Dynasty Tiered Rankings and Analysis (Quarterbacks)

May 16, 2019

Tiered rankings and analysis for quarterbacks in dynasty leagues. Justin Carter breaks down the QB ranks for owners in dynasty and keeper fantasy football leagues for 2019.

We've finished our post-draft dynasty rankings here at RotoBaller, which means that it's time to look at those rankings by tier and discuss them.

Youth rules the day in these rankings, with three of our top four quarterbacks entering their second or third seasons. But not every dynasty owner is planning for the future, so throughout this analysis, I'll also be highlighting places where someone in win-now mode can take advantage of the depressed value for veteran players.

Below, you'll find our entire top-62 quarterbacks, plus analysis of the different tiers. When you're done, you can also check out our analysis on running backs and tight ends for dynasty.

QB Dynasty Rankings (May 2019)

Tier 1

Four players make up our first tier. Patrick Mahomes -- fresh off winning the MVP in his first year as a starter -- is the obviously choice for first overall and is the only quarterback who you should even think about in the second or third rounds of a non-Superflex dynasty start up. Mahomes has the arm to make any throw and the ability to evade pressure, and while you can likely expect some regression this year, he seems like a lock to be a top-five fantasy quarterback, barring injury, for the next decade or so.

Luck is second in the rankings, though I had him as my third quarterback. When Luck is healthy, he's one of the NFL's best throwers, but he's also not far removed from missing an entire season with shoulder issues. Deshaun Watson is younger and adds in a rushing attack that Luck doesn't bring, but he's also got durability concerns.

Then there's Baker Mayfield, who was a huge riser after his rookie campaign with the Browns. Mayfield's got a good arm. He's mobile. He fits the mold of this new kind of NFL quarterback that can run these spread offenses. He's got good weapons around him, including Odell Beckham Jr. But Mayfield's likely to be a little lower down your rankings if you're interested in winning sooner, even if he's a great long term asset.

Tier 2

Three names here. Two of them should be obvious and would be contenders for the first tier if they had a few less years on them: Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

Rodgers is Rodgers, a guy who'll be in contention for a top-five fantasy finish every year until he retires. But he's also, somehow, already 35 years old, which seems slightly shocking to me.

Wilson isn't 35, but he is on the wrong side of 30 now and has dealt with injury concerns in recent seasons. Wilson's ability to extend plays makes him a great fantasy option, but the injuries might add up more in his 30s than they did in his 20s.

And Carson Wentz would be in that first tier if not for his injury history. He's played 24 games over the past two seasons and while his upside is immense, there's enough uncertainty to knock him down to seven.

Tier 3

I would probably put Goff in the third tier, just because he's a young quarterback in a prolific offense and that makes me place him just a step above the other guys on this tier.

Tier 3 is a long one, and these guys are all really solid fantasy options who, for one reason or another, have a ceiling that's capped below the guys above them. For some, like Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, it's because they're a little older and don't have as much long term dynasty value.

For others, like Mitch Trubisky and Kirk Cousins, just don't seem like guys who have the ability to have sustained, high-level fantasy success. But all of these guys are startable fantasy options and are solid picks at the tail end of the top-100.

Tier 4

Dak Prescott opens our fourth tier, and Prescott might be one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football because no one really knows how to value him.

Prescott helped me win a re-draft league last year. He's been extremely solid in each of his NFL seasons, as evidenced by the fact that his worse fantasy finish in his three seasons was QB11 in 2017. Prescott should be in everyone's re-draft top 12, and his age makes you think he'd be higher in dynasty.

And yet, Prescott's game-to-game consistency is an issue and he's boosting his fantasy stats by his efficient red zone rushing ability. Prescott's throwing numbers have gone through ups and downs, but with Amari Cooper likely in Dallas for the long haul, things should keep trending up for Prescott.

This tier also has Kyler Muray, who has the chance to be the biggest riser of anyone when we do our 2020 dynasty rankings. For now, we still need to see if his size will be a disadvantage, if he can hold up with the beating he'll likely receive behind the Cardinals offensive line, and if he can make all the throws he needs to make at this level. Murray will go through growing pains, but a dynasty owner whose eyes are set firmly on the future would be wise to reach a little early for Murray.

Jameis Winston falls to QB17 in our rankings. He's fighting for his future this year, and a disappointing year for the Buccaneers could lead to Winston being replaced. Yes, he's young, but be wary.

Tier 5

Here's the "old guys who can give you a solid season or so" tier, with Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees. All three are a tier ahead of fellow old man Tom Brady because 1) Rivers and Roethlisberger are more likely to play longer and 2) Brees is more likely to put up QB1 numbers this season, making him more valuable for owners in a position to win now.

Matthew Stafford is here too, and after a very disappointing 2018 campaign that led to rumors the Lions might want to draft a QB, his value is as low as its ever been. But Stafford also had three straight top-10 fantasy finishes before plummeting to QB20 last year, so don't be afraid to not give up on him.

And then there's Josh Allen, who is tall and fast. Can he be more than that? The Bills have given him more weapons, so this year will be key to deciding that.

Tier 6

OH BOY THIS TIER.

