MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/17/2025)

September 17, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/17/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Matt Olson, Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Kurtz, and Tyler O'Neill.

The start of the NFL season has indeed forced me to focus on baseball left, but if you think I'm not paying attention anymore, go check my X account and see how I did on strikeout props last night!

I have four home run props I am excited about today. Each of our hitters today has been vetted in a strict process where I consider platoon splits, weather, park factors, pitch mix matchups, and recent form.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, September 17, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/17/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, September 17:

• Tyler O'Neill, Baltimore Orioles
• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
• Nick Kurtz, Athletics
• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Tyler O'Neill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel)

We kick things off with some matinee action as the Orioles wrap up their series in Chicago against the White Sox at 2:10 pm EST. Chicago sends the veteran lefty Martin Perez to the mound today to face an Orioles lineup that has embraced the youth movement, but still is anchored by veterans Ryan Mountcastle and O'Neill from the right side of the plate.

O'Neill hasn't played too much this season due to injury, and he has struck out a lot (37%) against left-handers. However, he is also sporting a 25% barrel rate against lefties this season and crushed them last year with a .750 SLG and 27.5% barrel rate, resulting in 16 home runs.

We don't have to worry about the strikeout too much today since Perez pitches to contact quite a bit. The crafty Perez has been great against lefties, but against RHH, he has a 17.1% barrel% and 46% HH%.

Believe it or not, O'Neill has never faced Perez head-to-head, but he matches up quite well against Perez's cutter and changeup using this season and last season's pitch mix data (since O'Neill has a rather limited number of at-bats against lefties this season).

Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 FanDuel)

For my next selection, I am rolling with a hitter who has been extremely hot lately and who has treated me quite well this month when I have picked him to hit a home run. That's right, Olson is one of the hottest home run hitters in baseball right now, slugging four long balls in his last five games.

Matt Olson has now homered in 4 straight games for the second time in his career! 💪 pic.twitter.com/jg0lY9pZIy

— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2025

Olson's opponent on the mound today is righty Brad Lord, who has turned in a pretty decent season for the Nationals this year. However, Lord has seen his home runs allowed tick up lately as he's given up seven home runs in the last eight games.

We always want to target Lord with lefties, as he has some very wide splits this year. He's allowed lefties to hit .275 with a .493 SLG, .217 ISO, and a 13.2% barrel rate.

The best part of this matchup is that Lord's arsenal to lefties is quite predictable, as he throws his four-seam fastball 55% of the time and his changeup another 22% of the time. Olson has been smashing fastballs this season to the tune of a .475 SLG and .213 ISO, and he's been locked in at the plate recently.

I love the odds we are getting here with Olson returning 4x our investment tonight if he keeps his hot streak going.

Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 FanDuel)

We could probably bet on Kurtz against right-handed pitching just about every night and feel pretty good about it. The rookie's numbers this season, when on the right side of his splits, are insane. He's hitting .345 with a .729 SLG, and a 25.7% barrel%. Those are some video game numbers, and we haven't seen a rookie crush baseballs as regularly as Kurtz has this season since coming up to the majors in May.

“That ball was absolutely MELTED” 😳

Nick Kurtz smacked this ball 493 FEET, the longest grand slam in the Statcast Era (since 2015)!

(MLB x @GoogleCloud) pic.twitter.com/kR28QZZRmM

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025

Lucas Giolito is pitching for Boston today, and while he's had a pretty good season when compared to his last few seasons before the arm surgery, he's still a fly-ball-prone pitcher with a 1.1 HR/9 mark this year.

Kurtz has three home runs in his last five games. He's not at home in the home run fun zone that is Sutter Health Park, but he's still in a good spot here in Fenway, where he has a short porch right down the line and the Green Monster in left.

Kurtz has been spraying home runs to all fields, so I won't be surprised if he pulls one out or goes to the opposite field for a bomb either.

Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel)

I normally don't intentionally target hitters for home runs in Kansas City, as Kauffman Stadium is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in Major League Baseball. However, we could see some very strong winds blowing out at game time for the first few hours, eventually subsiding to "just" around 9 mph later in the game. Check out the image below for the hour-by-hour wind forecast.

We also have a very HR-prone pitcher on the mound for Seattle tonight as Bryce Miller gets the ball for the Mariners on the road. Miller is coming off a season-high 11 strikeouts; however, he gave up two more home runs in that game and has allowed 1.3 home runs PER START (not per 9) over his last 10 starts.

Miller's HR/9 is now up to 1.7 on the season, and his batted ball metrics are downright troubling, especially to right-handed hitters, as he's allowed a whopping 51.9% HH% this season.

Miller is leading with his four-seamer 44% of the time, with his splitter as his main offspeed pitch 23% of the time. Bobby Witt Jr. has a .560 SLG and .280 ISO against four-seamers this season, and he hits the splitter much better than you would expect a RHH to, with a .533 SLG and .267 ISO.

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