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Today's Free MLB prop betting picks for Sunday, April 16, 2023. Use Dan's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a loaded pitching slate today with a lot of teams rolling out their aces and some awesome pitching matchups. That means I have more strikeout props overall than hitter props but I wanted to give you three of my favorite for each today.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, April 16, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zac Gallen OVER 5.5 strikeouts vs. MIA (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have been attacking Miami with good strikeout pitchers all season, so we aren't about to stop today. Gallen is coming off his best start of the year against the Brewers when he whiffed 11 over 7 innings. He finally looked like the Gallen we know and love after getting hit around a bit in his first few outings.
This matchup is elite for a guy like Gallen as the Marlins are striking out around 26% of the time and not walking much (nor does Gallen walk many hitters). He also likes to pitch deep into games, having gone 6 and 7 innings in his last two starts which extends his window for getting that 6th strikeout.
Julio Urias OVER 5.5 strikeouts vs. CHC (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm not sure any pitcher has looked as polished and consistent in their first three starts as Urias. He struck out 8 Giants last time out to move to 3-0 and now has 22 strikeouts and only two walks this season. He has 6+ in all three starts, too, so I'm not sure why Chicago would pose any more of a threat than any of his first three matchups (ARI, COL, SFG).
In fact, the Cubbies are whiffing at a 30% rate against lefties, which means my projection for Urias is for him to go well over 6 tonight. I'd ladder him up to 8 at least, if you are able to bet on alternate K props on a site like FanDuel.
Mitch Keller OVER 5.5 strikeouts vs. STL (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Keller is the riskiest of the three, but also gives us the best return on our dollar at even money. You have to buy into this being a new and improved Mitch Keller in order to get on board here, and I have already done that. While he only struck out hitters at around a 21% clip last year, he's been fantastic through three starts this season raising that rate to 29%. The Cardinals are a tough lineup, for sure, but Keller has the stuff to get there as long as he avoids the big inning. We saw his rotation mate Johan Oviedo get 8 Cardinals already in this series, and Keller has significantly better stuff.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Josh Bell OVER 1.5 TB (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The sleeping giant has awoken! Bell is still hitting just .167 to start the season but has gone 4-8 at the plate in this series against the Nationals with three doubles and his first home run of the year. Perhaps the Washington pitching was just what the doctor ordered to get Bell out of an early-season slump or he really has some animosity toward his former team (if you like the revenge narrative angles).
Either way, I like Bell to keep the power surge going against Patrick Corbin today. As a switch hitter, Bell maintains his platoon advantage against any relievers who came after Corbin, too. And in his career, he's faced Corbin 15 times, drawing five walks with three hits with all three of those hits being home runs.
Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 TB (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Big Meat Pete has a dream matchup here against Oakland lefty JP Sears. Alonso is ripping the baseball to start the year with an absurd .591 ISO against LHP. Meanwhile, Sears leads all pitchers today with a 24% barrel rate and a 62% flyball rate. That sounds like a recipe for a HR (you can bet on that, too, at +425) to me. He left the yard again yesterday (off a RHP) for his 7th of the season already.
Alonso HR (7) pic.twitter.com/i3LlNLIs8u
— New York Mets Home Runs 🍎 (@JoshNike10) April 16, 2023
I love targeting lefties with Alonso, and Sears has been basically a two-pitch pitcher this year throwing a ton of fastballs and only a change-up as his second pitch.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 TB (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Schwarber has some of the lowest HR odds you'll see at +180, which means Vegas expects him to crush one off Luis Cessa today. Everything lines up well for him as he gets a very high-contact pitcher (Cessa strikes out less than 10% of hitters) in a great ballpark for hitters in Cincinnati. If you want a nice safe prop, this one has some juice attached to it but is one of the safest total base props on the board.
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