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John Johnson breaks down fantasy football rookie sleepers and risers for Week 11 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
It's almost time for the Week 11 slate of games, and the trade deadline has passed in many leagues. Yet in others, you can still make moves for players on other peoples' rosters. There are also still rookies that have yet to break out or have encountered difficulties that you can pick up as free agents.
We've seen rookies not break out until the fantasy playoffs, and then proceed to go nuclear. Remember Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown's rookie season? He scored 23.5, 26.0, and 35.4 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 15-17 of his freshman year. If you had him, he could have single-handedly helped you win your championship.
So who should you still be gunning for out of all the first-year players in the league?
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Make A Move For Him If You Can: Malik Nabers
He's been on a cold streak lately, but that could change. Indeed, New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (and the entire passing offense) hasn't been nearly as productive since the injury to elite left tackle Andrew Thomas. He was the glue that held the O together, and he's gone for the season.
Malik Nabers per game averages before the Andrew Thomas injury:
🔹Targets - 13.0
🔹Catches - 8.8
🔹Yards - 96.5
🔹TDs - .8
🔹Half PPR PPG - 18.5After the Andrew Thomas injury:
🔹Targets - 10.5
🔹Catches - 6.5
🔹Yards - 55.3
🔹TDs - 0.0
🔹Half PPR PPG - 8.7 pic.twitter.com/cdmimgUUJ3— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) November 11, 2024
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones hasn't been great with Thomas out of the lineup, but Leek's target volume is still elite. Many fantasy managers have likely cooled off on the rookie superstar, and with falling enthusiasm comes more willingness to trade. It would be a good time to make a move -- his price is likely at or near its lowest this season.
Malik Nabers making guys touch grass 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/OEshvF2TSc
— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2024
Maybe backup QB Drew Lock could get a chance to start for his team soon. Jones has been playing at a bench-worthy level. And Lock could easily lock on to Nabers early and often, rather than waiting until the fourth quarter to start spamming No. 1 with targets. Don't forget it -- Nabers is an elite receiver with elite target volume.
Not enough Wan’Dale Robinson MVP chatter pic.twitter.com/ikYeOFjWKK
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) November 12, 2024
As you can see, even with that many targets, he's still been ridiculously productive. They could stand to benefit from targeting him even more.
NFL Target Share% Leaders
37.2% - Malik Nabers
33.3% - Justin Jefferson
32.5% - Cooper Kupp
31.5% - A.J Brown
29.6% - Garrett Wilson
28.2% - George Pickens
28.4% - Amon-Ra St.Brown
27.7% - Zay Flowers
27.2% - DeVonta Smith
27.1% - Josh Downs
26.7% - CeeDee Lamb— Fantasy Football Drive (@FantasyFFDrive) November 8, 2024
Nabers' remaining schedule is ridiculously soft, and his playoff schedule is sublime. He'll face the teams that allow the most, the eighth-most, and the 12th-most PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers in Weeks 15-17. He gets a soft matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 as well. Buy him now if you can.
Could Be Free With PPR Upside: Jonathon Brooks
With the signing of Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard to a massive new contract, many fantasy managers may have given up on rookie Jonathon Brooks, making him a free pickup in many leagues with nice PPR upside. Hubbard doesn't get much work in the passing game.
Landing spot obviously is important but Jonathon Brooks’ smooth and natural pass-catching ability give him the upside to be the top rookie RB in fantasy in 2024.
His contact balance is awesome, too. pic.twitter.com/B5v6pR9It7
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) February 26, 2024
If he's available on waivers or as a free agent, he's worth a bench spot in most leagues. He could be productive even with limited touches, considering that the Panthers offensive guards are generally the highest-rated players by PFF weekly, and the run blocking has been excellent.
