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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Michigan this weekend for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The big news ahead of this race: that former Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr. is officially set to return in 2024. Retirement rumors had been swirling all year around Truex, but he's got at least one more season in him.
Last weekend in Richmond, Chris Buescher drove to victory lane, clinching himself a spot in the Cup Series playoffs. That leaves four open spots left in the playoff field. Can someone below the cut line find a way to get into the current playoff field?
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 8/6/23 at 2:47 PM ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Kyle Larson
Starts 17th - DK: $10,800, FD: $14,000
For the third time in four races, Larson starts outside the top 10, which is notable when his average starting spot this season is 9.8. He also comes into his race with just one top-10 finish in the last four races. He was 19th last week at Richmond.
But with how good Larson is, I think you just have to overlook that and play him for the place differential upside. Larson's one of the most talented drivers in the world, and Michigan is one of his best tracks, as he won three races in a row here in 2016 and 2017, back when he was driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. Since moving to Hendrick Motorsports, he has a third and a seventh at this track.
And the last time he started this far back here, he finished third. I don't anticipate a ton of passing in this race, but Larson's someone who can work his way forward.
Kevin Harvick
Starts 22nd - DK: $10,300, FD: $12,500
Harvick's another strong place differential option. While Stewart Haas Racing as a whole is down this year, Harvick's only somewhat been affected by that, and he comes into this race with three consecutive top 10 finishes. Harvick, in his final full-time Cup Series season, sits sixth in points, the highest of any driver without a win.
And now, he comes to Michigan. Starting 22nd likely means Harvick won't be competing for the victory, but we can't count him out. Since Kurt Busch's win here from 24th in 2015, just two Michigan races have seen a winner come from 15th or worse. Both of those were Harvick.
In fact, Harvick's shown he can win from anywhere at Michigan, posting six victories here. He's won from a front-row starting spot. He's won from 20th. And overall, he's won five of the last seven races at this track. Have to assume he'll be up near the front by the time this one's over.
Christopher Bell
Starts 1st - DK: $9,800, FD: $11,000
Bell hasn't put a full race together at Michigan yet during his Cup Series career. It looked like he might last year, as he started second and led 31 laps, but he was involved in a late crash and finished 26th.
Still, his performance before that crash suggested that this is going to be a good track for Bell going forward, and the fact that he put himself on pole for Sunday's race helps support that argument as well.
And that's before we factor in how track position gives Bell upside. Last year, the first 48 laps were led by a driver who started on the front row, as Bubba Wallace led the first 21, then Bell the next 27. That clean air matters here at Michigan, and Bell will begin the race with it. Good chance for this 20 car to wind up back in victory lane.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Starts 27th - DK: $7,000, FD: $6,000
You know, after Stenhouse won the Daytona 500, I thought he'd fade a lot more than he has. Instead, he's already just two top 10s away from tying his career high, and his 15.5 average finish is the best of his Cup Series career.
Stenhouse struggled in qualifying, but he's shown speed on similar tracks this year, notably finishing 12th at Fontana earlier this season. The team also had top 15 results at Kansas and Charlotte, and he was seventh at Pocono last month—not a track that really races like Michigan, but one where we did get to see that this 47 team still has speed on big tracks.
Stenhouse crashed early in this race last year, but he had top 20 results here in 2020 and 2021.
Ryan Preece
Starts 28th - DK: $6,600, FD: $5,800
Outside of Kevin Harvick, it's been a long year for Stewart Haas Racing. But there are some signs that's changing. Last week, all four teams finished 11th or better, for example. Ryan Preece's fifth-place result at Richmond was the best for SHR and was his best finish in the Cup Series at a track that wasn't a superspeedway.
Preece has struggled a lot, though. His average finish is just 21.6, and two weeks ago at Pocono, he started 34th and finished 31st. There's a good chance he gets mired back in traffic on Sunday and can't move forward.
But with SHR looking slightly racier as of late, I think there's some upside here. Preece's overall performance will scare people off, and that makes him a nice pivot in GPPs.
Corey LaJoie
Starts 31st - DK: $5,500, FD: 4,200
LaJoie is probably my favorite value play on this slate. He's really struggled over the last four races, with four finishes in a row of 27th or worse, but he's had some good runs on intermediate tracks in 2023.
The obvious one to talk about is Fontana, the other two-mile track on the Cup schedule. LaJoie was solid all day in that one, starting 12th and finishing 14th. He also finished in the top 20 at Kansas, Charlotte, and Nashville. (I'm not mentioning his top five at Atlanta, since that's such a drafting track now.)
If LaJoie can run a clean race, there are 10-plus points of place differential upside here at a very low cost.
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