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Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. I feel like I haven’t written this article in ages. I subbed in for a DFS article last Tuesday; the week before, I was in the OBX. I’m back on the betting article today, so let’s pick some winners. We have a complete baseball slate with all 30 teams on the schedule today. I will provide you with my two favorite bets on today's slate.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 22, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Padres
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SD (-180)
MIA: Jesus Luzardo | SD: Blake Snell
We start our action today in San Diego with a matchup between the Marlins and the Padres. I said it yesterday in my DFS article, but when this Padres team faces a lefty, they click on all cylinders. The Padres are the fourth-best team in baseball this season against left-hand pitching with a 118 wRC+. Since the All-Star break, they are the best team in the big leagues against the split with a 149 wRC+. I bet on this team a few days ago at +10000 to win the World Series. They are 5.5 games back, and if they can get in, they can make some noise with that lineup.
Jesus Luzardo has been a train wreck over the last month of the season. He has allowed 20 earned runs, including eight home runs, in his previous four starts. Luzardo, in that span, has a 5.28 SIERA, 10.2% BB%, and only 18.2% K%. Compared to the season, he has a 3.69 SIERA, 7.1% BB%, and 27.7% K%. As mentioned above, the Padres have been destroying left-hand pitching since the break. They have six players above a 150 wRC+ against the split in that span, including Ha-Seong Kim, who has a 283 wRC+, and Manny Machado, who has a 204 wRC+.
Blake Snell has had a tremendous season for this Padres team. He starts today with a 2.65 ERA, 4.16 SIERA, 31.0% K%, and 14.7% SwStr%. The Marlins, in the second half of the season against left-hand pitching, own a 91 wRC+, .303 wOBA, and a .409 SLG. Their best player Luis Arraez left yesterday's game due to cramps, so they may also be down their best bat. The safe bet is to eliminate bullpens and take the Padres -0.5 for the first five innings, but I will also be using my 50% profit on DraftKings for the Padres money line.
Pick: Padres -0.5 1st five innings (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Braves
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: ATL (-230)
NYM: Tylor Megill | ATL: Bryce Elder
Our second bet of the night takes us to Atlanta, where the Braves and Mets will square off. Tylor Megill will toe the rubber for the Mets, while Bryce Elder will get the rock for the Braves. Both of these pitchers have underwhelmed in the second half of the season. Since the break, Elder has had a 5.63 SIERA, 9.7 BB %, and 13.0% K%. Megill has been just as bad, with a 5.07 SIERA, 7.1% BB%, and 15.7% K%.
These are both top-ten offenses since the break in wRC+ against right-hand pitching, with the Braves posting a 125 wRC+ and the Mets posting a 112 wRC+. Megill is susceptible to left-handed bats, and the lefties in this lineup for the Braves are hot. Since the break, Matt Olson has a 160 wRC+, and Michael Harris has a 123 wRC+. Over the last 15 days, Eddie Rosario has a 200 wRC+. Not to mention the right-handed power bats in this lineup with Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr. The Braves may cash the over themselves tonight.
Tylor Megill, on the season, has allowed a .371 wOBA, .162 ISO, and a 50.9% hard-hit rate. Over the last 30 days, it's been worst. He's allowing a .432 wOBA, .250 ISO, and a 59.3% hard-hit rate. Bryce Elder has been hit hard by lefties over the last 30 days to a .364 wOBA, .182 ISO, 33.3% hard-hit rate, and only a 1.9% K%. He will face seven lefties tonight in this Mets lineup. I want to attack these two starting pitchers and take the first five innings over.
Pick: OVER 5.5 runs 1st five innings (-145) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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