Fantasy Football Players to Target and Avoid in 2024 - AFC West

July 13, 2024

Dave Ventresca looks at each NFL team in the AFC West and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2024.

Every year in fantasy football drafts, there are players we want to target and those we want to avoid. It’s one of the core strategies to winning your league. The Kansas City Chiefs have long dominated the AFC West, and they have been a fantasy gold mine for years in the process. However, it doesn’t mean there aren’t other fantasy-relevant players in this division.

As part of our in-depth fantasy football coverage here at RotoBaller, we are examining which players you should target and which ones you should fade across all eight divisions in the NFL. Today, we will break down several players from the AFC West and what you should be doing with these players.

Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s discuss several AFC West players you should target and avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.

AFC West Fantasy Football Targets

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

It was a disappointing 2023 in terms of fantasy football production for Mahomes. He finished the season as the overall QB8 and only the QB12 in fantasy points per game (PPG), per FantasyPros. The team’s lack of receiving options behind Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice was partly to blame for Mahomes' poor fantasy finish. Things will be different in that area this year as Kansas City added Marquise Brown in free agency and speedster Xavier Worthy in the NFL Draft.

Xavier Worthy TOUCHDOWN!!!

HORNS 38-6 pic.twitter.com/xwlyUjd7qR

— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) September 24, 2023

With a new arsenal of weapons at his disposal, Mahomes is once again set up for a huge campaign. An overall QB1 finish is within the range of outcomes. With an FFPC ADP of 47th overall, fantasy gamers are getting a nice discount on the Chiefs signal-caller this year. Managers would be wise to buy the dip as the odds are good Mahomes will be more expensive in 2025 drafts.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Pacheco is coming off a career year as he set personal bests in rushing yards, touchdowns, receptions, and receiving yards. His underlying metrics were also quite strong. He finished 11th in Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), ninth in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 14th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Breakaway Percentage. By all accounts, Pacheco is just a good back.

Isiah Pacheco!! ✅✅✅#GamblingX #Jets #Chiefs

pic.twitter.com/Y4CENvI8F5

— 8 Ball Sports (@8_Ball_Sports) October 2, 2023

Kansas City’s primary pass-catching back, Jerick McKinnon, is no longer on the roster. While McKinnon missed several games last year due to injury, Pacheco filled the pass-catching role nicely. He finished the year with 44 receptions and showed he has plenty of pass-catching chops. With McKinnon gone, there is no one else on the roster who poses a real threat for touches. This is now Pacheco’s backfield.

We have long coveted backs in an Andy Reid offense and have, at times, elevated less talented players due to their perceived role in the offense. (We won’t name names, so we will just refer to this player as Glyde Bedwards-Melaire.) However, Pacheco is actually good. And yet, a bell-cow back in an Andy Reid offense led by Patrick Mahomes only has an FFPC ADP of 37th overall? Yes, this is a player you should want on your roster.

Isiah Pacheco lines up in wildcat and takes it in himself for 6️⃣☝️

Chiefs lead the Raiders 7-3

pic.twitter.com/lKgDpgkhhk

— Last Take™ (@TheRealLastTake) December 25, 2023

Pacheco is a real candidate for 300+ touches, and it would not be surprising if he again sets career highs across the board. He makes for a fine investment as a high-end RB2 or back-end RB1.

Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

White was arguably the biggest winner of the offseason. The club opted to let longtime starter Josh Jacobs walk and only added Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube to the backfield. White enters training camp as the Raiders’ clear lead back.

He also played quite well in limited action last year. White finished 14th in RYOE/ATT and second in Rush Percentage Over Expected (ROE%). He averaged over 114 scrimmage yards and 23 touches per game while filling in for Jacobs. That kind of volume would put White on the RB1 radar.

Zamir White with a huge run!
pic.twitter.com/ECJJW6F5rl

— Walter 👋🤖 (@WalterPicksApp) December 25, 2023

Gamers don’t have to spend a high pick on the third-year back. He's consistently going in the Round 6/7 range of drafts. There is some risk as he’s likely to be replaced if he struggles. However, we don’t have a large sample size indicating he will struggle, so this feels like a different situation when comparing it to someone like Alexander Mattison from last year. White might just be a good player. If he is, then he’s one of the best bargains available in drafts.

Kimani Vidal/J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards, RBs, Los Angeles Chargers

New Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh prefers a strong running game, and his hiring brought speculation the offense would be heading in that direction. This was all but confirmed when Harbaugh hired former Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, to run the offense in Los Angeles. Roman previously worked under Harbaugh while the latter was head coach of the San Francisco 49ers from 2011-2014. Here are the rush rates for those 49ers teams and where they ranked in the league:

Based on Harbaugh and Roman’s previous work together, there will be plenty of rushing opportunities in this offense.

Edwards is the presumed RB1 as the new regime handpicked him and has mentioned how they see him as a true three-down workhorse. However, he picked up an unknown injury during the offseason and is now a bit of a question mark entering training camp. Dobbins was always a hyper-efficient player with the Ravens but has major durability concerns, and Vidal is a sixth-round rookie.

There are question marks surrounding all of these backs, but they can each thrive if they are given RB1 volume. Whoever emerges as the lead back is the player that fantasy gamers need to target. Luckily, none are expensive in drafts. Edwards is going the highest at 111th overall in FFPC leagues with Dobbins and Vidal going about 20 picks later. Monitor any news on this backfield throughout training camp and the run-up to the season, and be ready to pull the trigger on whoever prevails as the RB1.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos

McLaughlin flashed big-time upside in limited action as a rookie. PFF graded him as its 16th-highest rusher, and he also finished seventh in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Among backs with 65 attempts, McLaughlin finished fifth in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT), per Fantasy Points Data Suite. There is a lot to like about the second-year back heading into the 2024 season.

