RADIO
We're back after the international break and hopefully, we'll have a turnaround in fortunes. The last matchweek was one of "if only's". We correctly predicted Norwich would pick up their first win of the season but the other match picks failed to cash. We managed to bag two picks in the Wolves and Crystal Palace game to break even and go into Sunday only down slightly. But it could've been so much better if a Wolves penalty wasn't overturned by VAR, a decision that would've seen us double our money on the game. Then VAR chalked off a Leicester City winner against Leeds United, something that would've seen us take another profit on the weekend. Alas, it was a losing effort so we'll be looking to get back into winning ways this weekend.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 43-59-5 (+9.35 U)
- Match results: 14-12
Saturday, November 20th, 2021
Brentford (+183) at Newcastle United (+170) - 10:00 am ET
We correctly predicted Norwich City would get their first EPL win of the season against Brentford two weeks ago and we'll be doing the same this week with Newcastle United, the only winless team left in the league. They actually opened the week as underdogs but have been backed into slight favorites so I'd suggest getting in on them as soon as possible.
Although I'm confident in them winning, I can't see how they will lose this game without a horrendous set of circumstances occurring so we'll still hedge with the draw no bet pick as a fallback, just in case. Brentford's loss to Norwich was their fourth straight defeat in the league.
Meanwhile, although without a win, Newcastle's only loss in their last three games came against top of the table Chelsea. New Head Coach Eddie Howe has had over a week to work with the squad (most of whom are not internationals) and most players will be playing for their futures with the new owners likely to invest in new players during the January transfer window. I'm expecting Newcastle to come out of the traps fast this week.
Newcastle will need the fast start as Brentford has only conceded one goal in the second-half in their five away games. Newcastle has only trailed at halftime once in their five home games so any positive result for the home team will likely need to come from a good first 45 minutes.
That also leads me to believe Newcastle will pick up the most bookings. They've received 32 yellow cards in 11 EPL games so far (15 in five home games) while Brentford has been shown 20 yellow cards in their 11 games (12 in five away games). If Newcastle does put in a much more energetic performance, there's a good chance they end up picking up more bookings with some overzealous challenges.
The corners market is also appealing. Brentford has taken just 41 corners this season (19th) while Newcastle has taken just 46 (16th). Newcastle has also conceded just 46 corners (3rd fewest) and Brentford has taken more corners than their opponents just three times this season (once in five away games). I expect Newcastle to also lead the corners regardless of the result.
I'll also be placing a prop bet on Callum Wilson to score in this one. He's scored four of Newcastle's 12 goals this season and the best form of his career came at Bournemouth when Eddie Howe was his manager. If anyone can get the best out of him, it's Eddie Howe.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 - 0 Brentford
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Newcastle United (+170) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Newcastle United (-114) 1.5 units
- To score first half - Newcastle United (+125) 1 unit
- Team most bookings - Newcastle United (-105) 1 unit
- Corners handicap - Newcastle United -0.5 (-102) 1 unit
- Anytime goalscorer - Callum Wilson (+135) 0.5 units
West Ham United (+154) at Wolves (+207) - 10:00 am ET
West Ham comes into the weekend as the only EPL team with four wins in their last four games and just three points off top spot. Last time out, they stunned Liverpool 3-2, ending the only undefeated streak in the league this season. Wolves' loss to Crystal Palace last time out ended their own five-game unbeaten run and they find themselves occupying eighth place, seven points behind this week's opponents.
Wolves have struggled at home this season, with just six of their 16 points coming at home. West Ham's four wins and one draw in their five away games is the joint best away record of the season. It shouldn't come as a surprise that West Ham are favorites and while I do believe they will win, I'm not sure it's as clear-cut as some are making it out to be.
I definitely believe both teams score in this one. Wolves are yet to keep a clean sheet in their five home games this season. West Ham has three clean sheets but two have come against Tottenham and Southampton, who rank 19th and 18th in goals scored respectively.
