caused a loss of momentum and forced him into the background of what ended up being a running back class.
The combinations of solid 2020 seasons and a lackluster Pro Day performance caused Gainwell to fall to a fifth-round selection to the Philadelphia Eagles as the RB9 overall in the class. With draft capital and a landing spot at our disposal, we can now figure out if Gainwell can carve out a role despite his status as a Day 3 pick.
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College Production
Gainwell joined Memphis as a three-star recruit in 2018 and made a minimal impact as a redshirt freshman for the Tigers in 2018. Memphis leaned heavily on more established players like Darrell Henderson (2,204 all-purpose yards and 25 total touchdowns), Patrick Taylor Jr. (1,319 all-purpose yards and 18 total touchdowns), and Tony Pollard (1,010 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns). However, Henderson (third-round pick of the Rams) and Pollard (fourth-round pick of the Cowboys) left the program for the NFL draft after their junior years, giving Gainwell his chance to produce.
Gainwell quickly jumped Patrick Taylor Jr. on the depth chart and turned in one of the more impressive seasons for any running back in 2019. The redshirt sophomore ranked 21st in rushing attempts (231), finished 12th in rushing yards (1,453), and scored 13 rushing touchdowns. Gainwell was even more accomplished as a receiver, leading running backs in receiving yards (610) despite being fourth in receptions (51). In total, Gainwell finished fourth in the nation in total yards from scrimmage (2,069) and sixth in yards per attempt (7.3). Even more impressive: Gainwell was able to produce at that level despite competing with a future third-round pick running back who was playing wide receiver at the time (Antonio Gibson).
Unfortunately, we never got to see another year of development from Gainwell. The running back decided to opt-out of the 2020 season due to COVID and focused on training for the NFL draft.
Rookie Year Situation
Despite his prolific stats in college, Gainwell turned in a relatively mediocre pro day performance, measuring at 5’8 and 201 pounds while running a 4.52 40-yard dash (image above provided by PlayerProfiler.com). Of all of the Memphis products to make the NFL the past two seasons, Gainwell was by far the least explosive but arguably possesses the best hands. A lack of game film from 2020 combined with the less than stellar testing numbers caused Gainwell to fall to the fifth round of the NFL draft, where he was taken by the Philadelphia Eagles.
The former Memphis Tiger will have his work cut out for him in Philadelphia, with an explosive incumbent starter (Miles Sanders) and plenty of NFL veterans with playing experience ahead of him (Boston Scott and Jordan Howard). A mobile quarterback (Jalen Hurts) and questionable offensive line further complicate the first-year outlook for the Day 3 selection. Carries will be difficult to come by for Gainwell his rookie season with so much experience ahead of him on the depth chart. Thankfully for Gainwell, he likely has the best receiving ability of any of the running backs in Philadelphia, especially with camp reports stating that Miles Sanders has struggled catching the ball during team situations.
If Gainwell is going to have an impact, it will likely come through the air assuming there are no injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.
Fantasy Outlook
As of this article, Gainwell is currently coming off the board in the 12th round of fantasy drafts as RB51, according to NFFC ADP. In PPR leagues, that represents fine value as a late-round dart throw who could see an early-season third-down role. His role could grow if he continues to produce well in the preseason and throughout training camp or if Sanders suffers an injury throughout the 2021 NFL season.
Gainwell is especially enticing for fantasy players who opt to attack the wide receiver position early in drafts and hope to get late value at the running back position.
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