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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/27/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, August 27, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 54-61-2, -19.64 units
- Sides: 30-33-1, -13.89 units
- Totals: 23-28-1, -7.45 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA +172
LAD: Dustin May | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
After going 1-1 yesterday, we'll look to turn the tide on this beautiful Saturday. While we ran two first-inning unders yesterday, we'll be looking at just one today. We'll head out to Miami where the visiting Dodgers will send Dustin May to the mound for his second start of the season. May tossed a scoreless first last Saturday against the Marlins, although he had to work through a bit of a jam to do so. He walked two, but I'll attribute that to him getting back in the swing of things, as those were his only two walks across the five innings he pitched.
The Marlins will be sending Sandy Alcantara to the mound. Alcantara has tossed a scoreless first inning in ten of 13 starts on the road, and in 20 of 25 starts overall. We backed him last Sunday against the Dodgers and it didn't work out due to a couple of "weak" hits through the infield. Nevertheless, I'll run it back with Sandy and the Marlins this evening.
The Marlins are among the worst in the Majors at scoring runs in the first inning, scoring in just 19% of first innings at home, in just 15% of first innings overall, and in just one of their last ten. The Dodgers remain one of the best offensive teams in the first, scoring in 37% of first innings on the road and in 40% of first innings overall, including five of their last ten. Despite this, my model has the first inning under at -173 while FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at just -156.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Giants @ Twins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIN -142
SF: Alex Cobb | MIN: Sonny Gray
I have some other plays on my radar today, and I'll be looking out to Minnesota for a first-five money line. I'll be backing Alex Cobb (4-6, 3.99 ERA) and the Giants this afternoon. I've discussed Cobb in previous articles, specifically how he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this season. He's allowed just 27.8% hard contact on the season and brings in just a 2.88 xFIP.
On the other hand, Sonny Gray (7-4, 3.10 ERA) will take the ball for Minnesota this evening. Gray has had quite a resurgence in Minnesota this season, and his ERA reflects that. He brings a 34% hard contact rate and a 3.53 xFIP into this start, and projects to a 3.75 xFIP and a 38.34% hard contact rate tonight.
The Giants have a favorable matchup here according to my model, as they're projected to have a higher wOBA + ISO, hard contact rate, home run rate, and a lower strikeout rate. Cobb seemingly out projects Sonny Gray as well, giving the Giants the starting pitching advantage. The bullpens are rather even, but I'd trust Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez than the Giants' back-end of their bullpen, so I'll be sticking with the value on the first five.
Pick: Giants F5 Money Line (+112) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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