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NFL free agency seems like a lifetime ago, but there is but one big move that we have yet to dissect in our Free Agency Fallout series, and that needs to be rectified immediately. While most fantasy managers were confused and others described it as a lateral move, there are reasons to believe it could be a positive one for this club moving forward.
Here are some of the previous fantasy football outlook articles covering some of the biggest NFL free agency moves this offseason:
- DJ Moore's Trade to Chicago
- Derek Carr's Signing in New Orleans – How Does This Affect Carr and Chris Olave?
- Miles Sanders Signing with the Carolina Panthers
- Aaron Rodgers Trade to the Jets and the Impact it Has on Him and Garrett Wilson
- Darren Waller Trade to the New York Giants
- Brandin Cooks Trade to the Dallas Cowboys
- Damien Harris Signs with Buffalo Forming a Running Back Committee with James Cook
- Devin Singletary Signs with the Houston Texans: What is his value and that of Dameon Pierce?
- D'Andre Swift Trade and Rashaad Penny Signing with the Philadelphia Eagles
- Houston Texans Passing Outlook with Signings of Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, and draft selection of C.J. Stroud
When the Las Vegas Raiders released Derek Carr, the connection between head coach Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t be contained. In the end, that’s exactly what happened. Now, the Raiders look to begin their 2023 season with the former San Francisco signal-caller behind center. What does that mean for the team’s pass-catchers? Let’s dive in, and please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.
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The New Look Las Vegas Raiders Offense
Releasing Derek Carr and bringing in Jimmy Garoppolo wasn’t the only big move for the Raiders’ new offense. They also traded their star tight end, Darren Waller, to the New York Giants. Before that, they brought in another player Josh McDaniels had a connection to, former Patriot receiver Jakobi Meyers.
Las Vegas was busy in free agency, also signing veteran tight ends O.J. Howard and Austin Hooper to help replace Waller. However, when Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer fell to the team in the second round of the 2023 draft, they opted to select a long-term solution for their tight end position. There will be a lot of new faces in Las Vegas, but the offense looks like it should once again be a strength of the team.
Mayer was one of the most productive tight ends in this year’s draft. Over his last two years at Notre Dame, he finished with 205 targets, 138 receptions, 1,649 yards, and 16 touchdowns. He finished with a strong 26.0% target share, finishing as the team’s leading receiver in both seasons.
The former Patriot receiver is oftentimes overlooked. This isn’t necessarily his fault, but over the past few years, the Patriots haven’t been very successful. They've become a more run-heavy offense, which has limited the success of their pass-catchers. However, Meyers has stood above the rest.
Over the past three seasons, Meyers has averaged 6.7 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 53.3 yards per game. Over 17 games, those averages would amount to 115 targets, 78 receptions, and 906 yards in a season. Pretty impressive considering the dreadfulness of the New England offense over that time period.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Derek Carr
There has been much made about this move by the Raiders, but in the end, the switch saves the team a decent amount of cash. While there’s no way to put a value on the Kyle Shanahan effect, these two quarterbacks haven’t been all that different statistically, if we want to be honest.
| QB | CPG | PAPG | Comp % | YPA | PAPG | TDPG | TD % | Int. PG | QB Rating |
| D, Carr (2015-2022) | 22.6 | 34.5 | 65.5% | 7.3 | 253.5 | 1.55 | 4.5% | 0.69 | 93.8 |
| J, Garoppolo (SF) | 19.4 | 28.6 | 67.6% | 8.3 | 238.6 | 1.44 | 5.0% | 0.74 | 99.2 |
In the table above, you will find Jimmy G’s stats per game from his time with San Francisco. He only started two games with New England. However, it wouldn’t be fair to give Jimmy G. a learning curve, so I eliminated Carr’s rookie season and instead started his per-game averages in 2015 when he made his first Pro Bowl.
As you can see, a lot of their numbers are incredibly similar. Carr has some of the counting stats, such as passing yards per game and touchdowns per game, but it’s actually Garoppolo who has the higher yards per attempt and touchdown percentage. How much is that due to Shanahan? We’ll never know, but on paper, these quarterbacks look incredibly similar. For the Raiders, saving a bunch of cash and still winding up with a very comparable player is a win for the long haul. For the newbie pass-catchers and Adams (who was with the team only for 2022), it might also be an upgrade in the short-term as well.
Carr’s 2022 season was supposed to be the best of his career. The team had traded for a superstar receiver and his best friend, Davante Adams, while also hiring a new head coach and offensive guru, Josh McDaniels. They also had Waller and Hunter Renfrow. This was finally going to be his year. Absolutely none of that happened. In fact, it was some of the worst football we’ve seen from Carr in several seasons. He had his fewest yards-per-game average since 2017 and the highest interception rate of his career.
His completion percentage dropped 7.6 percentage points from 2021, which all culminated in his worst quarterback rating since his rookie season in 2014. This is why it’s not a stretch to say that Adams is actually getting a quarterback upgrade in Jimmy G. than what he got from Carr in their lone season together.
| QBs | Completion % | On-Target % | TD % | Int. % | YPA | YAC/Comp | IAY/PA | QB Rating |
| D, Carr (2022) | 60.8% | 71.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 7.0 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 86.3 |
| J, Garoppolo (2019-2022) | 68.0% | 80.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 8.4 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 99.4 |
The table above looks at Jimmy G’s averages from the last four years vs. Derek Carr’s 2022 season. As you can see, if Garoppolo performs at or even close to his per-game averages from the last four seasons, it’ll be a significant quarterback upgrade from how Carr played last season.
