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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Houston Texans to identify potential values and busts.
The Houston Texans have been winning the AFC South most of the time in recent memory. Yet, they cannot reach the conference championship game. After jumping out to a stunning lead against the high-octane Chiefs AT THEIR HOUSE last season in the playoffs, the Texans got their doors blown out once KC’s engine started.
After the 51-31 shellacking in the Divisional Round, the team made the list of biggest offseason losers after coach and GM Bill O’Brien traded stud WR1 DeAndre Hopkins for a burrito and some chips and guacamole (I have also heard different trade packages that featured soup and a loaf of bread being involved in this deal, but it’s still unclear as to what was involved). Whatever Hopkins was traded for, the Texans did not receive enough in return.
2020 should see the Colts and Titans generally be competitive in the division, so Houston will have its fair share of competition to reach the playoffs despite having an electrifying QB in Deshaun Watson. Let’s break down the WRs unit and other positions on this team from a fantasy perspective:
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Quarterback
As long as Deshaun Watson is on this team, the Texans always have a chance. The 24-year-old is mature on and off the field and is a true beast when it comes to playing football. Last season, he finished with similar stats to his 2018 campaign. Watson had 3,852 pass yards, 26 pass touchdowns, 12 picks, 7.8 pass yards per attempt, 256.8 pass yards per game, a 98-quarterback rating, 413 rush yards, and seven rush touchdowns. The QB had a 16.7 percent poor throws per pass attempt rate.
In fantasy, the Clemson product finished fifth last season among fantasy QBs after finishing fourth in 2018. Watson brings great fantasy value because of his stellar rushing abilities, and he finished fourth in rush yards among NFL QBs in 2019.
Watson will turn 25 during the 2020 season and is only beginning to head into his prime as he gets set to play his fourth NFL season. Because he has constantly proved himself, the QB is an elite fantasy option for 2020. Though the absence of Hopkins will hurt, there is no reason to doubt Watson because of his consistency, rushing upside, and the fact that there still are capable WRs such as Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller V. Because of this, you can roll with Watson as your QB1 in redraft leagues and he should once again be considered a top-five to top-seven fantasy QB heading into drafts.
Running Back
The Texans actually did get former Cardinals running back David Johnson in the Hopkins trade. He will serve as a replacement for RB Carlos Hyde who left for Seattle this offseason after rushing for over 1,000 yards as a Houston Texan last season.
As for Johnson, he has had one breakout year in his five-year career, which was 2016. The other four years have not been all that great from a stats perspective. Last season, the Northern Iowa product played 13 games for the Cardinals, but only accumulated 345 rush yards, two rush touchdowns, 3.7 rush yards per attempt, 26.5 rush yards per game, 36 receptions, 370 receiving yards, and four receiving touchdowns. He had 1.8 rush yards after contact per rush. He finished 37th among fantasy RBs thus.
The trade for former Dolphins RB Kenyan Drake during midseason foiled Johnson’s chance to be the star RB for Arizona and the writing on the wall was there for the 2015 pick. The 28-year-old’s tenure in the desert was often riddled with injuries, as the RB was sidelined for the 2017 season with a wrist injury along with missing some time in 2019 due to an ankle injury.
Though he should be considered the workhorse back on Houston, Johnson’s injury history may be a pause for concern. The RB has only had one breakout year in his career as well, and that will have been four seasons ago. It’s best to consider Johnson as an RB2 or RB3 on redraft teams when drafting considering owners have not seen his usage on the Texans yet. Of course, his status could elevate or decrease depending on how he plays as the 2020 season progresses.
The other back on this roster is former Brown Duke Johnson Jr. He is more of the pass-catching back. In his first season with Houston, the 26-year-old compiled 410 rush yards, two rush touchdowns, 4.9 rush yards per attempt, 25.6 rush yards per game, 62/534 targets (11.6%), 44 receptions, 410 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. Based on his stats, it’s easy to conclude his role is that of the secondary back who is used for Watson to dump off passes to.