Jaleel McLaughlin scores his second touchdown of the year, this time off a screen pass from QB Russell Wilson pic.twitter.com/A7hVnefSyp

— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) October 1, 2023

Running backs have always been heavily involved in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. After a disappointing season from Javonte Williams, McLaughlin may command more touches this year. If he can carve out a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles-type role, he will be a huge asset in PPR leagues.

Much like last offseason, though, McLaughlin is already turning heads.

#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Jaleel McLaughlin:

“He’s here at 5:15, even in the offseason. First one here, running in the weight room, and by the time he’s at breakfast and most people are arriving, he’s put in a good hour and a half’s worth of work. It’s just the way he’s wired,… pic.twitter.com/qMk17cfd6h

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024

He is the exact type of player who can help you win your league if he hits. Draft him and reap the rewards.

AFC West Fantasy Football Fades

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos

Sutton enjoyed a nice 2023 season that saw him score a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns.

Courtland Sutton's touchdown catch from Russell Wilson against the Bills is still the most improbable completion in the NFL this entire season.

It only had a 3.2% chance of being completed, per @ZebraSports.pic.twitter.com/177ujJCOTD

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) December 23, 2023

While that was a highlight, he did so on only 58 receptions and failed to break 800 receiving yards. That incredibly high touchdown rate is likely to regress. Unless Sutton draws targets at a higher clip than we’ve previously seen, he looks to be heading for a rough 2024.

In fact, since his breakout in 2019, Sutton has never had more than 62 receptions or 829 receiving yards in a single season. The fact is he's been a very mediocre player. While some will highlight Jerry Jeudy’s departure to Cleveland as a reason to buy Sutton, the club also added rookie Troy Franklin in the 2024 NFL Draft. Second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr. is supposedly in line for a bigger role as well. None of these players really stand out as especially talented receivers, though, so it’s highly likely that targets are evenly distributed among them. This would make it difficult for any player to be a major fantasy contributor.

Sutton is not a strong separator and had an outlier touchdown season. He's a prime candidate for regression and gamers should steer clear. There are better ways to attack the Denver receiving room if you believe in this offense.

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

While Adams had another strong season in 2023, there are several reasons to be concerned about his 2024. Las Vegas figures to have a run-oriented offense and a Gardner Minshew II/Aidan O’Connell quarterback combination doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. He still drew targets at a high rate last year despite poor quarterback play. So that was good to see. However, there’s also the fact that Adams turns 32 years old during the season. We have seen players drop off fast during their 30s, and there’s no telling when it will happen with Adams. Father Time always wins.

It just feels like the deck is stacked against Adams this year. While he’s long been a top fantasy producer, we must recognize the reality of Adams' situation. A second-round price tag is a high ask considering everything surrounding him. It would be easier to get on board if he were going round or two later. While Adams remains a talented player, the price tag is a little too expensive.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert’s 2023 came to an end when he suffered a fractured right index finger during a Week 14 loss to the Denver Broncos. Things will look much different for Herbert when he returns to the field in 2024, as new coach Jim Harbaugh looks to revamp the offense.

We previously mentioned the rushing rates under Harbaugh and Roman when discussing the Los Angeles backfield earlier in this article. Let’s take things a step further and examine the number of passing attempts per year across all 10 seasons of Roman’s career as a play-caller:

As San Francisco 49ers Offensive Coordinator

2011- 451
2012- 436
2013- 417
2014- 487

As Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator

2015- 465
2016- 474

As Baltimore Ravens Offensive Coordinator

2019- 440
2020- 406
2021- 611
2022- 488

Outside of an outlier 2022 season, none of Roman’s offenses eclipsed 500 passing attempts. This is not great news for Herbert. He will need to be uber-efficient or throw touchdowns at an incredibly high rate to deliver a strong fantasy finish. It’s possible given how talented he is, but the offensive weapons needed to facilitate such an event don’t appear to be in place.

In all likelihood, this offense is going to throw the football significantly less, and that will put a hard cap on Herbert’s ceiling. He remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league and any franchise would be lucky to have him as their starter. When it comes to scoring fantasy points, though, 2024 could be a rough year.

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

There is hope in some fantasy circles that with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out of the picture, Palmer can emerge as Los Angeles’ lead receiver. The problem is that Palmer has never been a particularly good player. He has never eclipsed 800 receiving yards or had more than four receiving touchdowns in any of his three NFL seasons. Here are Palmer’s finishes in several advanced metrics from the last two years, courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite:

2023 (Among 104 receivers with 300 routes run)

Targets Per Route Run (TPRR): 67th
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): 37th
Team Target Share (TGT %): 61st
Air Yards Share (AY Share): 41st

2022 (Among 101 receivers with 300 routes run)

TPRR: 67th
YPRR: 67th
Target Share: 61st
AY Share: 53rd

Overall, this data suggests Palmer is nothing more than a middle-of-the-pack receiver. Los Angeles also drafted rookie Ladd McConkey with the 34th overall pick in April’s draft. This speaks to the new regime’s thoughts on Palmer as the team’s lead receiver. We also must consider the aforementioned issue with passing volume and how it will impact Palmer. A mediocre receiver in a low-volume passing attack isn’t someone you typically want to target in fantasy football.

Palmer has not been anything special thus far in his career, and the new regime has already handpicked its own WR1. There is nothing to be excited about for Palmer’s 2024 other than opportunity, and he has not proven that he is talented enough to take advantage of said opportunity. Don’t be fooled into thinking Palmer is some kind of value. Look for other options on draft day.

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