RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are here for Gameweek 9 after an eventful International Break!!! Today’s slate will feature two favorites, Liverpool -275 and Chelsea -120. This slate will feature many pickem matches and it could end up being one of the lower scoring slates this season. I will guide you through this five-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
Please Be Advised: Due to the quick turnaround of gameweeks, there can be an increased risk of rest for players. This write-up does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 9
[H] Bournemouth (+230) vs [A] Brentford (+115): Total: u2.5
Both clubs are coming into this match with identical records over their last five matches in all competitions. However, Brentford is still the superior team when it comes to the offense with 9 more goals than Bournemouth. On the other side of the pitch, the Cherries who struggled defensively at the beginning of the season are starting to hunker down, conceding only 3 goals over their last 3 matches. Despite the turn in form for Bournemouth and playing at home, Brentford will still have the upper hand and it is a matter of them playing consistent football for 90 minutes.
Expected Outcome: 1-0 Brentford
Forwards
Bryan Mbeumo-DK $6.8K || FD $16
Despite playing in the shadow of his teammate Ivan Toney-DK $9K || FD $20, Mbuemo has still been relevant enough thanks to his peripherals playing on the wing. In 7 appearances so far this season, he has 2 goals, 14 shots, 7 created chances, 21 crosses, 9 corners, 2 tackles and 2 interceptions. Brentford love to attack down the flank and if they are to generate any type of offense against one of the worst defenses in the league, Mbeumo will be a part of it.
Midfielders
Marcus Tavernier-DK $6.4K || FD $13
If you do not want to pay for the questionably high salary for Tavernier, you can drop down to Mathias Jensen-DK $5.4K || FD $14 from Brentford who also takes set-pieces. Tavernier is the midfield guru for the Cherries, running all set-pieces and controlling the pace of play. Due to the lack of offense Bournemouth possesses, Tavernier has yet to have a big performance, albeit his plethora of peripherals each match. Tavernier does have the advantage though playing at home and the International Break to provide some much-needed rest. If Bournemouth is to generate any sort of attack, Tavernier will be in the center of it. In 7 matches, he has 7 shots, 10 created chances, 36 crosses, 17 corners, 10 tackles and 5 clearances.
Defenders
Aaron Hickey-DK $4.2K || FD $7
If my numbers are correct, this is the third time Hickey has made it into the article and he has yet to disappoint. The wingback is the ideal middle of the salary range defender who does a little bit of everything. Not only does he generate massive amounts of peripherals, but he plays a solid two-way game, offering slight upside. Through 7 appearances, he has 3 shots, 1 created chance, 11 crosses, 19 tackles, 7 interceptions, 8 clearances and 2 blocks.
[H] Crystal Palace (+340) vs [A] Chelsea (-120): Total: o2.5
The Blues have beaten Crystal Palace in their last 10 meetings and in the most recent three meetings, they have shut out the Eagles, outsourcing them 6-0. Chelsea has yet to fulfill their potential this season and it caused their manager Thomas Tuchel to be sacked and replaced by Graham Potter from Brighton & Hove Albion. However, things did not go as expected for Chelsea in Potter’s first match at the helm, losing 1-0 to Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League. After an extended resting period for most of Chelsea’s starting XI, expect a full-on performance for Graham Potter’s first game in charge in domestic play.
Expected Outcome: Chelsea 2-0
Forwards
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang-DK $4.9K || FD $19
Aubameyang’s salary is criminally low and it would be unsurprising to see his ownership in all contests north of 20 percent. The striker has proven himself everywhere except for the Premier League and he is getting a second opportunity with Chelsea, after failing with Arsenal. The striker is also playing in a formation that is friendly to his play style – lots of crossing to him –. Aubameyang will surely be in the center of the action this Saturday and it would not be out of the question that he pockets his first goal in his return to the Premier League. In 2 matches, he has 1 assist, 3 shots, 1 chance created and 1 cross.
Midfielders
Raheem Sterling-DK $8.3K || FD $19
Due to the lack of consistency of set-pieces for the Blues, we will take a look at the scorching hot Sterling. The winger has been the focal point for Chelsea until now with new arrival Aubameyang waiting to make his season debut in the top flight. Sterling has been lights out over the past few matches, scoring 3 goals during that period. Now he will play alongside Aubameyang in what could be a featured front-three in the Premier League. In Sterling’s 8 appearances this season, he has 4 goals, 1 assist, 13 shots, 9 created chances, 11 crosses and 6 tackles.
