Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/11/23)

December 11, 2023

Josh Wiesel's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/11/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

After a Sunday of zero games, we are back with a full NBA slate Monday night. There are 13 games and 26 teams in action tonight across the association. Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers for winning the inaugural In-Season Tournament!

Continuing with the theme this season, I'll be targeting a few games and taking my best swing. On Friday night, I went 2-1 in my three single-game picks.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, December 11. Follow me on Twitter/X @Jwiesel13.

NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML

Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (222.5)

The Pelicans come into this game off an embarrassing semi-final In-Season Tournament loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. New Orleans looked lifeless and just got their teeth kicked in by LeBron James. Now, the Pelicans return home, where they have played well this season.

In Smoothie King Center, the Pelicans are 8-4. They are also scoring 117.4 points (12th) and shooting 49.5 percent on field goal attempts (fifth). Their three-point shooting leaves something to be desired, but they go up against a Timberwolves team that is very good at defending the three. I'd be more concerned if the Pelicans loved to light it up from deep.

In their last 10 games, New Orleans has allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. Opponents are also shooting the 10th-worst percentage on threes and the 12th-worst on field goals.

Minnesota is excellent defensively, but they see drop-offs on the road vs. at home. At home, Minnesota is first in defensive rating. They also allow the second-fewest points and are first in opponent field goal percentage. On the road, their defensive rating drops to 12th, and they fall to a tie for seventh in points allowed. The points allowed difference is 99.5 vs. 111.5.

Anthony Edwards is iffy for this game, but I also don't love the matchup for him with all the forwards New Orleans can throw at him.

I would like to think the Pelicans will come out a little more inspired than they did Thursday night.

The Pick: Pelicans -2.5 (-115 BetMGM)

Toronto Raptors (+4.5) @ New York Knicks (217.5 total)

The last time these teams played on December 1, the Knicks went into Toronto and won 119-106.

I'm not a fan of anything in this game long-term, so my play is in the first half.

That December 1 game saw the Knicks jump out to a 34-26 first quarter lead. Toronto battled back to win the second quarter 31-23, and the score was tied at 57 going into halftime.

Friday night, Jalen Brunson stepped on Payton Pritchard's foot late in their loss to the Celtics. Brunson was in noticeable pain, but I think he will give it a go in this one. Knowing how important Brunson is to the Knicks' success, that scares me. Jalen is a gamer, so he will likely give it a go against a Raptors team that is top-12 in the fewest points allowed in the first half.

The Knicks have been great on defense in the first half at home, allowing the second-fewest points per game. With Brunson less than 100 percent, the Knicks could struggle to get things going.

These two aren't far off of each other in first-half scoring. The Raptors also have a slightly better first-half true shooting percentage.

According to EV Analytics, the Knicks are 3-6 ATS at home in the first half this season. Toronto is 3-7 ATS on the road in the first half.

I'll just take the points here.

The Pick: Raptors First Half +2.5 (-105 PointsBet)

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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals

Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.5) @ Orlando Magic (225 total)

These two teams played in Cleveland last Wednesday, with the Cavs winning 121-111.

The Cavs got off to a really hot start and led 37-20 at the end of the first quarter. They shot 7/10 from three and 7/14 from inside the arc. Orlando struggled, going 0/5 from three and 5/10 inside the three-point line.

I like the first quarter under here and am banking on the Cavs not going crazy from the floor again.

At home this season, Cleveland has scored 30.2 points in the first quarter and hit 51.6 percent of their field goals. On the road, those numbers drop to 27.0 and 47.3 percent. From three, they only shoot 33.8 percent on 7.4 attempts.

Orlando has been a very good home first quarter team. They are 10-2 straight up, but they also average 29.7 points and shoot 51.9 percent on field goal attempts. On three-pointers, the Magic hit 50.7 percent on 5.8 attempts.

Those numbers are a bit scary to go against with a first quarter under, but here's also why I still like the play.

In terms of defense, the Magic are only tied for 24th in opponent field goal percentage. Opponents are shooting 49.5 percent against them, but Orlando allows the fewest field goal attempts. Cleveland is tied for 18th in first quarter field goal attempts on the road. This will put a lot of pressure on them to make shots and make the most of their possessions. Orlando also allows the second-fewest three-point attempts and is stout on the boards. They give up 27.4 points, which is tied for the seventh-best in the league.

Cleveland has allowed 29.2 points in the opening 12 minutes of games. They are tied for 14th in opponent field goal attempts and just outside the top 15 in opponent field goal percentage. The Cavs have a top-10 first-quarter defense when it comes to limiting opponent three-point makes and percentage.

The Pick: Magic/Cavaliers First Quarter Under 58.5 points (-115 DK)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite ML Parlay: MIL + NO (-102 FD)

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