RADIO
This is quite a fun time for sports! Blockbuster trades are going down in the NFL, baseball is back, and March Madness is upon us! This is what sports is all about! The best part? It's only going to get more chaotic.
Starting on March 14th, NFL teams can begin negotiating with players, looking to boost their roster for a championship push. This year especially, there is going to be a lot of roster movement, as we've already seen.
When it comes to fantasy football, free agency can have a drastic effect on the upcoming season. Every skill player that changes team is not only seeing their stock change, but they are also affecting every member of the team they sign with in terms of commanding opportunities. In such a team sport, the domino effect is clearly present here. Today, we'll be looking at the top free agent wide receivers. Which wide receivers could soar on new teams? What are the optimal landing spots for them?
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Allen Robinson
- Age: 28
- Former Team: Chicago Bears
- Optimal Landing Spot: Jacksonville Jaguars
When you're a top-ten wide receiver in fantasy football drafts, expectations are going to be awfully high. I hate the use the term "bust", but it's hard not to use it for Allen Robinson after what took place in 2021.
Despite his extremely high draft position, Robinson finished 89th (!) in points per game last season. Sure, the circumstances weren't great, but this is someone who has succeeded in spite of catching passes from Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Blake Bottles. On the surface, he seemed as bullet-proof as it gets!
I wouldn't say to discount last season, but there is definitely reason to be hopeful of a bounce-back year. Robinson apparently was unhappy with the fact he was franchise tagged and the situation he was in with Chicago, leading to him not playing as hard down the stretch. This doesn't excuse how his season ended, but it would make some sense. Remember, Robinson eclipsed an 81 PFF receiving grade in each of the two seasons prior, while his 88.1 PFF receiving grade ranked 5th among qualified receivers. To accomplish all of this in spite of the quarterback play is impressive, and speaks to his overall talent.
He might not be a burner, but Robinson can work a vertical route tree and be a reliable target, even in contested-catch situations. An optimal fit could be him returning to Jacksonville to guide in the development of Trevor Lawrence and have a chance to get the targets he's looking for, though there are several teams that will be in the market for his services. Now, will he finally land with a productive quarterback/passing attack? That's the hope.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Age: 25
- Former Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
- Optimal Fit: Kansas City Chiefs
What is it with this free agency receiver class and not coming off of optimal seasons. To be fair, for JuJu Smith-Schuster, we're essentially three years removed from his peak performance.
Yet, that peak still makes him tantalizing. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Smith-Shuster averaged 2.12 yards/route run, while he earned PFF receiving grades of 77.6 and 81.2, respectively. He was making plays after the catch, was able to work down the field, and as a key part of a high-powered offense.
Since then, Smith-Schuster is averaging just 1.3 yards/route run. That's quite the downfall for him, though there is context that should be added. In 2019, he dealt with injuries and caught passes from Mason Rudolph and Delvin Hodges. Then, in 2020, he was a part of an extremely limited passing attack due to Ben Roethlisberger failing to push the ball down the field- Smith-Schuster's average depth of target fell to 6 yards.
The hope was that after 2020, Smith-Schuster would sign with a more productive offense. Instead, he decided to re-sign for one more year in Pittsburgh. He then missed most of 2021 due to a shoulder injury, and will now hit free agency again.
It's safe to say Smith-Shuster is going to be quite the polarizing free agent. Are you buying that his production was limited merely due to his circumstances, or did he decline as a player? In my opinion, he's still too young to not expect him to rebound in the right situation. What about if he lands in Kansas City, finally giving them a third option in the passing game? He certainly does not appear to be a #1 receiver, but you can easily make the case for him as a strong complementary threat. Here's hoping he can get back to his peak production!
Michael Gallup
- Age: 26
- Former Team: Dallas Cowboys
- Optimal Landing Spot: Dallas Cowboys
With Amari Cooper on the way out, this opens up the door for the Cowboys to re-sign Michael Gallup, which appears to be in the works:
Cowboys have been working on a new deal with free-agent-to-be WR Michael Gallup and a deal is considered “close,” per sources. There’s hope the two sides can get it done and keep Gallup in Dallas.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 4, 2022
Before we address Gallup's talents, we need to touch on something that cannot be ignored. He's coming off of a torn ACL which he suffered in Week 16, which may make him unavailable to start the season, while it's unclear how he'll perform once he comes back.
Now, onto Gallup as a player. After a rough rookie seasons, he's been the mark of consistency. He's earned PFF receiving grades of 73.1, 67.1, and 74.4, respectively, in the past three seasons, while he averaged 2.16 yards/route run in 2019. That's notable, as this was the last time he was able to be the #2 option in a passing game.
