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Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks, this time during the week! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 6th, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 60-64-2, -17.63 units
- Sides: 31-33-1, -12.77 units
- Totals: 28-31-1, -6.56 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Phillies
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: PHI -245
MIA: Jesus Luzardo | PHI: Aaron Nola
We were able to finish up our weekend strong going 2-0 on two first-inning unders on Sunday. We'll be going head down into the new week with another first-inning under play in Philadelphia. The Marlins will be sending southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-6, 3.44 ERA) to the mound. Luzardo has been solid in the first inning over the course of the season, holding opponents scoreless in five of seven road starts as well as nine of 11 starts overall.
Now, the Phillies did hurt us in the first inning under plays over the weekend, but I feel "safer" tonight with them sending Aaron Nola to the mound. Nola's thrown a scoreless opening frame in 11 of 13 starts at Citizens' Bank Park as well as in 22 of 26 starts overall. This includes two starts against the Marlins this season, one at home and one in Miami, allowing a run in neither of them.
Offensively, the Marlins are the worst in the league in terms of scoring in the first inning. They've scored in just 12% of first innings on the road and in roughly 15% of first innings overall. On the other hand, the Phillies have scored in 35% of home games, but in just 28% of games overall. We're getting slight value here, as my model gives the under a true line of -161 while FanDuel has it at -150.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Athletics
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: OAK +190
ATL: Kyle Wright | OAK: Cole Irvin
I'll be heading out west to Oakland for our second play of the day. We won't be looking at a first inning under here, but rather a first-half play. I'll look to back the Braves behind Kyle Wright (17-5, 2.85 ERA) to the mound. Wright has pitched extremely well this season and despite his xFIP (3.26) showing potential regression, Wright should have no issue carving through an Athletics lineup that projects to a .370 wOBA + ISO and 22.83% hard-contact rate according to my model.
The Athletics will be sending lefty Cole Irvin (7-11, 3.35 ERA) to the mound. Irvin has been a bright spot in a pretty ugly season out in Oakland, and I can't see I'm anticipating him shining tonight. His xFIP shows signs of regression (4.20), and projects to a 4.24 xFIP tonight against a Braves lineup that has a projected 36.74% hard-contact rate and a .547 wOBA + ISO, both among the highest on the slate.
It's clear that the Braves have a strong advantage in this matchup, from the pitcher to the lineup. I do trust the Braves' bullpen against the Athletics late in the ballgame, I'd rather back them to win in the first five innings rather than take the run line. With that, I'll back the solid value we're getting on FanDuel Sportsbook at -130.
Pick: Braves F5 Money Line (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Enjoy your Labor Day!
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