RADIO
After a relatively small five-game slate Tuesday night, we are back with a nine-game slate tonight. The featured game of the night will be LeBron James's Los Angeles Lakers traveling to San Antonio to take on Victor Wembanyama.
Continuing with the theme this season, I'll be targeting a few games and taking my best swing. I've hit a nice stretch lately, going 7-2 in my last nine games. I was not a fan of any money line parlays or teasers on tonight's board.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread game totals for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, December 13th. Follow me on Twitter/X @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Indiana Pacers (+6.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (259.5 total)
Back on December 7, the Pacers beat the Bucks 128-119 in the IST semi-final. This was also the second time the Pacers beat the Bucks this season. On November 9, Indiana was able to hold off Giannis Antetokounmpo's 54 points and defend home court with a 126-124 victory. Damian Lillard did not play in their first matchup.
I like the Bucks in the first quarter here.
Indiana comes into this game off of a win against the Pistons on Monday. The Pacers played the Bucks on Thursday, the Lakers on Saturday, and the Pistons on Monday. This will be their fourth game in six days, and there could be some tired legs.
Milwaukee comes into this game off of an overtime win over the Chicago Bulls. Giannis, Lillard, and Brook Lopez all played 40 minutes, but that's not terrible with the game going an extra five minutes.
At home, the Bucks have been a great first-quarter team. They are one of ten teams to average at least 30 points and one of seven teams to shoot better than 51 percent on field goals. From deep, they are a top-seven shooting team, hitting 42.2 percent on 8.4 attempts.
On the road, Indiana has averaged the most points in the first quarter at 30.9. They also shoot the best field goal percentage at 52.1 percent. It is still slightly fewer points than they average at home (31.9). Three-point shooting sees a significant drop for the Pacers away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. At home, Indiana hits 4.5 threes in the first quarter and shoots at 42.9 percent. On the road, that number falls to 2.9 and 30.6 percent.
According to EV Analytics, the Bucks are only 5-7-1 ATS at home in first quarters this season. The Pacers are even worse and come into this game with a 2-7-1 record ATS on the road in the first quarter.
I'm also factoring in that Giannis is in the top seven in first-quarter scoring this season. His counterpart, Damian Lillard, has been averaging 10.7 minutes in the first quarter. Milwaukee did narrowly win the first quarter 29-27 in their matchup in Vegas. I think they cover the spread here and come out on top in the opening 12 minutes.
The Pick: Bucks First Quarter -2.5 (-108 FanDuel)
Atlanta Hawks (+2) @ Toronto Raptors (239.5 total)
I'm staying away from a full-game bet and just targeting the first half. According to EV Analytics, the Raptors are 8-3 straight up at home in the first half this season. This record likely isn't just a hot start; they went 29-13 last season. There's also a noticeable difference in their home/away splits, which makes it easier to point out why I like the play.
Toronto averages 56.9 points at home, compared to 51.0 on the road. They hit 48.1 percent of their field goals at home and 44.9 percent on the road. From deep, the Raptors hit 5.9 threes on 36.2 percent shooting in Scotiabank Arena. Away from the comfort of their home, they are hitting 5.2 threes on only 29.2 percent shooting. It is no surprise they shoot better from the line, pick up more assists, and turn it over less at home.
Atlanta scores a ton of points, but they also shoot it worse on the road than at home. The Hawks are giving up 62.0 points in the opening 24 minutes of games this season. Toronto gives up 56.0 points. The Raptors are also a top-five defense in preventing three-point makes, which is a big strength for Atlanta.
I'll take the Raps at home; I like this matchup for them.
The Pick: Raptors First Half ML (-120 Caesars)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Memphis Grizzlies (+7) @ Houston Rockets (214.5 total)
The Houston Rockets are holding opponents to 97.3 points at the Toyota Center this season. Opponents are only shooting 41.3 percent on field goals, 28.6 percent from three, and they are making less than 10 threes a game.
On offense, both of these teams are near the bottom of the league in scoring and field goal percentage. They are in the top 15 for threes made per game, but neither are particularly dynamic from deep. Memphis is in the top 12 in threes made per game but in the bottom three in three-point percentage. If the Rockets play to their defensive capabilities, the Grizzlies shouldn't hit too many shots from deep.
I also like that neither of these teams averages a lot of free throws. The Grizzlies have been pretty good on defense this season. They are in the top 12 in defensive rating and points allowed, and those numbers actually improve on the road. Memphis is allowing the fifth-fewest field goal attempts. The Rockets are a bottom-six team in field goal attempts. This would put pressure on Houston to shoot well from the floor, and the numbers show they aren't good at that.
Houston's average win margin at home is +12.7. That number could be important because if they are winning by a nice margin late, it should avoid the cat-and-mouse foul game that just adds points to the board. The Rockets and Grizzlies are both in the bottom 12 in pace as well. According to Action Network, unders are 8-2 this season in Houston.
The Pick: Under 214.5 (-110 BetMGM)
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