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We are down to just four teams left going into Friday's final play-in games. The Toronto Raptors were eliminated by Chicago last night and so were the New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams were favored going into their matchups, too. So can either 10-seed pull off another upset and win a second game to sneak into the postseason?
I am going to give you a pick for both of these games. It might be against the spread, or a total, depending on which angle I like the best. And get ready for my full breakdowns of the first-round matchups in each conference coming soon!
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA play-in games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, April 14th.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Postseason Record: 2-3
- Against the Spread: 2-0
- Game/Team Totals: 0-2
- Moneyline Parlay: 0-1
- Teasers: 0-0
NBA Betting Picks: Play-In Games
Chicago Bulls (+5.5) @ Miami Heat (209 total)
Season Series: Chicago leads 3-0
The Miami Heat could be in big trouble. I am sure they're sweating a bit after dropping the 7-8 game to Atlanta and if they lose this game and miss the playoffs after being the Eastern Conference runner-up last season, then this year will go down as a massive failure for this team.
They trailed Atlanta the entire game and for most of the first half by double-digits. They made a run late to close the gap, but this team isn't built to play from behind and they simply didn't have enough offense to come all the way back.
Now they face a Chicago team that has beaten them three times this season and could have their confidence back after storming back last night from a double-digit deficit against Toronto. I was down on the Bulls at halftime last night, but they played with a major sense of urgency in the second half and got some big-time shot-making from Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan down the stretch.
A 39-piece in the comeback W 🥶
Have a night, Zach LaVine.#ATTPlayIn pic.twitter.com/LJ4ePRBnVg
— NBA (@NBA) April 13, 2023
Both of these teams don't mind playing slow and battling it out in the half-court, hence the 209 total - one of the lowest totals I have seen so far this season. But I won't touch that total in this game. Instead, I am going to back the underdogs again. I think 5.5 points is too many to spot the Bulls and that they can win this game outright. Miami is going to have play their best game of the season to stave off elimination and they might pull it out, but I think Chicago will give them everything they have and then some.
I like the Bulls to cover (and possibly win), so let's ride the spread here with the visitors and toss a quarter unit on their money line, too.
The Pick: Bulls +5.5 (-110), 1.1 units to win 1 unit, Bulls ML (+185), .25 unit to win .51 units
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Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (228 total)
Season Series: Minnesota leads 3-1
Rudy Gobert should return for the T-Wolves in this one and give them a major size advantage over an OKC team that plays pretty small for much of the game. Jaylin Williams is their starting center and is just 6'9" and will have to contend with the dual 7-footers in KAT and Gobert inside.
But size isn't everything (or at least I have been told) and I'm not counting out the Thunder just based on one matchup alone. The question for me is this - did OKC play their best game against New Orleans and do they have enough left in the tank to take down an even better Minnesota team?
I think it's likely the end of the road for the Thunder and even if they lose this game and head back to the lottery, this season has to be viewed as an overwhelming success for their franchise when you consider how they compared to the last several seasons.
Everything is on the line for Minnesota here as they traded away major assets to get Rudy Gobert and then did a big midseason trade to dump D'Angelo Russell and bring in a veteran in Mike Conley to try to right the ship. Their fans and their owners were expecting a playoff berth this year and I even had them pegged as a top 4-5 team in the conference in the preseason.
Anthony Edwards had a terrible game against the Lakers, but I don't see that happening again. And I do think that KAT and Gobert will give OKC some problems inside. I am not confident enough in the Wolves to lay 5.5 points (though the spread is moving in their direction) but I do think they'll win.
My angle here is on the total. Despite going 0-2 on totals in the first four games, I am going to give it another shot here. These teams went under the current total of 228 in three of four matchups this year with the lone outlier being a 135-128 OKC win back in December. Gobert played just 9 minutes in that game due to foul trouble and of course, KAT was out as he missed most of the season.
I can't see OKC having the same success at the rim in this game as they did against the Thunder and I wouldn't count on three long balls from Josh Giddey and four from Lu Dort either. I think the Wolves' defense smothers them a bit and Minnesota wins a lower-scoring game here. I am going with the under at 228 and hoping we get an overall slower pace of play as each team values each possession more in an elimination game.
The Pick: UNDER 228 points (-110), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Underdog Teaser (buying 4.5 points): Bulls +10, Thunder +10 = (-120 DK)
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