Chuba Hubbard has been cookin
Carolina Panthers EPA per play ranks:
Pass plays -- 30th
Non-Hubbard RB runs -- 29th
Hubbard runs -- 6th pic.twitter.com/t8IPJ8tpQf— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 7, 2024
Hubbard has done an excellent job, but the offensive line has consistently opened up holes for him, giving him plenty of space to operate. Brooks has had plenty of time to rest now. He may only get a few touches per game, but he has tons of upside. He's rostered in 63% of leagues, so you may need to trade for him, but it should be pretty cheap.
Is It Finally His Time? Adonai Mitchell
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell easily had his best game of 2024 in Week 10. He caught all six of his targets for 71 yards against an elite Buffalo Bills pass defense that's allowed the eighth-fewest PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
All-22 of Adonai Mitchell's 6 targets in Week 10.
⚡️6 targets - 17.1% Share
⚡️37 Routes - 94.9% Route Rate
⚡️52 Air Yards - 18.8%AD Mitchell has been flashing all season. He scored 13.1 PPR fantasy points making him the WR22 in week 10. Five of his Six catches went for first… pic.twitter.com/3QpVKleGmP
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) November 14, 2024
At this point, his talent, separation skills, and ability to play effectively on the outside aren't in question. What is debatable is whether he'll get the playing time to succeed consistently or whether the team's starting quarterback moving forward, Anthony Richardson, can improve his play.
Great piece by Stephen. Anthony Richardson wasn’t hurting anybody, he just needed to grow up a little.
Promising to see how committed he’s become to righting his wrongs. https://t.co/IOXjP8LRBK pic.twitter.com/quwGTs3Pis
— Noah Compton (@nerlens_) November 15, 2024
It appears that things are trending upward with ARich. He's investing more time into the nuances of having an NFL franchise on his shoulders. That should pay off in improving his passing consistency -- hopefully, he can complete passes at a rate higher than 44.4%. That will benefit Mitchell.
The question of playing time is tougher to answer. Mitchell had a ton of playing time in Week 10 -- he logged over 94% of the team's snaps. But that was because WR Michael Pittman Jr. (back) wasn't able to go, and he'll be back for the team's Week 11 contest against the New York Jets.
First-Read Target Shares vs. Average Separation Score
[Through Week 10]- Very exciting to see Adonai Mitchell succeed in the Michael Pittman role
- No player is being brute-forced more volume than Davante Adams right now, but he's topped 10.0 fantasy points just once with NYJ pic.twitter.com/baWdD2lOhb
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) November 12, 2024
The biggest problem with Mitchell has been his lack of playing time in recent weeks (other than last Sunday). He's rotated snaps with WR Alec Pierce. Mitchell is unequivocally a more talented wideout than Pierce, but that doesn't mean he'll hog playing time away from him.
With MPJ out, the rookie essentially played his role and performed better than Pittman did. Perhaps he's earned more playing time, but we will need to see his snap share increase markedly in the coming weeks from what it was previously (~20% will absolutely not cut it).
Another Giants Buy: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. created a pair of costly turnovers in Week 10, though he still had a nice day. He's a speculative pickup -- he's been the only thing that's worked consistently on the Giants offense for the past few weeks (Leek is a god, but Jones holds him back too much).
Tyrone Tracy since becoming RB1:
6 Games
95 Rushes
516 Yds
5.4 Y/C
3 TDs
3 100 yard games pic.twitter.com/ChYI1hTynb— Zain (@ThisIsNotZain) November 11, 2024
The biggest reason Tracy is a buy is that a quarterback change could lead to much more work on dump-off passes, which would make his PPR value shoot up. He caught all six of his targets for 57 yards in Week 6 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but curiously, he's only been targeted nine times in the four games since.
Even if he doesn't get more work in the passing game, he could improve his weekly point totals if he cleans up his turnover issues, and that's something that can be corrected with training. So there's plenty of reason for optimism for the former Purdue Boilermaker, and you should try to get him if you can.
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
It's getting tougher to find league winners, and with the trade deadline having passed in many leagues, it won't get much easier.
But you shouldn't give up on trying to find edges with rookies now. The Sun God brought many fantasy teams to eventual glory in 2021, and the same could happen with one of these guys this year. You never know. Until next time.
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