Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 4

September 27, 2024

Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 4 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.

Week 3 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.

Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 3, our biggest risers were Rashid Shaheed, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Godwin, Zay Flowers, and James Conner. Our biggest fallers were Rachaad White, Kyle Pitts, Jerome Ford, Michael Pittman Jr., and Najee Harris. The risers didn’t have their best games in Week 3, but there’s still a lot to be excited about when you look at their utilization profiles.

Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 4.

Week 4 Fantasy Football Risers

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers

All it took was a little Andy Dalton magic to turn Johnson back into the alpha we knew he could be. In his first game with the Red Rifle under center, Carolina’s WR1 posted a 38% target share and 35% target rate. He turned his 14 targets into eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. He dropped another touchdown, which would have made his day that much more special.

Diontae Johnson 8-122-1 performance actually left some meat on the bone:

1. Dropped a six-yard TD (not the easiest catch in the world to be fair)
2. Pressure/off-target pass led to a missed one-yard TD pic.twitter.com/7OEsovp5KA

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2024

And Johnson isn’t just some flash in the pan. He’s been a target hog when healthy over the past few seasons. Not only that, but the Panthers threw the ball 37 times in Week 3 despite playing with the lead most of the game.

No offense to head coach Dave Canales or Dalton, but the Panthers are unlikely to play with the lead very often going forward. That could mean even more passing, which would mean even more Diontae Johnson!

Adam Thielen also suffered a hamstring injury in Week 3, which should lead to even more work for DJ in the short term. This isn’t a sell-high situation, ride Diontae in Canales’ offense with the Red Rifle under center.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas was a GODert in Week 3. Without A.J. Brown (hamstring) and with DeVonta Smith exiting the game early with a concussion, Goedert racked up 170 yards on 11 targets (31.4% target share). He also ran a route on 89% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks. 

GOEDERT GETS 61 YARDS ON 3RD & 16!

📺: #PHIvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/EBe8TFImy9

— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024

Goedert hasn’t played many snaps without Brown or Smith on the field in the last two seasons. In Week 4, there’s at least a chance that happens. If nothing else, likely, at least one of the two doesn’t suit up. That’ll give Goedert another shot at elite-level production. And we saw in Week 3 that he’s capable of being the go-to guy for Hurts.

With the tight-end position being such a wasteland early in the 2024 season, Goedert has officially entered into must-start territory.

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

JJ (he deserves a nickname after his Week 3 performance) hasn’t had many opportunities to shine in his four years in San Francisco. But with Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf) and George Kittle (hamstring) out, he made the most of his opportunity, going 11-175-3 on 12 targets.

Can’t tell if that’s Jauan Jennings or 49ers legend Randy Moss.

📺: #SFvsLAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/4yn3FZbMTA

— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024

This kind of performance won’t happen every week, but it doesn’t have to for Jennings to be a startable fantasy asset. Samuel and Kittle are not guaranteed to return in Week 4 (or even Week 5) and Christian McCaffrey is in Germany seeking treatment for his Achilles tendonitis. The 49ers are devoid of playmakers and Jennings fits the bill.

If you have a loaded roster with a bunch of good wide receivers, now might be a good time to try and sell Jennings. Otherwise, hold onto him and ride the wave. He’s more of a “flash in the pan” than Diontae Johnson, but he’s also a good football player with a lot of skill. 

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Jones has been a revelation for the Vikings so far in 2024. He’s currently the RB10 in PPR formats, averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game. Per PlayerProfiler, Jones currently ranks fifth in yards created per touch (5.3) and eighth in true yards per carry (5.3).

An Aaron Jones breakaway in open field getting to the 1, leads to a Johnny Mundt touchdown! That’s FOUR passing touchdowns for Sam (Slingin’ Sammy-D) Darnold today! #SKOL #Vikings #NFL pic.twitter.com/KlPnqUuDrX

— 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐚𝐧 𝕏 (@MessiahVikings) September 22, 2024

He’s also being utilized a bunch in the passing game. Jones is eighth among running backs in route participation (56.9%) and third in targets with 14. He also has nine red-zone touches in three games compared to just three for Ty Chandler. Every metric you look at this season tells you Jones is still a very capable running back.

Current RB Leaders in Missed Tackles Forced per Touch
+@FantasyPtsData

1. Zach Charbonnet (0.26)*
2. Rhamondre Stevenson (0.25)

Current RB Leaders in Yards After Contact per Attempt

1. Antonio Gibson (4.43)*
2. Aaron Jones (3.95)

*RIP my priors

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 24, 2024

The Vikings are also averaging 28.3 points per game with Sam Darnold under center. This team is humming and Jones has been a big part of the reason why. Instead of selling high, you should consider buying high because AJ is here to stay.

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

It took a couple of weeks, but Odunze finally broke out in Week 3. His utilization has been great in the last two weeks without Keenan Allen on the field. He’s played nearly every snap and has a 95% route participation rate. That could remain the case going forward, especially as Allen continues to miss time. 

Rome Odunze in the first game without Keenan Allen (heel, personal):

* 89-of-90 snaps
* 54 wide, 35 slot
* 55 routes on 56 Caleb dropbacks
* 11 targets for a 21% share
* 6-112-1 result pic.twitter.com/qrJF8IWXmZ

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 23, 2024

In addition to his heel injury, Allen had “personal” added to the injury report in Week 3. There could be something else going on there. That would cement Odunze as the WR2 in Chicago for the foreseeable future. If he continues to play the way he played in Week 3, he’ll continue to earn playing time even when Allen does make his return.

