RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Maybe it's stating the obvious, but as we transition from the ZOZO Championship in Japan - a tournament that Hideki Matsuyama won in what was a cool defense of his home turf - to the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in, well, Bermuda...it comes to mind that not all golf tournaments are created equal. And that's ok. Last week's ZOZO was the weakest field we'd seen to this point in golf's fall season and this week's Bermuda entry list makes the ZOZO look like the freakin' Masters in comparison. And that's ok.
For those of you that would rather turn your focus to playoff baseball or college football or the NFL or helping your kid make a Halloween costume...I get it. For those of you that are actually pumped for the Bermuda Championship...I got you.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Just in case you didn't catch the drift in the intro - or just downright skipped over it - this week's Butterfield Bermuda Championship field is...how shall I say this...interesting. The event is "headlined" by Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Reed, and rookie sensation Mito Pereira. After that, things go downhill in a hurry.
The Bermuda Championship was an alternate-field event in its inaugural edition back in 2019 but is now a stand-alone tournament on the fall schedule. It offers a chance for up-and-comers and veteran journeymen to keep the dream alive by securing their PGA Tour cards for a couple of years with a win, not to mention a guaranteed trip to the 2022 Masters. We've seen reclamation project, Brendon Todd, and 90's throwback, Brian Gay, capture the first two editions of the event. What do they have in common? Both are uber-short off the tee. Not a huge surprise on a 6,800-ish yard Port Royal layout that is the second-shortest golf course that is in regular rotation on the PGA Tour schedule. What does this mean for DFS purposes? It means that we can rule no one in the field out this week. Yay.
In addition to an ultra-short layout that gives every player in the field a legitimate chance to compete, we must also consider the often blustery wind conditions. Brian Gay captured last year's crown in weekend conditions that saw gusts of up to 20-25 mph. This is yet another variable that makes this a difficult tournament to predict. For the purposes of this article, we do have a couple of years worth of course history to work with - though I have to let you know that's a tiny sample size. Basically, if you are dipping your toe in the PGA DFS waters this week, be prepared to embrace some volatility!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Port Royal Golf Course
Par 71 - 6,828 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Robert Trent Jones
At just over 6,800 yards, Port Royal is one of the shortest golf courses that we regularly see on the PGA Tour. As a result, we've seen a pair of "short knockers" in Brendon Todd & Brian Gay take down the first two editions of the Bermuda Championship. It's not that long hitters can't play well here (Wyndham Clark lost in a playoff to Gay last year), it's the fact that this golf course brings the entire field into play that makes it tough for DFS purposes. Port Royal offers unique sightlines and demands accuracy off the tee. There's no rough to speak of, but players need to be in the proper position off the tee in order to attack greens on their approach shots. As if this course wasn't already unique enough due to its length, we must also consider the fact that it is located on the Atlantic coastline of Bermuda and wind is often an obstacle as a result. Players saw gusts of 20-25 mph over the weekend in last year's edition and it showed in the scoring, as Brian Gay won at 15-under par, compared to Brendon Todd's winning total of 24-under in 2019.
It all adds up to a focus on players that are accurate off the tee, sharp iron players, and great Bermuda grass putters. I'll also lean towards those that have some course experience under their belts, have historically performed well on short layouts, and have a history of being good wind players.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Bermuda Championship Winners
- Brian Gay (-15)
- Brendon Todd (-24)
The Horse
Seamus Power
Notable Course History: T37 (2021 Season), T31 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $10,200 FanDuel Price: $11,500
With apologies to my man Spencer Aguiar, who has been touting Seamus Power for the better part of a year, I have to borrow his guy this week. Listen, we know this field is weak, but I can't tell you guys just how difficult it was to pinpoint a player that had both two years' worth of Bermuda experience and some semblance of recent form. The Irishman fits the bill better than any other player this week.
