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With the uncertainty of opening day, there is no better time to play in an MLB Fantasy Dynasty League. Due to the league format, it by far the most unaffected by the delay of Opening Day. Drafting and trading can proceed in full force as the value assigned to these players go long beyond this shortened season.
When trading in a dynasty league, a player’s future production needs to be weighed much more heavily than in standard redraft leagues. The players recommended to be sold in this article are clearly highly valued, but the return their current price tag will bring is greater than their future dynasty production, therefore making them perfect trade candidates.
Without further ado, let's take a look at my top recommended dynasty buys and sells!
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Sell! Sell! Sell!
Justin Verlander (SP, HOU)
According to Fantasypros, Justin Verlander’s average draft position is around 16th overall in standard redraft leagues, behind only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer at his position. In dynasty leagues, the Astros ace falls to an ADP of 54th. Clearly owners are already taking into account Verlander’s advanced age and off-season groin injury, but not enough. At 54th overall, he is still the 14th starting pitcher off the board, and ahead of promising young bats like Ketel Marte and Victor Robles.
There is no denying that the old-school workhorse pitcher has been a stud his whole career. In his 14 full seasons in the majors, he’s only thrown fewer than 200 innings twice and it has not happened since 2015. In fact, it’s only going to take 18 more innings to put him at 3,000 career innings pitched, but that's the problem. All good things come to an end and at 37 years old, the veteran's value is soon going to be on a steep decline. After he received the Cy Young award in 2019, this is the perfect time to sell him at his absolute height.
His numbers last season were still sensational and it's almost impossible to find a flaw. With that being said, he was more prone to giving up the longball than ever last year. He had a 1.45 HR/9, giving up 36 total, both career highs to go along with the fact his ERA (2.58) outperformed his FIP (3.27) by a significant margin. In addition, the former Tigers' BABIP was a career-low .218. whilst leaving 88.4% of runners stranded on base, by far the most in baseball and a staggering 4.4% more than Clayton Kershaw who finished second in that category.
The eight-time All-Star had groin surgery in the off-season and it's unclear how much that will affect him moving forward, but it could be an indication that a 200-inning workload may not be the guarantee it always has been. And if he is affected, perhaps his numbers will more closely resemble his sub-par 2019 postseason.
The drop-off will come, it's just a question of when, and it's always better to sell too early than too late. Realistically the 2017 World Series champion will be his ace-like self this year. That's why you should identify the owner in your league who is in position to go all-in on winning this year and trade the five-time AL strikeout leader for a king’s ransom of young assets to put your team in a position succeed for the next decade.
Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS)
Now for our next sell-high candidate. The ace whose team bested Verlander and the Astros to be crowned 2019 World Series champions, Stephen Strasberg. The man who just signed a brand new seven-year, $245 million dollar contract. The first-overall pick in 2009 is the next pitcher taken after Verlander in standard leagues and is rightfully deemed more valuable in dynasty with an ADP of 40.5.
The 2019 World Series MVP finally stayed healthy and realized his full potential last season. However, that’s the biggest cause for concern. Including the postseason, this injury-prone pitcher hurled 245.1 innings in 2019, by far a career-high.
The three-time All-Star's stock hasn’t been this high in years, largely due to his postseason heroics. Take advantage of owners viewing him through the Madison Bumgarner postseason stud glasses. In reality, last season wasn't that much of an outlier compared to his prior seasons. It was still very very good, it's just hard to imagine it will get much better.
His 3.32 ERA was 16th in baseball amongst qualifying pitchers. For dynasty purposes, it's important to note only six starters were older than Strasberg. His strikeout rate in 2019 was a nice 29.8%, but that's only 0.7% higher than his career average. Similarly, his 6.7% BB% was actually 0.2 higher than his career average of 6.5%. This should illustrate that Strasburg didn't make much of a jump last year, he just did it on a bigger stage.
A big reason for his success last year was his .274 BABIP, his lowest since 2013. However, this season he will be without his stud third baseman, Anthony Rendon. Fangraphs ranked the two-time Silver Slugger as the second-best fielder at the hot corner last year (36.6 DEF,) behind only Matt Chapman (40.8,) and ahead of Nolan Arenado (35.3.) In comparison, Carter Kieboom is currently slated to be the primary third baseman, who in eleven games last season posted a -2.2 DEF.
