RADIO
Welcome back to another edition of NBA Best Bets! It's Sunday and we have a lot more games than usual today (12) as the NBA season officially enters it's final week of the regular season. Friday night was pretty decent for me and hopefully, those of you who tailed some picks from the article as we went 3-0 on totals/spreads and 4-3 on prop bets. Even with a bunch of games, it was hard for me to find bets that I really felt confident in today, but I do have a few and will try to add some player props later if at all possible.
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Sunday, April 3, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 178-156-2
- Against the Spread 80-70-2
- Over/Under 35-43
- Player Props 63-43
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks
Miami Heat (+4) @ Toronto Raptors (214.5 total)
The Heat handled the Bulls last night and seem to be rounding back into form right in time for the playoffs as that's the second quality win they've picked up in a row having just beat Boston earlier this week.
While the Raptors are in solid recent form themselves, I still have Miami rated as the better overall team. And the only equalizer here is that Toronto is at home. That makes this game a pick 'em on my sheet and you know what to do with those games by now right? Bet on the underdog! Miami is on a back-to-back but that doesn't ding them enough to take me off them.
The Raptors lead the season series 2-1, but both of their wins were by four exactly four points and one went in overtime. Take the points if you want them, I'll likely have Miami with the points and straight up.
The Pick: Miami +4 (-110 DK) and Miami ML (+150 DK)
Denver Nuggets (-3) @ Los Angeles Lakers (230.5 total)
This is a really interesting game from the Lakers' perspective. LeBron is questionable, but I am assuming he plays considering the Lakers need to pretty much win out this week in order to sneak into the play-in tournament. L.A has a real challenge there, however, as they're facing Denver today and then again next Sunday and also have Phoenix and Golden State on the remaining schedule, too.
Maybe the Lakers pull this one out, but I doubt it. Either way, the Nuggets should put some points on this really poor Laker defense and if L.A. does win today it will likely be in a high-scoring affair. I have this total well over the 230.5 mark but I'm taking a specific angle here and betting the Denver team total instead of the game total. The chances of the Lakers not holding up their end of the scoring are greater than Denver in my opinion. L.A. is allowing 120+ points per game over their last ten games and Denver is a team that can score efficiently in the half-court. Look for the MVP Nikola Jokic to have a big day and the Nuggets to cruise over their team total of 116.5.
The Pick: Nuggets team total OVER 116.5 points (-115 DK)
Phoenix Suns (-14.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (223 total)
The Suns are resting some players today against the tanking Thunder. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder are all being held out of this one and I'd expect the Suns to keep rotating starters in and out of the lineup down the stretch as they are well ahead of the pack in the West and comfortably locked into the top seed for the playoffs.
So what's the angle here are we really betting on double-digit favorites, Dan? Or do we take the Thunder with all those points since they're technically the second-best team ATS this year despite being terrible? If you want some spread action, yes I prefer the OKC side there, but that's not my angle.
I'm on the over here. The Thunder have been a sieve on defense since they shut down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. They've given up 119 points per game over their last ten and are facing one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Sure they don't have two of their top scorers, but Chris Paul makes everyone around him better and Phoenix is incredibly deep. Their role players will likely have big games here and if this game does get out of hand at any point, those situations usually trend towards the over (more carefree play) not the under. The data supports the over here more than any other game on the slate and while I don't always trust those numbers this is one spot where it makes a ton of sense.
The Pick: OVER 223 (-110 FD)
Portland Trail Blazers (-14.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (230.5 total)
I will keep this one simple. The Spurs have absolutely owned the Blazers this year and have beaten them handily twice in the last month, posting 130 or more points in each of those wins. The Blazers are the ultimate tank job this season as they shut down Lillard, traded McCollum, and then eventually shut down Josh Hart, Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic and any other good player they have on their roster. They're quite literally the worst team in the NBA right now, period.
The Spurs even rested Dejounte Murray on Friday night and the rest of the team went out and dropped 230 on this B-league Portland team. Murray's status is up in the air here, but my pick is not contingent on him playing.
The Spurs have to keep winning to get into the play-in tourney and luckily they have another easy win here. I look for them to continue their high-scoring ways and so I'm on their team total here rather than the spread because I simply don't really ever lay that many points - even in this scenario. That's a lot of points, I know, but Portland has allowed an average of 125 points per game to opponents over their last ten and we've seen the Spurs do it to them twice now.
The Pick: Spurs team total OVER 123.5 (-110 DK)
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
Some props I like in the EARLY games...I'm not sure I will be able to post anything for late games.
Al Horford over 22.5 PRA (-115 DK) - Horford went well over his total last time against Indiana and Washington is another great matchup for centers. Hopefully, Washington can hang with Boston and we get 30 minutes from Horford again.
Dorian Finney-Smith over 2.5 3PM (+130) - Let's get crazy here with some really nice odds. DFS plays small-ball power forward for Dallas and that just happens to where Milwaukee is vulnerable. They allow the most 3PM to the PF position of any team in the NBA and guys like Kevin Love have smashed in this spot before. DFS is a solid shooter from deep at 39% but usually doesn't take a large volume of shots. He did hit six against Cleveland the other night, though, and Dallas will need him to make those open looks to hang with the Bucks. I like Bullock over 2.5 (-110) at lesser odds, too, and he shoots almost exclusively three-pointers.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: Knicks/Warriors ML Parlay (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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