Tom Brady, Derek Carr, and Josh Rosen were, in order, our 24th, 25th, and 26th quarterbacks in the rankings. These three are all in varying situations that make their value to individual dynasty owners tough to judge.

Let's start with Brady, who will be 42 when the season starts. 42-year-old quarterbacks shouldn't be good, and Brady was just the fantasy QB14 last year, so his tumble down these rankings makes sense. But we also thought back in 2016 that Brady was on his last legs and he followed that up with a QB3 finish the next year, so we can't completely give up on Brady.

But these are dynasty rankings, and we can't justify putting a player who's on his last legs in the top-20 at the quarterback position. Brady's valuable at this point only for dynasty owners who are fully committed to winning a championship this season, because nothing beyond 2019 is guaranteed.

Derek Carr, meanwhile, has had some great moments in the past and also some rough moments; he has one top-10 fantasy finish at the quarterback position and has finished at the tail end of the top-20 the last two years. Carr has new weapons this year and could use those to propel him back into QB1 range, but there are so many whispers about the Raiders moving on from Carr in the future that he feels a lot like a more consistent version of Blake Bortles -- you're fine with him in Superflex, but in a single-QB dynasty league, you just don't want to be relying on him.

And Rosen? Well, last year was a disaster and he was traded to a Dolphins team that's pretty bereft of talent, but he's also a year removed from being a first-round pick by Arizona. He's an accurate passer, but he's also reportedly competing for his starting job with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and hearing that Fitzpatrick could even potentially start over Rosen is a bad sign. I'm still holding onto Rosen in the one dynasty league where I have him, but I can't say I feel great about it.

Tier 7

Marcus Mariota is too low. Andy Dalton is probably too high. Nick Foles is my pick for "guy who vanishes from fantasy consideration after 2019" because I'm just not as sold on him as some people are.

Haskins is the interesting play here. His short term value isn't great since we don't know if he'll be the team's starter, but the rookie has a great arm and is your quintessential pocket passer. I get the worries about his foot speed and if he'll be able to evade pressure at all, and I also get that Washington doesn't have the best receiving weapons, but I love Haskins' arm. He's got a shot to be incredibly important to this team moving forward and a big fantasy riser after the 2019 season.

Tier 8

Honestly, this tier bores me. Bridgewater could still be good, but I think his ceiling is "guy who finishes in the QB15 range." Joe Flacco and Drew Lock are both unexciting options on the Broncos, and I guess in Superflex you could own both and start Flacco until Lock replaces him, but I don't think either guy is potentially elite. And Ryan Tannehill might have a chance to unseat Marcus Mariota, but I don't really believe it'll happen.

Tier 9

Garrett Gilbert was the best quarterback in the AAF and should be Baker Mayfield's backup. He's 35th here because he showed that he still has a ton of potential, but Cleveland's not a great spot to show that potential.

Eli Manning and Daniel Jones are 294 and 295 in our rankings and I hope everyone else ranked them together for the lulz, because I know I did. Manning is an unstartable fantasy option until he gets replaced; Jones is an unstartable fantasy option once he takes over for Manning. Yes, this seems harsh, but Jones showed basically nothing at Duke to suggest he's going to be a good NFL quarterback, the Giants traded their best wide receiver, and we don't even know when he'll be starting in the NFL. When it's time to pick in your dynasty draft and you're thinking about Jones, there's probably a better pick to make.

Also, Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick are here. Both guys could start games, though Keenum is more likely to than Fitzpatrick. Some Superflex appeal, but not much.

Also, shout out to Blake Bortles, who is going to be a very good backup quarterback this year and potentially into the future unless someone takes the risk on starting him again.

Tier 10

Is Jarrett Stidham the eventual Tom Brady replacement? Probably not, but any Brady Superflex owner should handcuff themselves with Stidham just in case.

Tyrod Taylor is actually a really interesting player in Los Angeles. I've gone on the record a lot of times as saying that Taylor is a starting NFL quarterback. He's agile. He doesn't throw interceptions. He put up solid numbers with a Bills team that put nothing around him.

But Philip Rivers is going to be the Chargers' starting quarterback until he retires because he's still really good, so Taylor's stuck as one of the NFL's best backup passers for now.

Tier 11 and lower

Lots of names here that are a step away from being starters due to injuries.

One I want to zero in on and talk about: Gardner Minshew. The Jaguars, who signed Nick Foles in the offseason, picked Minshew in the sixth round this year, and if he can earn the number-two job in Jacksonville, he's got a decent shot to see the field. Remember: Nick Foles has been very good when playing for the Eagles and fairly nondescript when not playing for the Eagles, and while I know that's not the analytical takes you came here to read, we're talking players who are low in our rankings and who you aren't likely to rely on in your leagues.

But hey, Minshew! He's an Air Raid guy, and we've seen those kinds of quarterbacks have more and more success in the league. He's a rookie, so he has age on his side, something you like to see in a dynasty prospect. He completed over 70 percent of his passes last year. He's got a cool mustache. Good things!

I like Jacoby Brissett. I like C.J. Beathard, but less than I like Brissett. We're on Tier 12, so I'm not going to expand on those statements.

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