Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Risers - Week 3

January 6, 2021

Andrew Ericksen analyzes NBA risers for fantasy basketball dynasty leagues. Read his Week 3 fantasy rundown on dynasty forwards, guards and centers.

We’ve made it two weeks into the season – Woohoo!

Hopefully dynasty managers aren’t pulling the plug on the 2020-21 season and looking ahead to next year quite yet!

But for those who are – and for everyone else thinking both short-term and long-term – here are four guys who have increased their long-term valuation over the past week. Two of whom could prove to be significant difference-makers for fantasy leagues as soon as this year.

Jerami Grant (F, DET)

Detroit Pistons forward Jerami Grant signed one of the most eyebrow-raising contracts of the offseason. He joined the Pistons on a three-year, $60 million deal. While Grant had surely proven to be a fantastic supporting player thus far in his career, the amount of the contract and the fit on the Pistons just didn’t seem right. The Pistons are very much in the midst of a rebuild and Grant, at 26 years old, is right in the thick of his prime and had served as a key cog for a title contender for over three years before making this year’s shift. He seemed destined to continue in a similar role for a title-hopeful team before the Pistons jumped in.

Grant’s main draw for both NBA purposes and fantasy purposes over the years has been his defensive contributions. So it’s no surprise to see him averaging 1.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game through seven games this year. What is surprising, however, is how well he’s adapted to the substantially increased role he’s had offensively.

Entering this year, Grant had never attempted more than 10.3 field goals per game. That career-high clip came in 2018-19 with the Oklahoma City Thunder, when he averaged a career-best 13.6 points per game. This year, through seven games, Grant is averaging 23.0 points per game on 18.6 field goal attempts per game. He’s been relatively efficient, shooting 44.6% from the field, and he’s knocking down 2.7 threes per game and hitting 86.7% of his free throw attempts – remarkable considering he’s a 67.3% career free-throw shooter.

Given his defensive expertise, if Grant can keep up anything close to the scoring numbers he’s at right now throughout the season, he’s going to be a top-25 player and he’ll likely go into next year as a potential third-round pick in redraft leagues. Whether or not he remains on the Pistons through the length of his contract as the team continues its rebuild, he’s begun to show through the early going this year that he has much more to offer offensively than we thought going into the year. Just ask Daniel Theis how Grant’s offensive game is looking:

Donte Divincenzo (G, MIL)

Following up on Grant, here’s the other player on this week’s list who could give a big boost to fantasy managers as soon as this year.

Last year, Milwaukee Bucks guard Donte DiVincenzo cemented his place in the team’s rotation as a solid shooter and budding playmaker who could also contribute adequately on the defensive end. This year so far, he’s taken all the skillsets he flashed last year up a notch.

Through seven games this year, DiVincenzo is averaging 12.3 points, 2.9 threes and 1.7 steals per game while shooting 51.6% from the field and 55.6% from three. Last year, he averaged 9.2 points, 1.3 threes and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 45.5% from the field and 33.6% from three. He’s only seen his playing time increase by about one minute per game from 23.0 in 2019-20 to 24.1 this year, so it’s not just a matter of increased playing time, it’s a strong step forward in his development.

The Bucks were averaging 40 three-point attempts per game through their first seven games, the fourth most three-point attempts per game in the league. This is a team that has shown it wants to shoot threes at an extremely high rate over the years. DiVincenzo has been the team’s most efficient three-point shooter by a wide margin this year and his 5.1 three-point attempts per game have been second on the team behind Khris Middleton (5.3), who is shooting 48.6% from three.

DiVincenzo is in a great spot to be a solid contributor for the Bucks for several years to come. He’s signed through 2022-23 and should just be entering his prime as he turns 24 years old at the end of the month. The Bucks just locked up their star Giannis Antetokounmpo for the next six seasons, so DiVincenzo should expect to see plenty of open looks from three in the years to come as opposing teams center in on Giannis.

Josh Jackson (G/F, DET)

Yes, that’s not a typo. Somehow we ended up with two Detroit Pistons on this week’s dynasty risers list. But don’t get too excited Pistons fans. Unfortunately, the inclusion of Grant and guard/forward Josh Jackson is really just an indication of the ample opportunities on the floundering Pistons, rather than a sign of the budding of a long-struggling franchise.

While Grant’s contract with the Pistons was a major headliner due to the size of it, Jackson’s was the complete opposite. The 2017 fourth overall pick signed a quiet, two-year, $10 million deal with the Pistons this offseason after spending one disappointing season with the Memphis Grizzlies.

So far this year, Jackson has proven that he still has remnants of the tantalizing skillset he offered coming out of Kansas back in 2017. That should seem like a foolish statement for any 23-year-old who hasn’t had any major injuries, but still, in today’s fantasy basketball landscape, we’re often quick to write off players who don’t excel right from the get-go. So the fact that Jackson still has a chance to “save” his NBA career is worth a reminder.

Here he is flashing his ball skills and his ability to finish at the rim:

Through six games this year, Jackson is averaging 15.5 points per game to go along with 1.5 threes, 1.0 steals and 0.7 blocks per game. He had a four-game streak where he recorded both a steal and a block that was snapped this past Sunday, when he played limited minutes against the Boston Celtics after injuring his ankle. Jackson’s been efficient from the floor this year, shooting 49.3%, which is a big increase on his career field goal percentage of 42%.

Jackson has the chance to offer a lot of low-end versatility over the next few years, providing a combination of threes, steals and blocks. Offensive efficiency and playing time are the two biggest keys to Jackson sustaining fantasy value. If he can remain a prominent rotation player, whether it be on Detroit or elsewhere, and knockdown over 45% of his shots from the field, he’s going to be worth rostering in all standard fantasy leagues.

Jalen Brunson (PG, DAL)

Dallas Mavericks point guard Jalen Brunson had gotten off to a somewhat slow and quiet start to the year, but that all went away quickly when he filled in as the team’s starting point guard with Luka Doncic out this past Sunday against the Chicago Bulls. Brunson went on to score 31 points on 11-of-17 shooting with three threes, seven assists, five rebounds, four turnovers and a steal. He also shot 6-for-6 from the line.

Through seven games, Brunson has registered a PER of 20.15, which is second on the team to only Doncic (24.23), excluding players averaging fewer than 10 minutes per game. But you don’t really need to dig as deep as PER to make an argument that Brunson has been the second-best player on the Mavericks so far this year, despite only seeing a shade under 20 minutes per game.

Only two Mavericks – apart from Doncic – have averaged more points per game this year than Brunson: Tim Hardaway Jr. (17.0) and Josh Richardson (13.7). Hardaway has done little more than score the rock, averaging just 4.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists over nearly 30 minutes per game and Josh Richardson has struggled with fouls (3.7 per game) and has shot just 42.5% from the field.

Brunson, meanwhile, has averaged 11.7 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. He’s also averaged 3.6 assists per game and 2.6 rebounds per game. His numbers per 36 minutes equate to 22.0 points, 6.7 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 threes and 1.1 steals per game. Plus, he’s shooting 88.9% from the field.

It’s going to be hard for Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle to keep Brunson off the court if he keeps playing this well and the rest of the Mavericks keep faltering. Plenty of teams across the league have found ways to utilize two point guards at once in the same way that the Mavericks could attempt with Doncic and Brunson. Either way, the 24-year-old, highly-competitive Brunson looks like he’s taking a step forward this year and is someone who needs to be rostered or at least monitored in most dynasty leagues. He could be a great source of points, assists and steals if the proper minutes come to him.

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