My only serious reservation about Wolves is they've only played three teams that are currently in the top half of the table. They lost all three without scoring. Two of those three games came in the first three weeks of the season and they've started to show improvements under new Head Coach Bruno Lage so this will be a good benchmark to see how much they have improved.
I see Wolves holding West Ham for most of the game but eventually, coming up short. Wolves have been level at half-time in six of their 11 games this season, while West Ham has gone in at the break all square on five occasions.
West Ham has the best second-half record in the league and in their five away games, have yet to concede a goal in the second-half, whilst scoring eight themselves. Wolves have only scored once in the second half of their five home games leading me to think this could be level at half-time with West Ham coming away with all three points after winning the second half.
I'll also be taking a couple of small prop bets on West Ham's most in-form player. Jarrod Bowen leads the team in assists with four. He's registered two or more shots on target in five games this season and has played no fewer than 78 minutes in all 11 of West Ham's league games. He will have felt hard done by, not to have made the most recent England squad, and could be out to prove a point this weekend.
We can structure our picks in such a way that if Bowen does have two shots on target, scoring at least once, we'll make a profit no matter how the game plays out. Obviously, if he doesn't start the game, we won't back him in any of these markets so hold off until the starting lineup is released an hour before kick-off.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 2 West Ham United
Betting Picks:
- To win either half - West Ham United (-145) 1.5 units
- Half-time/Full-time - Draw/West Ham United (+450) 0.5 units
- Both teams to score - Yes (-128) 1.5 unit
- To score anytime - Jarrod Bowen (+280) 0.5 units
- To get an assist - Jarrod Bowen (+450) 0.5 units
- To have 2+ shots on target - Jarrod Bowen (+450) 0.5 units
Crystal Palace (+170) at Burnley (+189) - 10:00 am ET
Crystal Palace has been the surprise team of the season, currently sitting in tenth place. They've lost just two games this season but won only three times (with six draws). Their two defeats came against Chelsea and Liverpool, and they had a hugely impressive win at Manchester City in matchweek 10.
Burnley has just one win this season, three weeks ago against Brentford (you might have found a trend when it comes to teams getting their first win of the season against Brentford). They're actually unbeaten in their last three league games after an admirable 1-1 draw against table-toppers Chelsea last time out.
Although I've been very impressed with Crystal Palace this season and give them a slight edge, I'm leaning towards another stalemate between two teams that have become accustomed to drawing. Between the two teams, they have drawn 50% of their games.
Crystal Palace's only away win of the season came against Manchester City. Burnley's home record is decent against teams outside the top-7 in the league, with one win and two draws but they lost both home games against top-7 teams. More reasons to believe this ends in a draw.
Crystal Palace's six-game unbeaten run has seen them score in all six games, although the only time they scored more than twice in a game came against Tottenham back in matchweek 4. Burnley struggled for goals to start the season, with just five in their first eight games. But they've scored six in their last three games. Although I don't foresee a high-scoring affair, I do see both teams finding the back of the net this week.
One theme of Crystal Palace games has been their higher-scoring second halves. Of their 15 goals this season, 13 have come in the second half of games, while the 14 goals they've conceded have been split evenly (seven in each half). Burnley's games have seen 28 goals, 15 of which have come in the second half and 13 in the first half.
Burnley's home games have seen them outscore their opponents 4-1 in the first halves, but that's reversed in the second halves, being outscored themselves 1-4. Crystal Palace's five away games have seen them be outscored 1-5 in the first halves, but are 5-5 in the second halves. Everything is pointing towards more goals in the second half of this one, especially from the away side.
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Crystal Palace
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Draw (+227) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Crystal Palace (-116) 1 unit
- Both teams to score- Yes (-112) 1 unit
- Team most bookings - Burnley (-115) 1 unit
- Team to score second-half - Crystal Palace (-125) 1 unit
- Highest scoring half - Second half (+100) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