Defenders
Reece James-DK $6.8K || FD $15
Depending on the contest selection and your preferred build, James could be highly owned this Saturday. The wingback continues to be one of the most consistent players for Chelsea and new bench boss Graham Potter looks to keep running a formation that suits James’s abilities on the pitch. It also seems that James is starting to eat into the set-pieces, taking a share for himself. Depending on the possible addition of teammate Ben Chilwell on the left flank, the majority of the play is expected to go through James on the right flank. In 7 appearances so far this season, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 10 shots, 8 created chances, 48 crosses, 14 corners, 14 tackles, 5 interceptions, 6 clearances and 2 blocks.
[H] Fulham (+200) vs [A] Newcastle United (+130) Total: u2.5
Both clubs are struggling to find consistency and success in the same phrase. Newcastle has drawn 5 of their first 6 matches in domestic play and Fulham has lost 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions. Fulham has also been outscored 9-7 in that timeframe with their most recent match being a 3-2 comeback win at Nottingham Forest. Fulham’s win also came with an assist from their newest arrival Willian, who made his return to the Premier League. This looks to be a tightly contested match with both clubs missing a few key pieces in the starting XI.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Aleksandar Mitrovic-DK $8K || FD $21
Mitrovic has not shied away since his return to the top flight, amassing 6 goals in 7 appearances. The striker is one of the hottest forwards in the league, despite some of the goals coming on penalties. Mitrovic has 31 shots, 6 created chances, 1 cross, 8 tackles, 1 interception, 8 clearances and 3 blocks in that timeframe. Not only does Mitrovic score goals, but he also comes back on defense to help which provides him further upside on FanDuel’s platform – they value clearances –. However, his 4.4 shots per match are enough to warrant the striker.
Midfielders
Ryan Fraser-DK $4.1K || FD $10
Fraser is expected to fill in for injured teammate Allan Saint-Maximin once again this Saturday. The midfielder provides a nice pay-down option to roster some of the higher-priced studs from the Liverpool match or Chelsea match. In 5 matches, Fraser has 6 shots, 4 created chances, 10 crosses, 2 corners, 2 tackles, 2 clearances and 1 block. He is not a flashy player by any means, but he will provide what is needed to reach value.
Defenders
Kieran Trippier-DK $6.7K || FD $14
The salary is not quite ideal, but he is at least playing in a somewhat positive matchup. Fulham sits middle of the league in crosses against and Trippier not only crosses in bunches, but he takes the majority of set-pieces as well. Through 7 appearances this season, Trippier has 1 goal, 5 shots, 13 created chances, 66 crosses, 35 corners, 8 tackles, 9 interceptions, 16 clearances and 4 blocks. There is no other defender on the slate today, that will bring this much value to a lineup, especially on FanDuel.
[H] Liverpool (-275) vs [A] Brighton & Hove Albion (+700) Total: u2.5
Are you ready for this?! But really though, you are not ready for what I am about to tell you. Liverpool is currently in 8th place, while Brighton is currently in 4th place! Brighton is in 4th place! However, things may change depending on what new bench boss Roberto De Zerbi does, now that Graham Potter has left to take over Chelsea. In the last four meetings between these two clubs: 1-1 Draw, Brighton 1-0 win, 2-2 Draw and Liverpool 2-0 win. Brighton has always posed a significant threat to the Reds and the same could be seen again on Saturday. Liverpool will have their hopes up however after they pulled off a massive win against Ajax right before International Break.
Expected Outcome: Liverpool 2-1
Forwards
Mohamed Salah-DK $9.3K || FD $22
Not only is coming off a big performance prior to International Break, but Egypt elected to rest him during the period as well, so he will be coming into this match fresh. The forward in 8 appearances, has 3 goals, 2 assists, 22 shots, 26 created chances, 11 crosses, 4 tackles and 2 interceptions. Salah continues to be the focal point of the offense for Liverpool and the addition of healthy teammates in the front will only help him achieve value against a rather stingy defense.
Midfielders
Alexis Mac Allister-DK $5.8K || FD $15
Mac Allister is also coming off a major performance prior to the International Break, where he netted a brace in a 5-2 win over Leicester City. The midfielder is a true x-factor for the club and he continues to co-run the entire pace of play and offense alongside teammate Pascal Gross. Through 6 appearances this season, Mac Allister has 4 goals, 11 shots, 1 created chance, 1 cross, 1 corner, 20 tackles, 9 interceptions, 4 clearances and 1 block. Despite Liverpool typically being a dominant team, they have shown many weaknesses so far this season and at the rate, Mac Allister is playing, he may exploit them at the weekend.
