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We made it, folks! It's Friday and we have a rock-solid six-game NHL schedule on tap with plenty of value on the board! Time to get our weekend started on the right note.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the NHL games on Friday, November 10, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some hockey games. Follow me on Twitter @BKemp17.
Today's NHL Betting Picks - Minnesota Wild vs. Buffalo Sabres
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: BUF (-120)
The Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres get together tonight in western New York while the home side looks to take advantage of a Wild club playing their second game in as many nights after taking a 4-1 loss Thursday on Broadway against the Rangers.
The loss dropped Minnesota to just 5-6-2 on the season but Thursday's effort was particularly concerning. The Rangers were without their top two netminders Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick but Louis Domingue managed to turn aside 25 of the 26 shots he faced in the victory. Superstar Kirill Kaprizov was once again a non-factor while head coach Dean Evason has been forced to put his lines in a blender in order to generate some more offense.
The Wild sit in a share of 10th in overall offense but also rank 26th in expected goals for per 60 minutes of five-on-five action and 28th in high-danger chances for/60 at 5v5. Their 14.9% clip on the power play sits 24th league-wide. Offensive regression looks imminent and it showed on Thursday.
As for the Sabres, they have managed to get their offense on track of late. They have scored two goals or fewer in two of their last three but have also averaged 4.67 goals per game over their last six after averaging just 2.17 goals per game through their first six. The power play remains a work in progress as they sit 27th with a 12.8% clip on the man advantage but at least the penalty kill has helped mitigate their special-teams effect, sitting in a share of fourth at 88%.
Filip Gustavsson is getting the nod in goal for the Wild and he has been among the worst goaltenders in the game to begin the season. The Swede owns an ugly 4.89 goals-against average and an .871 save percentage in seven games, winning just two of them. His -7.49 goals saved above average ranks 63rd of 66 goaltenders, as per Hockey Reference. Buffalo has yet to announce a starter for Friday's contest.
At the end of the day, this is a scuffling Wild club on a back-to-back with a scuffling goaltender between the pipes. The Sabres have no excuse but to come out and take advantage with a moneyline victory at a solid price.
Pick: Sabres moneyline (-120, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's NHL Betting Picks - Philadelphia Flyers vs. Anaheim Ducks
O/U: 6 | Moneyline: ANA (-110)
The Philadelphia Flyers continue their four-game road trip through California before finishing in Carolina when they pay a visit to the upstart Anaheim Ducks Friday night.
The Ducks are off to a hot start at 7-5-0 on the season but were dealt a humbling 2-0 shutout loss at the hands of the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins their last time out. It's awfully difficult to envision their season continuing to largely bode well considering what the underlying metrics are telling us.
The club sits 17th in overall offense and eighth in overall defense but they also rank 27th in both expected goals for/60 at 5v5 and expected goals against/60 at 5v5. An unsustainable .940 save percentage at 5v5 action has led to supreme defensive surface numbers but don't be surprised to see the Ducks slip at both ends of the ice moving forward.
The Flyers were off to a nice start to their season before dropping seven of their last nine and five of their last six contests. However, unlike Anaheim, their advanced numbers are rather solid.
The Flyers sit 21st in overall offense and 15th in overall defense but they also sit 11th in expected goals for/60 at 5v5 and fifth in expected goals against/60 at 5v5 on the season. Special teams have been their biggest issue as the club sits 31st with an 8.9% mark on the power play and a decent 14th with a 79.5% clip on the penalty kill.
Most important for the Flyers in this one is the expected return of netminder Carter Hart after he missed time with a back injury. The 25-year-old was solid out of the gate, turning in a 2.52 GAA and .913 Sv% in eight games, going 4-3-0 in that time. His 1.99 goals saved above average ranks 18th of those 66 qualified netminders.
After rattling off six straight wins before being cooled off by the Penguins, it looks like the Ducks could be in for some adversity moving forward. They are scoring above their heads and their defense has been especially misleading if you believe in the underlying metrics.
Let's go with the visiting Flyers to bounce back from a 2-1 loss to the lowly Sharks to begin their road trip.
Pick: Flyers moneyline (-110, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, Rotoballers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
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