The former Miami Hurricane finished 35th among fantasy RBs last season. The RB’s role on this team is not of the workhorse back, so his stats and usage will naturally be a bit skewed. Because of this, Duke Johnson is best viewed as a flex piece in redraft leagues.
Wide Receiver
Without DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans will head forward with the WR committee of Will Fuller V, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb. It’s impossible to tell who will be the WR1 out of this group. As the season progresses, owners should get more indication of that.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t help for draft purposes. In reality, all could be fantasy-relevant---to some extent. Cooks was brought in via trade to essentially replace Hopkins (another Bill O’Brien move). Nevertheless, the now “journeyman” WR took the back seat to fellow receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on the Rams last season.
In 14 games started last season, the 26-year-old managed to rack up 72 targets, 42 receptions, 583 yards, 13.9 yards per reception, two receiving touchdowns, 41.6 yards per game, and 52 rush yards. Cooks is capable of being a 1,000-yard receiver, as he had four consecutive ones before 2019 with the Saints, Patriots, and Rams. He should also see a fair number of targets from Deshaun Watson as the team looks to find their WR1.
The tricky aspect of this situation is there is no true, clear-cut WR1 on this team heading into drafts and that poses a lot of uncertainty. However, the safest options to choose are Cooks considering he was brought in for a reason, and Fuller, with whom Watson already has a strong rapport with. Cooks can be considered a WR2 or WR3 in redraft leagues to begin 2020.
26-year-old Will Fuller is the quintessential “boom or bust” fantasy player. He has averaged 14.3 yards per catch in his four-year NFL career and has been the big-play guy on this team. He finished second on the team in receiving last season, after Hopkins. The Notre Dame product sealed 49 receptions, 71/534 targets (13.3%), 670 yards, 13.7 yards per catch, and three touchdowns in 11 games played for 2019.
A lasting concern for Fuller will be setbacks, as he has nursed several injuries throughout his career. This has resulted in the WR not playing a 16-game set at all in four of his NFL years. Nevertheless, with his role set to expand, consider Fuller a WR2 for redraft as he and Cooks will headline this WRs unit.
Kenny Stills can be considered a flex piece in larger redraft leagues (think 12-14+ teams). Stills accumulated 40 receptions, 55/534 targets (10.3%), 561 yards, 14 yards per catch, four touchdowns, and 43.2 yards per game last season as the WR3 on the team.
Meanwhile, Randall Cobb, a longtime Packer, played one season for the Dallas Cowboys in 2019. There, he compiled 55 receptions, 83 targets, 828 yards, 15.1 yards per catch, three touchdowns, and 55.2 yards per game. If his role stays like this in Houston, he can merit flex value; however, it’s unclear how it will pan out. With Fuller, Cooks, and Stills ahead of him on the depth chart, the veteran should only be roster depth for fantasy.
The entire Texans receiver situation is a mess right now, but as the season progresses, owners should be able to tell which wideout is getting more targets. However, when drafting, players from this unit should not be considered dependable and solid fantasy options—just yet.
Tight End
The Texans return two potentially fantasy-relevant tight ends in Darren Fells and Jordan Akins. None are megastar names, but both provided very modest fantasy value last season. Fells finished 13th among fantasy TEs and Akins finished 26th.
Technically, it was Akins that finished with most of the better numbers, but Fells who offered better fantasy value in 2019. Nevertheless, their stats were very much similar. Akins had 36 receptions, 55/534 targets (10.3%), 418 yards, 11.6 yards per catch, and two touchdowns. He averaged 26.1 yards per game.
Meanwhile, Fells had 34 receptions, 48/534 targets (9%), 341 yards, 10 yards per catch, and seven touchdowns. He averaged 21.3 yards per game. The difference was touchdowns, as Fells offered better red zone value.
Neither can be relied on for consistent weekly production because of their generally small role on this offense; however, the subtraction of Hopkins could change that. Because Fells performed better in fantasy last season (solely because of his touchdowns), he is the safer option to choose. Nevertheless, both Akins and Fells should only be considered backup tight ends in redraft leagues unless one of them breaks out and there is a reason to elevate their status.
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