Power has two Bermuda starts under his belt, posting solid, if unspectacular results in each. However, it's fair to argue that he heads to this year's edition a much-improved player. The 34-year-old entered last season being forced to travel the Monday qualifier circuit in hopes of getting starts but made the most of his opportunities. Power recorded a top-10 finish in May's Bryon Nelson which kickstarted a massive run that included top-25s at the Palmetto and Travelers Championships, consecutive top-10s in the Rocket Mortgage, and John Deere Classic and culminated with a victory in the Barbasol Classic in July. He's had mixed results in his two starts of the 2021-22 season, missing the cut in a knock-the-rust-off outing at the Sanderson, before notching a rock-solid T21 at the Shriners on the strength of gaining 6.5 strokes on Approach. That success with the irons was a hallmark of Power's 2021 surge, as he gained strokes on Approach in six consecutive starts in the lead-up to his win at Barbasol. His precision at the Shriners in his most recent start would indicate that the irons are once again firing, a nice sign as he heads to Bermuda.
The Ponies
Scott Stallings
Notable Course History: T26 ('21), T18 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $8,600 FanDuel Price: $9,900
Scott Stallings kicks off a murderer's row of decent-but-gross-players with good Bermuda course history that are priced in the $8k's on DraftKings this week. The Good: Stallings has been solid in two trips to Port Royal and also popped for a T6 last month at the Fortinet Championship. The Bad: He's missed the cut in his two starts since the Fortinet and has lost strokes on Approach in five of his last six. I told you this field was dicey. Despite his maddening inconsistency, I am willing to give Stallings a look in GPPs this week because when his game is clicking, it tends to be really clicking, as he logged a top-five and two top-10s over the 2020-21 season. If we really want to stretch things, we could also draw a line from Port Royal to Pebble Beach, a very short, coastal layout on which Stallings has performed extremely well throughout his career. Yeah...I know it's thin, but it's that kinda week.
Denny McCarthy
Notable Course History: T4 ('21), T15 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $8,500 FanDuel Price: $10,100
To a certain extent, it's fair to label the Bermuda Championship a putting contest, which probably explains why Denny McCarthy has had so much success in this event. D-Mac has gone T4-T15 in two previous trips to Port Royal, a golf course that doesn't demand distance or tremendous ball striking and places a premium on Bermuda putting. He's honestly horrible by every statistical metric from T2G but is legitimately a top-five putter on the PGA Tour. McCarthy grades out third in this field in SG: Putting on Bermuda grass greens over the last 50 rounds and routinely finishes near the top of the Tour in SG: Putting every season. So, to put it in simple terms, we're basically betting on Denny making more putts than anyone else this week, a proposition that is volatile by nature, but that has produced good results in Bermuda to this point.
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Ryan Armour
Notable Course History: T8 ('21), T8 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $8,100 FanDuel Price: $9,700
Ryan Armour at Port Royal is like Jordan Spieth at Augusta National. Ok, maybe that's taking it a bit too far, but Armour has proven to be bulletproof in his two previous trips to Bermuda, posting a tidy pair of T8s. He undoubtedly fits the Brendon Todd & Brian Gay mold, as he's extremely short off the tee, but grades out second in this week's field in Fairways Gained over the last 50 rounds. The veteran also happens to be an excellent Bermuda grass putter and solid iron player. Sound familiar?
Russell Knox
Notable Course History: T16 ('21), T11 ('20)
DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $9,800
Russell Knox is one of those guys that I never seem to get right, as he seems to put forth his best results when he's not in my lineup. I'm not sure what that means for his prospects this week, as I will be slotting Knox into several of my rosters on this slate. Knox has been tremendous in his two Bermuda starts and this Port Royal layout is a terrific fit for his game...short and coastal. He's thrived not only at Port Royal, but at similar courses such as Harbour Town and Pebble Beach. He's battled a balky putter recently (big shock), though his game has been in sharp form from T2G, as he's gained strokes on Approach in seven of his last eight starts. He'll need to make a few putts, but I really like the form, fit, and experience that Knox brings to the table this week.
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