This is an ascending team with what is considered a very good rookie prospect in Caleb Williams. And there are some very friendly matchups against the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars before Chicago’s Week 7 bye. Odunze’s stock is way up as we head into Week 4.

Other Risers: Jake Ferguson, Jayden Reed, Roschon Johnson, Jalen Nailor, Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle

Week 4 Fantasy Football Fallers

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews has caught six balls for 65 yards on eight targets in three games! He’s seen his snap share (74% > 63% > 33%) and route participation rate (74% > 69% > 29%) decrease each week. When asked about his playing time, HC John Harbaugh pointed to the game script and a run-heavy approach.

#Ravens HC John Harbaugh telling Mark Andrews managers that they’re in for a hellacious roller coaster

(Harbaugh mentioned earlier in the presser that to be able to run the ball when you want to, and do it out of big groups that protect the edges, that’s something that’s in our… pic.twitter.com/9XlTw3GwxK

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 23, 2024

That never used to be the case with Andrews in previous years. In 2024, he’s now sharing the workload with not one, but two other tight ends in Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar.

Ravens TEs in Week 3
+ per @FantasyPtsData

Isaiah Likely: 39 snaps, 5 routes
Mark Andrews: 25 snaps, 4 routes 😭
Charlie Kolar: 21 snaps, 3 routes

Note: other sources count blocking on screens and run-blocking on RPOs as "routes" which is dumb IMO

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 24, 2024

The tight-end position is extremely shallow this season, so it’s hard not to start Andrews given the upside we've seen in the past. But as Harbaugh alluded to, it’s going to be up and down for both Andrews and Likely throughout the season.

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

Despite averaging nearly 16 opportunities per game, Swift hasn't scored double-digit fantasy points yet this season. From an efficiency standpoint, he's been one of the worst running backs this season.

Yard Before and After Contact per @FantasyPtsData

- D'Andre Swift is bad
- JT, James Cook, and Dobbins looking very strong
- Barkley could have a huge season if his blocking get a little better
- Devin Singletary a legit great runner despite poor blocking pic.twitter.com/OF3x1oe1jZ

— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) September 24, 2024

He's gone from a 70% snap share in Week 1, to a 66% snap share in Week 2, to just a 53% snap share in Week 3. Additionally, his RB opportunity share fell drastically in Week 3 with Roschon Johnson mixing in. In Week 2, Swift had a 79% RB opportunity share. That fell to just 50% in Week 3 with Roschon getting 38.2% of the work out of the backfield. And Johnson looked like the better running back between the two.

🚨🚨 Priority Add Bears RB roschon johnson. We had been asking for weeks who the backup is for D’Andre Swift. We got our answer the Bears place Travis Homer on IR who had been getting majority touches over Khalil Herbert, this previous week Johnson got 8 carries 30 yds rsh 4 rec. pic.twitter.com/4G17E8D6pD

— The Ramble (@TheRambletv) September 24, 2024

It's only a matter of time before OC Shane Waldron gives 50% of the backfield opportunities to Johnson rather than Swift. It's now possible that happens as early as Week 4 given what both guys put on film in Week 3.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

Ridley, like Swift, hasn't lived up to expectations with his new team. He has yet to catch more than four balls in any one game, and he had just one catch for nine yards on three targets in Week 3. What's troublesome about that output is that DeAndre Hopkins saw his workload increase and is finally starting to get healthy after a preseason MCL sprain.

In Week 3, Hopkins had seven targets on just 22 routes run. That's a 31.8% target rate compared to a target rate of just 9.7% for Ridley in that game. Things could certainly flip-flop on a game-by-game basis, but it's not a good sign for Ridley that Hopkins is overtaking him as he starts to get healthier and in better game shape.

The other factor going against Ridley is Will Levis. Per PlayerProfiler, Ridley has the 68th-best target quality rating and ranks 71st in catchable target rate (53.8%). He also leads all receivers in air yards, air yards share, average depth of target, and deep targets. That's great, but if the balls are not catchable, what good are the air yards?

It appears Ridley is much more of a boom-or-bust option this season as opposed to a "set it and forget it" option for our fantasy teams.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Williams is not only a big faller heading into Week 4, but he's getting very close to being a cut candidate. He's still seen nine targets in his last two games, but he hasn't been able to do much at all on the ground. Through three games, Williams has amassed just 52 rushing yards on 24 carries.

Now, Tyler Badie is mixing in. In Week 3, Badie turned nine carries into 70 yards. Look at this kid go:

Tyler Badie’s top speed of 20.99 MPH on this run makes him the 3rd fastest ball carrier of Week 3, and 10th fastest ball carrier of the entire season on any one play.

RB1.

pic.twitter.com/CDtKVoEqKN

— EpicNormie (@EpicNormie_) September 23, 2024

Williams, meanwhile, churned out just 12 yards on five carries. After Week 2 in which he had a 76.2% RB opportunity share, Williams had just a 37.5% RB opportunity share last week despite the Broncos playing with the lead throughout.

Javonte is also facing stacked boxes at the highest rate in the league. Like Wyatt says in his tweet below, that's unlikely to change given his lack of success and the Broncos' lack of pass-catching weapons.

Javonte Williams is facing 8+ defenders in the box at easily the highest rate (57.9%), likely because defenses don’t fear Bo Nix in any way. Hard to fault Javonte too much for producing so little as a rusher but things are also unlikely to change.

— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) September 19, 2024

Other Fallers: Josh Jacobs, D'Onta Foreman, Ezekiel Elliott

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