Strasberg relies a lot on hitters chasing his pitches out of the zone, possessing a career 45.0 zone percentage. However, last season he took it to another level, throwing off the plate more than ever (39.3 Zone%,) correlating with a huge jump in his curveball usage. He actually threw his curve (30.6%) more than his four-seam fastball (29.8%) last season, a fastball clocked at a career-low 93.9 mph.
He tried to compensate for the drop in velocity by reintroducing a sinker that he hadn’t featured since 2012, but it didn't help. The sinker ended up being his worst pitch, with a .342 WOBA, slightly worse than his fastball (.327 WOBA.)
The three-time All-Star is relying on his curveball more than ever, meaning if hitters sit on a fastball and limit chasing out of the zone, Strasburg may see a substantial dip in production. Given his prior injury history, his public perception, and the fading fastball, it's optimal to sell as high as you can and grab a younger, safer ace in return.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B, STL)
Abandon ship while there is still time. I’m sure that’s what Cardinals GM Mike Girsch is thinking too. To be fair, the six-time All-Star finished with a respectable 97 runs, 97 RBI, and 34 HRs in his first season with the Cardinals. Don’t be fooled though, Goldy is 32 going on 40, and his batted ball data was by far the worst since his rookie year.
Being a Silver Slugger and All-Star as recently as 2018 may give some owners hope that he will bounce back. However, that seems highly improbable. In addition to his decline in production, it is being reported by the St. Louis Post that he is still going to the Cardinals spring training complex to receive treatment for his sore elbow. It doesn't take a doctor to think that it doesn't exactly bode well if the injury is causing enough discomfort that it needs to be treated at the team facility during these times.
Looking back, his last down year was in 2016 when Goldschmidt only delivered 24 home runs and a .192 ISO. On the other hand, that year he still provided immense fantasy value with a .411 OBP, and 32 Stolen bases. In 2020, he no longer has the athleticism to compensate for his diminishing skills at the plate. According to Fangraphs his Offensive rating in 2018 was seventh overall at 41.0. In 2019 his rating was 17.3, good for 51st.
As a hitter gets older, his bat slows down, a great way to analyze that is to see how he does against the fastball. Before 2019, the former Diamondback's career-low vs. the fastball was .309. In 2020, it dropped all the way down to .256, and that was with a .302 BABIP. He did improve against off-speed and breaking pitches but if his regression in power and bat speed continue then opposing pitchers can lean on hammering the zone against the veteran. In fact, he already faces fastballs 60% of the time.
A combination of age, injury, and a big name makes Paul Goldschmidt the perfect sell-high candidate. His stock certainly isn’t as high as it was in his Arizona days, but at this stage, it seems like he may soon follow in the footsteps of Joey Votto and become more and more irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
Get 'Em While They're Hot!
Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN)
The continued undervaluing of Eugenio Suarez is a puzzling one. He’s 28 years old, came second in the Majors with 49 HRs last year, and is on a team that added big-time bats in Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos this offseason. Even if his recent shoulder surgery saps a little bit of raw power, the season postponement means he won't start on the IL. That's a fair trade-off.
Third base is a position overflowing with high-value fantasy assets, but even so, Suarez is being drafted too low as the 10th third baseman in dynasty, being valued behind Yoan Moncada and Manny Machado. The 2018 All-Star was eight points clear of Alex Bregman for most HRs at his position in 2019, and seventh in the league with a .301 ISO. It's crystal clear that with a 46.7% hard-hit rate, a 14.0%-barrel percentage, and a 17.8 average launch angle Suarez will still be a great asset even with some regression.