While most of the numbers aren’t too different, there are three that drop off the page, and they’re all fairly intertwined. Jimmy G’s completion percentage and on-target throw percentage are substantially higher than Carr’s. However, when we look at their intended air yards per attempt, we find that Carr’s is significantly higher than Jimmy G’s.
All of this makes sense. A shorter depth of target equals easier throws, and easier throws tend to be completed at much higher rates. For fantasy purposes, this is a huge difference to pay attention to.
2023 Fantasy Football Expectations
The switch from Carr to Jimmy G. is going to be a double-edged sword for fantasy managers, but in the end, they might very well be happier with what Garoppolo provides. Carr was very boom or bust last season, and that affected his pass-catchers as well.
Carr had five games with one or fewer touchdowns and four games with fewer than 200 yards. In eight contests, Carr failed to complete at least 60% of his passes. Garoppolo is likely to provide a lot more consistency, albeit with a lower ceiling.
Adams had five games with less than 10 half-PPR points, which included three games with less than five points. However, he also had five games with 25 or more points and two contests where he eclipsed 30. While he averaged 16.3 half-PPR PPG, his median was just 13.5.
| Time | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TDPG | Y/Tgt | Catch % | aDot |
| 2018-2021 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 93.1 | 0.73 | 8.6 | 70.4% | 10.0 |
| 2022 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 89.2 | 0.82 | 8.4 | 55.6% | 11.8 |
Above shows what Adams’ statistics looked like from 2018, his first true breakout season in the NFL, up until 2021, which was his last year before he was traded to the Raiders. While most of his numbers look very similar, you can see a drastic decline in his catch percentage, which coordinates with a significant uptick in his average depth of target. While Garoppolo may not help Adams achieve as many ceiling weeks, he’s likely to be a much more consistent player.
Fantasy managers should be expecting Adams and Meyers to be the primary starters in two wide receiver sets, with Renfrow being used solely as the slot receiver in an 11-personnel. It’s also possible Renfrow and Meyers share slot duties in the 11-personnel. The addition of Meyers is going to hurt Renfrow’s production because what they each do well overlaps quite a bit. Unfortunately, Meyers is simply better at a lot of it.
Over the past three years, Meyers has target shares of 22.0%, 24.4%, and 23.2%. Compare that to Renfrow’s target shares of 15.3%, 21.7%, and 15.2%. During this period, Meyers had a 2.06 yards-per-route-run average compared to Renfrow’s 1.77 average. Meyers has never played with a player of Adams’ caliber, however.
| Player | TS % | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
| D, Adams | 27.9% | 164 | 111 | 1,394 | 11 |
| J, Meyers | 18.0% | 106 | 70 | 805 | 5 |
| H, Renfrow | 13.1% | 77 | 52 | 519 | 3 |
| TEs | 15.5% | 91 | 56 | 633 | 4 |
| RBs | 16.8% | 99 | 74 | 552 | 2 |
| Depth Players | 8.3% | 49 | 29 | 336 | 1 |
The table above depicts what I believe the Raiders’ passing attack will look like in 2023. Fantasy managers should expect Adams and Meyers to lead the way and be the primary No. 1 and No. 2 target earners for the team. The numbers above represent a slight decrease in the half-PPR PPG average for Adams, down to 15.3. Last year, this would have ranked as the WR6. He’s currently being drafted as the WR7 on Underdog right now.
For Meyers, his half-PPR PPG average would be 8.5 from the numbers above. He’s currently being drafted as the WR54, but an 8.5 half-PPR average would’ve been WR41 last season. He’s a fine addition at his current cost despite being devalued a bit due to his lack of ceiling, which is justified. It’s hard to envision where Meyers will become a true difference-maker, but he has all the makings of a quality depth player for fantasy this season.
Fantasy managers shouldn’t be concerned with any of the other pass-catchers here. Michael Mayer may be worth a dart throw in deeper leagues. It appears the Raiders may take a tight end-by-committee approach this season, which is going to negatively impact the effect he can have. However, Mayer’s talent far exceeds that of Hooper and Howard, giving him a chance to separate from those two as the season moves along. Still, it’s going to be difficult for Mayer to assume the kind of volume he needs to be fantasy-relevant with Adams, Meyers, and Renfrow healthy.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s price is likely to drop in recent weeks with the news surrounding his injury waiver clause. That could allow the Raiders to cut bait with him if he doesn’t pass his physical, which he failed to do in March.
For the most part, I agree with this tweet. There’s been no notion from the Raiders’ organization that they’re concerned about Jimmy G’s availability this season.
The numbers above would give Garoppolo 586 attempts, 392 completions (66.8%), and 4,242 yards. This represents a 7.23-yards-per-attempt average, down from the 8.3 he’s averaged the last four seasons. It also gives him 26 touchdowns with a 4.4% touchdown rate, which is lower than his 5.1% four-year average and Carr’s 4.8% rate from last season.
Carr and Garoppolo’s interception rate from the table above was 2.8%, which would result in Jimmy G. throwing 16 interceptions this upcoming season. For his career, he averages three yards rushing per game and is a complete non-factor. If we give him 50 rushing yards, one score, and two lost fumbles, he’d finish with 244.28 points and a 14.36 PPR average. This would’ve finished as the QB24 last season. If he’s able to take care of the ball better and stays healthy, he could provide poor QB2 numbers at a QB3 price.
Davante Adams, however, continues to be the only player fantasy managers need to be concerned with here. He looks poised to once again be one of the most heavily targeted players in the NFL and is a lock for another top 10 fantasy WR season.
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