Defenders
Trent Alexander-Arnold-DK $6.1K || FD $14
You know the season hasn’t been normal when Alexander-Arnold’s salary on DraftKings is at $6.1K. The wingback is known for his aggressive style of play on the right flank and for his majority of set-pieces role for Liverpool. However, Alexander-Arnold has been known for his lack of consistency and questionable defensive play so far this season and the fantasy point production is showing it. Through six matches of domestic play, he has managed to see north of 15 points, just twice. In 8 appearances in all competitions, he has 1 goal, 12 shots, 21 created chances, 80 crosses, 29 corners, 14 tackles, 6 interceptions and 4 blocks. As of right now, the defender’s peripherals are lower than last season’s averages and there is only up from here.
[H] Southampton (+115) vs [A] Everton (+230) Total: u2.5
Southampton has won 5 of their last 6 home matches against Everton and Everton has lost 18 of their last 19 away matches. It is a clear sign of who has the edge in this meeting. However, Southampton is coming off back-to-back losses to Aston Villa and Wolverhampton, albeit both of them being away. Meanwhile, Everton is coming off a big 1-0 win against West Ham that followed a string of 3 straight draws – one of them was a 0-0 draw against Liverpool –. Everton is now undefeated in 5 matches in all competitions. Southampton continues to struggle offensively with the lack of finishers at their disposal and the Toffees just brought in Neal Maupay from Brighton in hopes to shore up their own attacking woes. This will be a fixture worth watching and the shares could be spoiled.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Neal Maupay-DK $5.7K || FD $17
Maupay has been an instant fan favorite with the Toffees after starting his first two matches and scoring 1 goal. To put that into further context, Maupay now has a 20 percent share of the scoring for Everton in 2 matches. The Toffees are going to do everything in their power to get this man the ball. He has proven multiple times that he can produce with any club in any league and this is his tallest task yet. However, for the friendly salary, his chances of reaching value are worth justifying in an overall positive matchup. In 2 appearances, he has 1 goal, 7 shots, 4 created chances and 1 tackle.
Midfielders
James Ward-Prowse-DK $9.5K || FD $17
Despite Ward-Prowse being thrown further back in the formation as a center defensive-midfielder now, he is still producing just as well. The midfielder is the face of Southampton and the pace of play and each attack runs through him. Everton is starting to show a jump in form, but Ward-Prowse still has a chance to reach his ceiling in this meeting. Through 7 matches, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 7 shots, 16 created chances, 62 crosses, 28 corners, 14 tackles, 10 interceptions and 6 clearances.
Defenders
Seamus Coleman-DK $2.9K || FD $9
It is almost Halloween, right? Well, it must be because Coleman looks to have risen from the grave! The once mainstay in the starting XI wingback has been cast aside for many others since. However, with teammate Nathan Patterson out, Coleman may get a chance to once again make a case to receive playing time. The best part about his return is his extremely-low salary which will offer a lot of flexibility in roster construction.
Goalies
Alisson-DK $5.8K || FD $14
Alisson will be the chalk keeper on the slate and if you still want a pretty ‘safe’ play, you can pivot off him to Edouard Mendy-DK $5.3K || FD $13. Alisson will get the chance to extend his clean sheet streak against Brighton on Saturday. However, it is slightly concerning with the opposition he faces since they have caused fits for Liverpool before. Nevertheless, Liverpool has the highest odds to win, making Alisson the ‘safest’ keeper on the slate and he is also averaging over 2 saves per match right now.
Jordan Pickford-DK $4.3K || FD $5
Pickford is coming off a strong performance, turning away 8 shots from Liverpool in a 0-0 draw prior to International Break. Thanks to the inconsistency of Everton’s defense and play as a whole, their goalkeepers are generating the best value at the position in the league right now. In Pickford’s last five matches, he is averaging approximately 5 saves per match. Going against a Southampton team who is near the bottom of the table in goals, seems like a recipe for success.
Expected Corner Takers:
Brentford: Jensen
AFC Bournemouth: Tavernier
Chelsea: James/Mount
Crystal Palace: Eze
Newcastle United: Trippier/Fraser
Fulham: Pereira
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/Mac Allister
Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold/Tsimikas
Everton: Gray
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