The one moderate cause for concern is his plate discipline. A 28.5% strikeout rate is too high, however, it’s a worthy tradeoff for the power production. In the three seasons prior to last year, Suarez averaged a 23.8% strikeout rate, but it wasn’t until the former Tiger started gripping and ripping that his breakout came. In fact, fantasy studs like Trevor Story (26.5%,) Peter Alonso (26.4%), and Ronald Acuna Jr. (26.3%) all struck out a comparable amount, yet Suarez was tied with Acuna for the highest BB% amongst that group (10.6%). Major League players are worrying less and less about strikeouts and so should fantasy owners, as long as the OBP is respectable and in Suarez’s case (.358) it is.
It’s unlikely that Suarez will improve on his gaudy 2019 numbers but there’s no reason to think that his breakout was not legitimate. If he produces close to the same way in 2020 he will be right behind Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, and the other top tier third baseman, for a fraction of the price.
Lance McCullers Jr. (SP, HOU)
In redraft leagues, Lance McCullers Jr. has an ADP of 188. In dynasty leagues, he is going in the same range as Jake Odorizzi and Marcus Stroman. This is a player who was cruising in 2018 before his season was derailed by Tommy John surgery. Yes, he’ll be on an innings restriction this year, but with this shortened season it essentially becomes a non-factor in dynasty leagues. If a fantasy owner can acquire this future ace then he’ll be an asset for years to come.
In his four-year Major League career, the 2017 All-Star has a 10.10 K/9, a 3.31 XFIP, and is always in the top five at inducing groundballs: 54.9% in 2019 and a staggering 61.3% in 2018. The top groundball pitchers usually come with the downside of a low strikeout rate. For example, Marcus Stroman is always one of the league leaders in this category but his career-high K/9 is only 7.76.
The 2017 World Series champion is considered to have one of the best curveballs in the league. It’s been his most dominant and most used pitch (44.5% career) since his rookie season and for good reason. In 2017, it had an XBA of .198 and of the 132 batters he struck out in 118.2 innings, 108 of them were sat down with the curve. This bodes well for McCullers' comeback from Tommy John surgery as he isn’t overly reliant on throwing with heat.
The Astros need McCullers to step up big for them in 2020. Last time he was healthy they had Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, and Charlie Morton. They don't have those stud arms to fall back on anymore so grab him on the cheap and he’ll step up big for your fantasy team too.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B, TOR)
It’s rare that a player ranked 14th overall in dynasty drafts can be considered a buy-low candidate, but that’s the case with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This kid is a generational talent that can become the best bat on your dynasty team for the next decade.
Guerrero made such light work of minor league pitchers that the Blue Jays had no choice but to call him up in 2019. He was 20 at the time, played in 123 games, but ultimately did not live up to the high expectations he set for himself. He struck out 17.7% of the time and only hit 15 HRs. Furthermore, his batted ball data shows this lack of production was warranted. Admittedly, a .162 ISO, a 34.4% hard-hit rate, and a 49.6% groundball rate was not what was expected from the Dominican slugger.
However, the former No. 1 overall prospect is still only 21 years old. In 91 games in 2018, between Double-A and Triple-A, Guerrero had a .369 batting average, a 1.049 OPS, and a 9.0% strikeout rate. Once he adjusts to big league pitching, and he will, then this is a guy who can win leagues for fantasy owners.
It was the breaking stuff that Vladdy had a problem with in 2019. He had a .234 XBA and a 38.1 Whiff % against big-league breaking balls, and a 77.3% contact rate overall. Judging by his minor league numbers it won't be long before he gets a better eye for that style of pitch.
An important note is that a big reason for Guerrero's underwhelming production is because he is already being treated like one of the game’s best by opposing pitchers. Only seven qualifying hitters saw a fewer percent of pitches in the zone in 2019, (37.8 zone %,) Christian Yelich, Pete Alonso, Bryce Harper, Josh Bell, Eddie Rosario, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez. Out of all of those All-Stars, Vlad had the highest zone contact rate at 87.2%. Once he sees the plate better and waits for strikes he can really begin to unlock his potential.
Clearly the league knows what the Homerun Derby runner-up is capable of. He brings more to the table than just raw power, and yet he had the hardest-hit home run last year (118.9 MPH EV). Even if it takes him a few more seasons to truly be a Silver Slugger candidate, he most certainly will improve on last year's performance and his price tag will only go up.
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