With a career 13.2 average depth of target, Gallup is a player who can win vertically from the outside. Once he's healthy, he's going to be in a favorable role with a productive passing attack, which is very intriguing. He's someone you may have to stash at first, but the upside later on in the season is what you'd be betting on. Will you take that risk? I guess it depends on how you like to draft!
Christian Kirk
- Age: 25
- Former Team: Arizona Cardinals
- Optimal Landing Spot: Buffalo Bills
Once upon a time, the Cardinals drafted quarterback Josh Rosen and wide receiver Christian Kirk in the 2018 draft, hoping they'd be anchors of their offense for years to come. We know how it turned out with the former, and the latter was trending negatively as well.
That was the case until 2021. After three seasons with middling production, Kirk broke out in a contract year, averaging 1.81 yards/route run, while earning a 72.7 PFF receiving grade – both career-high numbers for him. Furthermore, he ranked 15th with 9.5 yards per target, and commanded over 100 targets for the year.
What changed for Kirk in 2021? The Cardinals started using him much more in the slot (78.6%). Before, they had tried to force him into being out wide, which clearly was not a fit for him. As a vertical slot receiver, though, he really took off.
There are some red flags. For starters, Kirk's 70.6% contested-catch rate appears to be quite unsustainable. Plus, he's not a very flexible player in terms of the role he has, and was in a great situation in Arizona based on the usage and the quarterback play. If he lands somewhere like Buffalo, where he could be utilized optimal in that vertical slot role, he could continue to produce well. However, there's some downside here with him landing with the wrong team, which is concerning. Let's see where Captain Kirk ends up! No, I'm not talking about Kirk Cousins!
Will Fuller
- Age: 27
- Former Team: Miami Dolphins
- Optimal Landing Spot: Green Bay Packers
Sometimes, there are just some tantalizing talents that are hard to quit on. Will Fuller certainly qualifies as such. This is a player that has been injured often, but when healthy, we're talking about one of the better big-play threats in all of football.
In 2020, Fuller was able to stay healthy before being suspended for use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs), and was extremely productive: 85 PFF receiving grade, 2.28 yards/route run. In fact, he had exceeded two yards/route run in every season from 2018 to 2020, making it clear that there were very few questions to be had with his talent.
It was surprising to see Fuller have to settle for a one-year contract with the Dolphins, but the hope was he could emerge as their #1 target getter. Instead, he ran a grand total of 49 routes. Whether it was because of a finger injury and something else, he never came back to the team after that, and it's unclear what to make of him moving forward.
Thus, I expect Fuller's market to not be incredibly strong. That being said, this is a player who has been as productive as it gets when on the field. He's the definition of a big-play threat, and would be perfect as a complementary weapon for the right offense. The Chargers and Chiefs certainly come to mind, but what about the Packers coming in and signing him? They've had interest in him previously, and he'd be a great fit as their #2 option and big-play threat opposite of Davante Adams. Regardless, it's clear landing spot will play a big role here. Now, we just hope to sit and pray he ends up in the right spot!
D.J. Chark
- Age: 25
- Former Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Optimal Landing Spot: Las Vegas Raiders
When you post a 1000 yard season in your second season despite suboptimal quarterback play, that's certainly something that sticks out. Then, when you add another 70+ PFF receiving grade season the following year, the intrigue grows wider.
There's a reason DJ Chark was the highest-drafted wide receiver on the Jaguars. With a 96th percentile speed score, he's a premium athlete that can make plays down the field, and appeared in line to get the most targets in Jacksonville. Many assumed the offense would take a step forward with Trevor Lawrence, which added to the optimism surrounding Chark.
Instead, Chark fractured his ankle in Week 4, causing him to miss the rest of the season. In that span, his production wasn't great, though Jacksonville also clearly pigeon-holed him to a clear role; his average depth of target spiked to 17.1 yards. That being said, Chark also missed most of training camp due to injury, and thus wasn't able to build a rapport with Lawrence –they clearly weren't on the same page.
This is still a talented player who can served as a lesser version of Fuller, albeit with less other risks. Whether it's the Chargers looking for more speed, or the Raiders, who last year struggled mightily when it comes to passing production down the field, there are several offenses that would become more diverse with his services. In terms of fantasy value, he could certainly end up being coveted more he's in a pass-heavy offense with a quarterback adept to throw the ball down the field. So, in other words, not the Philadelphia Eagles, which has been a rumored fit. Make our fantasy teams proud, DJ!
Russell Gage
- Age: 26
- Former Team: Atlanta Falcons
- Optimal Landing Spot: Atlanta Falcons
Russell Gage? That's not exactly a big name. Well, maybe we aren't looking at this properly. Thus, let's use a blind resume exercise.
