2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Regression Candidates: Potential Sophomore Slumps

March 19, 2025

John's fantasy football regression candidates for 2025. Which second-year players could be potential busts and avoids in 2025 fantasy football drafts?

No one, and especially not Dynasty fantasy football managers, wants to hear that their rookie breakout player is going to slump in their second season. Yet we see that happen pretty much every season with certain players. The best example from 2024 was quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stroud won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award for his exploits in 2023. Yet he looked like a completely different player in 2024, struggling to put together any consistent passing attack, crumbling under pressure, and putting a slew of horrible throws on tape.

Sophomore slumps happen, and they happen for a variety of reasons. To look at every good rookie from 2024 and refuse to believe that any could have a "down year" in 2025 would be to bury your head in the sand. Let's not do that. Of course, slumps aren't easy to predict, but let's dive in anyway.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

There are two major factors that would drive a slump if McConkey were to experience one in 2025. The first would be the introduction of a new legitimate receiving threat. The team desperately needs it, whether it be a WR2 to McConkey or (unlikely) a player that ends up taking the WR1 spot.

The worst-case scenario is likely that McConkey becomes a 1A or 1B to another 1B or 1A. This year's WR draft class isn't super strong, but my WR1 of the class, Tre Harris, would likely be a target hog. This won't have a huge effect on McConkey's value, but it would probably stop peoples' wild expectations of him taking another nuclear leap in 2025.

Ladd McConkey as a ROOKIE:

➖MORE Yards than Garrett Wilson (1,149)
➖MORE Receptions than Tyreek Hill (82)
➖MORE TD’s than CeeDee Lamb (7)

His Win Rate Vs. Man Coverage (41.0%) was 7th in the NFL

He set the Record for MOST Receiving Yards (197) by a Rookie in a Playoff Game pic.twitter.com/WcAJG6DCqj

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) February 12, 2025

Interestingly, it's actually likely a worse situation if the team doesn't get a legitimate No. 2 option. Fellow Chargers WR Quentin Johnston is a complete bust, Josh Palmer is simply not very good, and there are no other legit options for pass-catchers on that team (that includes Johnston and Palmer). Next season, defenses will fully commit to shutting down McConkey if the Chargers decide to trot out the same pass-catching corps.

McConkey is an excellent wideout, but he probably won't have great statistical production if he's constantly bracketed. The saying goes that your team is only as good as your second-best WR, and it's hard to consistently succeed when you're being double-covered over and over again.

We like the first scenario better. A blueprint for both McConkey and the (hopefully) incoming WR2 could be similar to those of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Quarterback Justin Herbert made both successful fantasy football starting options. We hope he does the same in 2025 with his new WR1 and WR2.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After such a ridiculous rookie season, it's worth stepping back and taking a look with a wide-angle lens to try to see how Irving did so well. He deserves a ton of credit. He's ridiculously elusive. He was the most elusive RB in college football in 2023, and in his first year in the league, he unsurprisingly was the most elusive back in the NFL.

Giving the exact amount of credit where credit is due to everyone who had a hand in the offense is a difficult task, but it's hard not to think that former offensive coordinator Liam Coen elevated the entire team. Wide receiver Chris Godwin looked like a league-winner before his ankle injury, WR Mike Evans had one of his best seasons as a pro in the games he did play, and quarterback Baker Mayfield was a waiver-wire god.

Some gap and trap schemes from the Bucs now Jags Liam Coen offense. Great wham scheme below vs odd front. @CoachCiocci @CoachKuseee @FB_Coach_Wilk @CoachWhiteUMass @KyleDeVan68 @KJJFlood@CoachMalot https://t.co/Q8CjnKeAvm pic.twitter.com/XdqqzFEjFf

— coachkou (@coachkou) February 14, 2025

Coen's schemes were fantastic, and the blocking setups were great. Irving averaged 2.7 yards before contact per rush attempt, good for 7th in the league among RBs with 100 or more carries. White's low number in this regard is more due to the fact that he's terrible than anything else.

Irving was given a ton of space to work and used very creatively. Given how quickly Coen was hired as a HC (after just one season as the offensive coordinator with Tampa Bay), it's probably true that he played a big part in Irving's success.

No. 7 managed a 1,500 yard from scrimmage and eight touchdown season. He wasn't used heavily in the first part of the year, either. While it's reasonable to see him hitting close to those numbers again, his huge output and efficiency in the second half of the season will be hard to replicate.

Travis Etienne in the Bucky Irving role 🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/aYBaTZYegF

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 24, 2025

A slight downtick in efficiency is reasonable to expect here. Late-round running backs also don't have a great track record long-term. Opposing defenses likely spent very little time in the offseason preparing for him, as is usually the case with late round picks in the draft. The defenses focus more on who they perceive to be the most likely threats in the offseason.

They'll now center their run defense around stopping Irving because it's not like White is good. Irving's value is very high in redraft leagues. I don't recommend selling him off in Dynasty, but pumping the brakes on his ADP in redraft leagues is probably a good idea.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Please note that if the Raiders draft quarterback Jaxson Dart, Bowers is less likely to be a regression candidate. Dart is my QB1 of the class, and he should help Bowers put together another good season in his sophomore year. Also, if Las Vegas picks up another legitimate pass-catching option, Bowers should be in good shape.

There are two glaring problems here. First of all, if neither of the above scenarios happen, Las Vegas could have another year of mediocre offense. That didn't affect Bowers much in his rookie season, but defenses will be able to clamp down on him, bracket him as much as possible, and double-cover him in an attempt to slow him down. Because Las Vegas has a poor run game, they often struggled to move the ball when Bowers wasn't going off.

The Raiders have the worst run game in the NFL and the issues aren't all on the OL pic.twitter.com/WuJTCCmqLF

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) September 25, 2024

Running back is also a big need for Las Vegas. They could use their first-round pick on one of the good backs of this class, or they could wait and pick up a good one later. It's stacked, but if they pick up the wrong one, it could be bad news. Even then, they have a ton of needs.

They need another good receiver. WR Jakobi Meyers is best suited as a good WR2. Since they have to pick a quarterback and the receiver market is weak right now, that could be tough. And if they bust with their QB pick, they could be in a world of pain.

Pete Carroll having Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, and Harrison Bryant all running the same amount of routes in week 1. pic.twitter.com/uj9kPBxh1j

— Jesse Moeller (@JMoeller05) January 24, 2025

The other deeply concerning issue is new head coach Pete Carroll, who essentially turned tight end Jimmy Graham into a non-factor in his offense in Seattle. There's no guarantee Carroll will make the same stupid decision with Bowers, but there's a non-zero chance.

It would be a terrible idea for him to do so, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him cut back on Bowers routes' and pass-game usage and try to get Mayer more heavily involved. Mayer was also selected in the first round of his draft class, and he has plenty of untapped potential as a pass-catcher.

He missed time due to personal issues last year but should log a full season this time around. Much like with Irving, there's reason to be cautious about Bowers' sky-high ADP now.

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