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Brenton Kemp's top NHL betting picks and best bets for today's NHL games on 2/7/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various hockey bets.
Nearly every team in the NHL has returned from their respective bye weeks as well as the All-Star game. As a result, the playoff races are about to shift into another gear with every night serving as vital to a club's postseason aspirations. We have a three-game schedule on this Wednesday night with playoff implications throughout.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the NHL games on Wednesday, February 7. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some hockey games. Follow me on Twitter/X @BKemp17.
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Today's NHL Betting Picks - Dallas Stars vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: TOR (-130)
The Toronto Maple Leafs have found themselves closer to the playoff bubble than the top of the Atlantic Division, dropping a heartbreaking 3-2 contest to the New York Islanders out of the All-Star break on Monday night.
The loss dropped the Leafs to just 11-10-2 on home ice this season. Indeed, the often sleepy Scotiabank Arena in downtown Toronto hasn't been a difficult environment for opponents this season.
While the Maple Leafs have struggled to get scoring from their bottom-six players, they still sit ninth in overall offense, eighth on the power play, and seventh in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at five-on-five (5v5) this season. The problem has been at the other end of the ice.
After a few seasons of improved defensive play, the Leafs have struggled on the back end this season. They rank 21st in overall defense, 23rd on the penalty kill, and 24th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. Their goaltending has been right in the middle of the pack at 5v5.
As for the Stars, they are coming off a 2-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday night, putting them in a back-to-back scenario for Wednesday's contest in Toronto. Jake Oettinger was the hero as the Sabres once held a 14-2 shot advantage and ended up out-shooting the Stars by a hefty 48-30 count.
Keeping the opponent's offense to a minimum is nothing new for this team. In fact, while they sit 13th in overall defense, they also rank first in xGA/60 t 5v5 and eighth on the penalty kill. Although he was stout on Tuesday, Oettinger has led the Stars to roughly league-average goaltending at 5v5 this season.
It will likely be Scott Wedgewood between the pipes on Wednesday and he too has taken a step back this season, After posting a 2.72 goals-against average (GAA) and .915 save percentage (Sv%) across 21 outings last season, the 31-year-old owns a mild 2.98 GAA and .899 Sv% in 22 appearances this time around.
While the Stars are playing their second game in as many nights, there was minimal travel involved in this case. At the same time, this Maple Leafs team has been far too inconsistent this season at home to be a favorite against a Stars team that sits first in the Central Division.
The value here is on the road team to rattle off their fifth straight win on Wednesday.
Pick: Stars moneyline (+110, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's NHL Betting Picks - Minnesota Wild vs. Chicago Blackhawks
O/U: 5.5 | Moneyline: MIN (-218)
There are going to be plenty of desperate hockey teams from here on out, one of which is the Minnesota Wild as they begin their second half against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks.
The Wild certainly have their work cut out for them as they sit seven points back of St. Louis for the second and final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference with four teams sitting between them and the Blues in that race.
While they have been around league average in overall offense and on the power play, the Wild also sit 31st, ahead of only tonight's opponent, in xGF/60 at 5v5. It appears they have scored far more at even strength than they have deserved to this point.
The opposite is true defensively. The Wild rank 25th in overall defense yet sit fourth in xGA/60 at 5v5. Two things have hindered their overall defense this season: a 30th-ranked penalty kill and a 23rd-ranked .907 Sv% at 5v5 this season. Their goaltending has taken a major step back this season.
The Blackhawks are not only statistically a bottom-two team in just about every offense and defensive category you can find but they have also been ravaged by injuries.
We know phenom Connor Bedard remains out with a broken jaw but key regulars such as Taylor Hall, Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Beauvillier, and defenseman Connor Murphy are all sidelined at the moment. In a small silver lining, they will get veteran forward Tyler Johnson back tonight for the first time since Dec. 31.
In short, there's no excuse for a Wild team in serious need of two points against a vulnerable opponent not to take care of business tonight. It's a steep moneyline price, so let's grab them at a more reasonable price to win this one in regulation time.
Pick: Wild first 60 minutes moneyline (-140, DraftKings sportsbook)
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