This player ranked 7th in PFF receiving grade over the final eight weeks of the season, as well as 6th in yards/route run. For the season, he averaged 1.96 yards/route run, earned a 76 PFF receiving grade, and was able to succeed despite seeing his snaps in the slot drop notably.
Yep, that's right; Russell Gage is an underrated asset. He's not someone who is going to make plays after the catch or stretch the field vertically, but he's someone who can clearly get open in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. That still holds value, especially as a receptions magnet for PPR leagues.
With Calvin Ridley out for the season due to a suspension for betting on NFL games, Gage could see a similar situation to last season in Atlanta where he can command a strong amount of targets. There clearly is a trust factor between him and quarterback Matt Ryan, and I'd be concerned about him not being able to stand out or produce in the wrong team. He's not a sexy option, but if you're looking for a potential "steady eddy", Gage can be that!
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Age: 27
- Former Team: Green Bay Packers
- Optimal Landing Spot: Las Vegas Raiders
This is going to sound very old-school, but sometimes, typical production numbers aren't able to 100% quantify the effect someone is having on the football field. Trust me, this is going from a numbers addict, and I can't believe I'm actually saying this.
Well, this is led Marquez Valdes-Scantling has led me to do. For his career, he's never earned a PFF receiving grade of 65 or higher, while he's averaged just 1.37 yards/route run for his career. Yet, a team is going to pay him nicely in free agency, and it's for the effect he can have not he offense.
With a 98th percentile speed score, this is a player that can clearly stretch the field. For his career, Valdes-Scantling has averaged an impressive 17.5 yards/receptions, and commands plenty of air yards in the process. That might not lead to consistent production, yet it definitely can lead to spike weeks, and perhaps he sees an enhanced amount of targets on a new team.
I put the Raiders down as an ideal landing spot for Valdes-Scantling for several of the same reasons as Chark. Assuming a reunion with Green Bay isn't in the store, Indianapolis, Washington, Chicago, and Jacksonville are other teams that could be in the market for his services, and make sense on paper for his fantasy production. He might not be an optimal target for standard leagues, but for best-ball formats or in daily fantasy settings, Valdes-Scantling can be quite interesting if he lands in the right offense. Someday, those air yards are going to lead to better production, right?
Cedrick Wilson
- Age: 26
- Former Team: Dallas Cowboys
- Optimal Landing Spot: Dallas Cowboys
A year ago, I would not assume I'd be talking about Cedrick Wilson as a free agent likely to be compensate nicely. Then again, a lot changes in a year!
Wilson played a very minimal role over the first two seasons in his career, but earned some buzz entering the season. As the #4 receiver in a productive passing attack that runs a lot of 11-personnel, there was clear upside if someone got injured, which happened right away with Michael Gallup suffering an ankle injury. This led to Wilson getting an opportunity to showcase his talents, which he did.
In total, Wilson averaged 1.74 yards/route run, while earning a 73 PFF receiving grade. That isn't shabby for someone who was at best the fourth option in the passing game last season. Working almost strictly from the slot, this is a player Dak Prescott found himself targeting much more down the stretch.
Wilson made plays after the catch (5.8 yards after catch/reception), and also thrived in the intermediate areas of the field (95.9 PFF receiving grade). Furthermore, he also saw some work in the screen game, as Dallas wanted to get the ball in his hands with his abilities after the catch.
After that late-season explosion, it looks like Wilson might even price himself out of Dallas, which could go multiple ways. Perhaps, we'll be looking at this as a flash in the pan, and a team ends up paying too much for him. Or, it could be a sign of things to come. I hate to be the "Debby Downer", but I lean the former happening, though that's less likely to be the case if Wilson can stay in Dallas. Make it happen, Cowboys!
*Jarvis Landry
- Age: 27
- Former Team: Cleveland Browns
- Optimal Landing Spot: Miami Dolphins
We're putting an asterisk here because Landry isn't truly a free agent, at least not yet. He has one year left on his deal in Cleveland but with Amari Cooper heading there via trade and Landry's offseason rumblings of discontentment, an imminent release is possible. That is, if a trade doesn't happen first.
On the same day they agreed to trade for WR Amari Cooper, the Browns also have granted permission to veteran WR Jarvis Landry to see a trade, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2022
If so, there should be many suitors for him and one that makes sense is his former team in Miami. He didn't leave there on the greatest terms, however, so it's not necessarily the most realistic landing spot.
Tua Tagovailoa's precision in the short-to-intermediate passing game would be ideal for Landry but contenders like Kansas City or Buffalo would be pretty nice too.
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