RADIO
Scott Engel's 2022 fantasy football undervalued draft targets and overvalued draft avoids. He takes an early look at FFPC ADPs to find values and reaches.
We have not arrived at training camp times on the calendar yet, but the focus is quickly shifting to fantasy football season for many fantasy players. Drafts are underway already in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC), a premier high-stakes platform for savvy competitors.
Some of the FFPC’s best compete in the FootballGuys Players Championship, a season-long format in which there are 12 weeks of head-to-head play and five weeks of playoffs. To get an early look at drafting trends, we reviewed the latest fantasy football ADPs (Average Draft Position reports) from this format.
There are FFPC games available for all levels of players at various price points, so sign up here and get a $25 discount as a new player if you are a RotoBaller subscriber.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Fantasy Football Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (2.13 overall): I would not spend a second overall pick on McCaffrey. He has been a polarizing figure so far in some preseason fantasy debates this preseason. His backers say McCaffrey has suffered some “unlucky” injuries in recent years. The detractors point to him missing extensive time with what really aren’t major injuries. I will meet somewhere in the middle. Two seasons of significant missed time bumps McCaffrey down to the middle to late part of the first round, but he could still be a league-winning player, so it’s not like I am moving him out of the first round either. That said, I will have second thoughts about taking him at all.
Javonte Williams (22.17): Despite the return of Melvin Gordon, Williams is still being drafted as a back-end RB1 so far. The new coaching staff may not employ an even split, but I cannot draft Williams as a No. 1 fantasy RB if he is getting 60 to 65 percent of the carries, which could be the case this season in Denver.
Nick Chubb (29): Chubb is not being drafted as a No. 1 RB, which could make him a value play. If Deshaun Watson serves an extended suspension, Chubb will be a crux of the Browns offense again. In any games Watson may play, Chubb could see more open running room and many opportunities to finish off scoring drives with TD runs.
Ezekiel Elliott (38.5): Elliott is reportedly healthy and has a lot to prove. You are not longer drafting him as a fantasy RB1, so he is worth the shot at the ADP to possibly perform as a superb No. 2 RB this season.
Josh Jacobs (60.17): There have already been published reports that indicate Jacobs could start getting pushed out of a lead RB role with the Raiders. The new regime may start prepping their guy, rookie Zamir White (165.17) for an important role in the offense.
It’s intriguing how much Raiders new RB Zamir White is reminiscent of Josh Jacobs. Love his power through contact and how the first guy rarely gets him down. He has good vision & saw a decent jump cut. Looks like White has more top end speed though. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/eNp8clGz44
— Chris Reed (@ChrisReed_NFL) May 1, 2022
Damien Harris (93.3): The ADP seems low for an RB that rushed for 15 TDs on 4.6 yards per carry last season.
Rashaad Penny (95.6): Rookie Kenneth Walker III is being taken at 75, but if Penny stays healthy, he may still be the slightly preferred RB for Seattle to open the season. Both RBs are capable of leading the Seahawks in rushing in any given week when the two are working together.
Kenneth Gainwell (128): Miles Sanders is already looking like a bust and Boston Scott is more of a depth player on the roster, although he is a good one. Gainwell is versatile and could emerge as the best fantasy RB from the Eagles in 2022.
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb (14.83): I am totally on board with pushing Lamb up the board to the point where he is the sixth WR being taken so far in this FFPC format. Amari Cooper is gone, fully positioning Lamb as the unquestioned No. 1 WR for a proven passer who was second in the NFC in completions last season. You have to be aggressive in high-stakes formats. and I agree with taking that approach on Lamb.
Michael Pittman Jr. (33): I do like Pittman myself, and working with Matt Ryan should be an obvious improvement over Carson Wentz. I still won’t draft him over the likes of Jaylen Waddle and Terry McLaurin just yet. Waddle has more upside and McLaurin is a proven No. 1 NFL wide receiver.
D.J. Moore (39.17): Yes, Moore has overcome mediocre QB play before, but it’s going to be asking a lot of him to do it again with the Panthers’ current situation. Plus, he is being drafted too high for a WR that has never caught more than four TD passes in a season.
Marquise Brown (46.8): The Cardinals overpaid in their trade for him. Brown never made the most of his opportunity to be a No. 1 WR in Baltimore and will be overmatched in the role when DeAndre Hopkins is out. When Hopkins returns, Brown can be more comfortable as a No. 2 WR for Arizona, but he should be more of a fantasy WR3.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (64): He is a bargain on just about every ADP board I am consulting. Smith-Schuster caught 97 passes with nine TDs two years ago when he was healthy and dealt with a shaky QB situation. This year, he will work with Patrick Mahomes and likely be his No. 1 wide receiver. Smith-Schuster is one of the best early value picks in most seasonal drafts.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has an ADP of WR29, yet has legitimate WR1 upside:
• Patrick Mahomes averages 37.8 TDs per season
• 317 vacated targets in Kansas City
• No WR on the team (other than JuJu & Josh Gordon) has caught more than 41 receptions in a season— SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) June 16, 2022
Tyler Lockett (101.1): Lockett had a magical connection with Russell Wilson, and his fantasy production will obviously take a hit to the point where he may be more of a lower-end fantasy WR3. He could see his role change to be more of a player who works for yardage after the catch and makes important possession grabs. Lockett won’t have massive occasional games like he used to with Wilson, but he is not going to disappear to the point where he should be taken not too far ahead of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kenny Golladay.
Fantasy Football Tight Ends
Dawson Knox (93): As the 10th tight end off the board in this FFPC format, Knox can be a value choice. He should still play a key role in the Buffalo passing game as a top target on key downs and in the red zone. The rise of Gabriel Davis won’t necessarily mean Dawson falls off significantly in a heavy passing offense.
Cole Kmet (109.67): In the FFPC, where tight ends are awarded 1.5 points for a reception, Kmet could be the key to a championship push. The Bears made no moves of note to improve the pass-catching corps, and Kmet should emerge as a top target for Justin Fields this season.
Austin Hooper (173.17): Hooper is one of my favorite bargain TEs in the FFPC this season. After losing A.J. Brown, the Titans will have to piece together a respectable passing game. Hooper should be an important contributor as a guy to move the sticks and score near the goal line.
Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (91.67): Hurts is positioned to be a top-four fantasy QB in 2022. His receiving corps has been upgraded in a major way, as he now has an ideal WR1, an upside WR2, and a proven TE. Plus, the rushing upside is apparent. Hurts is my favorite “arrow pointing up” QB this season.
Matthew Stafford (132): Stafford is being drafted as QB12 here, but he finished as QB5 last season. He is not a running QB, but Stafford can easily finish in that range again.
Aaron Rodgers (145.6): He doesn’t have a clear WR1 to many observers, but this is still Aaron Rodgers, and he should not be drafted outside of the top 12 at QB.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
More Fantasy Football Analysis
